Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed March 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong SE swell building Wed, holding Thurs morning before easing
• Small mix of surf this weekend
• Building levels of E swell Tues, tending to strong E/NE swell Wed, peaking Thurs, winds a problem

Recap

Solid surf in the 4ft range was on offer yesterday with light S to SE winds. Today surf has continued to build, up into the 5ft range from the E/SE with mod to fresh SE winds on offer. 

This week and next week (Mar 9 - 19)

The squeeze between a 1001 hPa low off the South Coast and 1030 hPa high moving through the Eastern Bight is producing a line of gales off the NSW South Coast, extending northwards up to the Hunter and southwards into the Tasman Sea.  The southern part of the fetch is well aimed for Tasmania’s Easy Coast, even though the strongest winds are to the north.

Size from this SE fetch should hold in the 3-5ft range through the morning tomorrow, before easing during the day. As the low tracks SE winds along the coast will be steered more SSW to S’ly through Thursday, opening up surf spots compared to the SE winds today.

By Friday swell will tend more S/SE and size will drop from the 3ft range down into the 2ft range. Winds should be on the improve, starting SW then tending to variable sea breezes.

The weekend sees only a small blend of swells with Sat in the 2ft range or less and light NW to N winds.

A small amount of NE windswell pops up Sunday as high pressure in the Tasman shifts across to New Zealand and NE winds develop off the South Coast. There’s not a great deal of strength in the winds, but it should see wave heights build to 2ft with NE winds.

Small amounts of leftover NE swell pad out Mon morning as a new high pressure ridge builds in quickly bringing SSE winds. 

Into next week and the outlook looks dynamic, with a new reinforcing high migrating across the Tasman and a fetch of E’ly winds aimed straight at East Coast Tasmania. This will see surf build Tues up into the 3ft range, bulking up further through Wed into the 4ft range before peaking Thursday with solid 4-5ft surf from the E/NE. Winds will be a factor with E to NE direction through this period.

There’s no letup until Fri, as swells begin to ease, so you’ll have to tolerate some unruly conditions.

Longer term and a cold front and low looks to sweep across the state next weekend, bringing a cooler SW change and a possible S swell.

Check back Fri for a fresh  update.