Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 29th January)

Best Days: Tomorrow selected locations, southern corners Sun AM and Tue AM

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large easing NE swell tomorrow with N/NW winds ahead of a strong, late afternoon S/SE change
• Easing NE swell Sun with S/SW tending E/SE winds
• Small NE windswell Mon with N/NE winds, cleaner Tue AM with a S/SW change

Recap

Workable, easing S'ly windswell yesterday (from Wednesday's change), while today we've got a building N/NE swell as winds strengthen right off our coast. This is the interaction between a surface trough/low pushing east against a strong high in the Tasman Sea.

This weekend and next week (Jan 30 – Feb 5)

The current setup with the trough/low squeezing the high in the Tasman Sea will see winds continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening as the trough keeps pushing east.

This will see winds remain strong and aimed right into us, only moving away from us tomorrow morning as the trough pushes offshore.

Wave heights will continue to build this afternoon, with a peak due tomorrow morning to the 5-6ft range out of the NE along with N/NW winds. We should see winds shift strong S/SE into the late afternoon/evening, but the swell will be smaller and on the ease. Try northern corners in the morning and south corners later.

Come Sunday the swell will be dropping rapidly from 2-3ft with a S/SW tending SE-E/SE breeze.

Moving into next week we've got a couple of flukey swell sources as a trough deepens across the state Monday, with an infeed of NE winds right off our coast due to move more offshore Tuesday. This doesn't look to generate much over 2ft at this stage, cleanest Tuesday with a S'ly change.

Beyond this the outlook is too uncertain locally to speculate about, so check back here on Monday for the latest on what's expected through the rest of next week. There is the E/NE groundswell from the tropical activity north of New Zealand but this looks to be shifted back to next weekend. See you Monday and have a great weekend!