Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep13)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• SSE swell Tues, easing to tiny/flat until Fri
• NE windswell building Fri PM, peaking Sat AM, dropping rapidly PM
• S swell likely late Mon, peaking Tues, stay tuned for details

Recap

The weekend featured tiny surf on the Nor-East coast of Tasmania with only marginal, barely rideable surf. Surf has built today as a high pressure ridge develops off the East Coastline with a proximate fetch of S/SE winds to Tasmania. This fetch will move away through tomorrow with easing surf expected and improving winds as the ridge slackens.

This  week and weekend (Sep13-Sep 19)

This week will be dominated by a low in the Tasman, which is expected to form tomorrow along a NW-SE angled trough line extending from far NENSW across the Tasman sea down to the North Island. This low is too far north to be a swell producer for NETas so a slow moving high drifting in from the bight and expected to sit over Tasmania for the first half of the week will be the main factor in the surf, or lack thereof.

High pressure straddling Tasmania brings a weak and variable wind flow through the week up to Fri, with tiny surf expected and settled conditions.

Friday the low moves nor-east into the Tasman and a series of approaching fronts begins to tighten the pressure gradient along the western flank of the high. This strengthens a northerly flow adjacent to the NSW South Coast and extending through Bass Strait. 

Fri a’noon will see a late building trend in NE windswell with size expected to reach the 2-3ft mark. Local winds should remain relatively light as the fetch is located further north.

This swell is expected to build overnight and be in the 4-5ft range Sat morning with winds tending NNE, before clocking NW as a front approaches the state. 

Expect size to rapidly roll off through the day as the fetch migrates E out of the swell window.

The next surfable day is expected to be late Mon, into Tuesday as a series of fronts and deep lows pass the state. A front brings a proximate fetch of SW gales close to Tasmania during Mon, with winds swinging from the WNW to WSW as the front passes. 

This should see S facing beaches build late Mon peaking Tuesday in the 4ft range. 

Further frontal activity is likely to bring more small S swell later next week, check back Wed as we update the situation.