Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Wednesday 20th April)

Best Days: Saturday

Recap: 

Small hints of northeasterly energy were in the water yesterday, with easterly background energy filling in today without much more than 1ft breaking across the open beaches.

On the plus side however, conditions have remained generally clean under light winds swinging from west/northwest through to the north at times.

This week (Thursday 21st - Friday 22nd):

The remainder of the week is looking fairly benign, with small background energy filling in from our southern window, generated by poorly aligned and weak frontal activity.

Friday is still on track to see a slight pulse of easterly energy off a modest easterly fetch which has been residing off the North Island of New Zealand, although fairly underwhelming with occasional sets in the 1-2ft range across open beaches during the afternoon.

A southerly change looks to move up the coast late on Thursday, although weak and brief. A small, local southerly windswell is due to build throughout Friday as a result, although only modest with low quality peaks struggling to reach the 2ft range.

Despite the lack of size, the majority of Thursday looks to remain clean under a northwesterly airflow only swinging southwesterly preceding the aforementioned change.

Following the weak change, light breezes look to dominate from the southwest, with the chance of an early westerly breeze first thing.

This weekend (Saturday 23rd - Sunday 24th):

The weekend is looking much more dynamic, with a number of short range and long range systems kicking off in the days leading up.

The initial, less favourable system is currently moving south of WA with a modest sized westerly fetch with core winds of 30-40kts. The storm track of this system is poor however with models suggesting that it’ll drift south and weaken.

A second follow up system looks to develop south of SA with stronger more elongated fetches of 40-45kts. Unfortunately as this system moves south of Tasmania, it looks to weaken and become disjointed.

The long range energy off these two system don’t look to provide any decent size on Saturday due to the southwesterly direction, however trailing fetches in the wake of the second system have the potential to provide an increase in size throughout the afternoon to around 2-3ft at south facing beaches.

Meanwhile, the effects of an easterly trade fetch north of New Zealand look to fill in, with open beaches picking up options in the 1-2ft range later on Sunday and into Monday.

Light west/southwesterly breezes are expected to continue each morning of the weekend, with a northeasterly seabreeze developing as the day wears on.

Next week (Monday 25th onward):

Southwesterly fetches off the backside of the weekend’s system should maintain energy throughout Monday, although really only slowing an otherwise easing trend. South facing beaches should continue a slow decline from the 2ft range, further on Tuesday.

Clean options should be on offer virtually for much of the day on Monday and Tuesday as northwesterly breezes persist ahead of the next front.