Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (issued on Mon 26th Dec)

This week and next week (Dec26-Jan6)

Central QLD: Days of surf ahead as slow moving low occupies the Coral Sea

Not much surf over the Xmas weekend with tiny/flat conditions. Surf is building now through Boxing Day a’noon as 20kt plus winds form a large fetch in the Southern Coral Sea focusing on the Capricorn Channel.

We’re now on the cusp of a dynamic, tropical induced blocking pattern with low pressure hiving off an active monsoon trough in the Coral Sea and meandering in Coral Sea before drifting down into the Northern Tasman. The high pressure belt holds good support for this low pressure area with reinforcing cells stacking onto a slow moving system located at South Island latitudes. This will see an extended E’ly swell event, with days of pumping E/SE swell ahead.

In the short run and the trend will continue upwards through Tues and until Thurs at least as a trough of low-pressure forms off the Monsoon trough line and anchors a broad fetch of SE-ESE strong winds through the Coral Sea. Expect surf to build into the 2-3ft range at exposed locations on the Burnett, smaller elsewhere.

A slight dip in size is expected Fri as the low pressure complex moves south, dragging the fetch away from the CQ swell window. 

Expect size in the 1-2ft range Fri with SE winds.

Size builds again over the weekend as longer period E/SE swell fills in from a low in the South Pacific. This swell source will only show at locations with exposed access to the Capricorn Channel with sets to 3ft+ expected and long waits for sets and continuing SSE-SE winds.

Into the first week of the New Year and we’ll see slow easing in size through Mon and Tues as winds ease in the Coral Sea and become aimed at targets to the south.

Longer term and cyclogenesis looks likely off the Far North QLD coast next week- with another tropical depression or cyclone forming in the South Pacific near Tonga. It’s too far out to have confidence in the surf potential for our region from these systems but we’re certainly in a very active tropical phase so check back in Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up. More surf looks highly likely.

Plenty to keep us occupied in the run up to NYE!