Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Wed 28th Dec)

This week and next week (Dec28-Jan6)

Central QLD: Fun surf continues into the New Years weekend

Plenty of fun surf since the last f/cast with 2-3ft surf across exposed breaks, smaller elsewhere and continuing mod/fresh SE winds.

Lots more fun surf to come

The building blocks for a classic Summer monsoonal pattern are now firmly in place and almost the entire Eastern Seaboard from the Tropic of Capricorn to Tasmania is going receive swell as a result of it.  A dual-centred high straddles New Zealand with an elongated monsoonal low pressure trough located in the Coral Sea and extending into the near South Pacific. This is creating a long and broad E’ly fetch which is slowly extending southwards. As we near the end of the week, a more discrete surface low hives off the end of the monsoonal low pressure trough and retrogrades back into the Tasman Sea as it intensifies, generating  E/SE’ly swells over the last days of 2022 and first days of 2023.

Expect size to continue in he 2-3ft range tomorrow with SE winds.

We should see a slight dip in size through Fri as the fetch begins to migrate southwards, although 2ft surf will hold rideable waves.

Into the New Years weekend and SE winds continue as reinforcing high pressure re-sets the ridge up the QLD coast. We’ll see a mix of E swell and E/SE groundswell from a low out past New Zealand that will rebuild wave heights into the 2-3ft range, although more inconsistent.

Low in the Coral Sea maintains plenty of surf over New Years weekend

This swell should hold into Mon before we see an easing trend later Mon and continuing on into the rest of next week as the tropical low drifts into the Tasman , out of the CQ swell window.

Longer term and the monsoon trough remains active although models have cooled on the prospect of a cyclone in the Coral Sea. Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up but for now there’s plenty of action on the radar.