Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov8)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Modest S swell pulse Thurs PM with SW winds
• S swell easing back Fri with S to SE winds
• Small SE/ESE swell Sat/Sun with winds tending W'ly on Sun
• Stronger S swell pulse Mon/Tues next week with SW winds
• More S swell likely later next week, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Nothing much of interest surf-wise since the last f/cast. Tiny surf in the 1ft range yesterday has continued at similar size and energy into today, with light N’ly winds. Tomorrow sees a pattern change as a low consolidates E of the Island.

This week and next week (Nov10-19)

The low forming just to the E of Tasmania overnight sees fresh SW to S’ly winds develop through the day tomorrow, with a quick rise in S swell expected through the day. Expect under-sized surf early to build into the 4ft range. 

This size holds into Fri morning before easing but winds don’t look great. S’ly winds at moderate strength tend more SE as the low moves away during the day and a ridge builds with winds tending more SE through the day.

Leftover S swell in the 2-3ft range provides surfable waves Sat but the ridge maintains an onshore flow through the day so keep expectations pegged low. SE swell from winds below the low should provide reinforcing swell in the 2-3ft range during the day.

Some residual SE swell from a weak fetch below Thursday’s low should see 2ft waves on Sunday, more likely in the a’noon, with a cold front bringing a fresh WNW to WSW flow through the day.

As the cold front sweeps up into the Tasman, linked to a deep mid-latitude low, SW gales adjacent to Tasmania generate a robust S swell through Mon. 

That’s likely to see surf build into the 4ft range through Mon, increasing further into Tuesday morning with more SW winds, tending W’ly through the day. 

Further into next week and another S swell surge is likely later next week, Thursday at this stage as a low forms. Models are still diverging on the outcome but further low pressure development is likely in the Tasmanian swell window next week

Check back Fri for a fresh update and a last look at the weekend f/cast.