Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Wed 1st Feb)

This week and next week (Feb1-Feb10)

Central QLD: Still an insipid outlook ahead 

The unstable pattern continues with a small trough of low pressure lingering off the Central NSW Coast, linked to tropical cloud bands and moisture streaming in from the Northern Monsoon. This unstable, humid pattern lasts through the week before a winter-calibre mid-latitude low blasts a clearing W’ly flow across temperate NSW, with a S’ly change for the sub-tropics. 

No change to the outlook this week with N’ly flow down the Coral Sea and tiny/flat surf expected.

Tradewinds and a distant South Pacific depression may see a small kick in  E/SE swell over there weekend to 1-1.5ft but keep expectations low.

We see a high pressure ridge build up the QLD coast next week but models runs are progressively weakening the trade flow through the Coral Sea with a possibility we may see a trough drag the flow southwards, through Tues/Wed next week.

Thus we can only really suggest a small increase in SE-ESE swell Tues/Wed next week likely easing into the end of next week.

Instability remains a feature along a monsoon trough across the Arafura Sea, extending through the Gulf of Carpentaria and out into the Coral Sea and South Pacific. Models are not suggesting any discreet low pressure development along this trough line through the short/medium term and but we’ll keep monitoring for signs of life.

In the meantime it’s back to tiny surf and N’ly winds. 

Check back Fri for the latest.