September continues to pump
Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 8th September)
Best Days: Every day over the coming period (smallest Friday and Saturday morning)
This week and next week (Sep 9 - 18)
A large and inconsistent S/SW groundswell is breaking across the region today and this is expected to ease through the rest of the week, down from an inconsistent 8ft on the sets across exposed breaks tomorrow, smaller Thursday and bottoming out Friday to 3-5ft.
From the weekend we'll see some new and good SW groundswell filling in, followed by a larger and long-period S/SW groundswell for Monday.
The SW groundswell is currently being generated by a strong and high riding frontal system in the central Indian Ocean, aiming a fetch of SW gales through our swell window.
The high riding nature and favourable projection of the system should produce a good and fairly consistent SW groundswell for Saturday afternoon, reaching 6ft+ across exposed breaks later in the day, holding a similar size through Sunday.
Into Monday though we'll see a much larger and more powerful S/SW groundswell pushing in, generated by a vigorous polar low projecting a captured fetch of severe-gale to storm-force S/SW winds up towards Western Australia. This system will be projected towards us under the influenced of the Long Wave Trough, with the fetch moving at a similar speed to the swell it's creating.
A large and fairly consistent S/SW groundswell should result, building through Monday and peaking into the afternoon to a large 10-12ft across exposed breaks. Our model is over-forecasting the size for this swell due to it combining Sunday's SW swell with the new S/SW groundswell incorrectly.
Still large and dangerous surf will be seen, with a drop from the 10ft range due into Tuesday, further down through the rest of the week.
The trades are due to weaken with this large swell, opening up plenty of options for a surf across the region.
Longer term, September continues to deliver with some large inconsistent long-range SW groundswell due into the end of the month, but more on this Thursday.
16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph
Comments
Ok craig thanks
You got an indo trip planned Caml?
Im unprepared to get to indo but it does look good there ! Same swell in oz for a special occasion . Didn't u know you can use different forecast sites to check somewhere else ? Ie spot xyz
Very very very very inco. Airports solid 6 foot on sets this morning, probably only 1/2 doz big sets came through from 6-9 but my gosh was in 6-8 wave sets. Heading to Bukit soon.....guessing its 10 foot there. Very West the swell today.
Goofy not sure where Camel is but I think he is somewhere pumping but not Indo.
That doesn't surprise me mick hah
8 days to go but who's counting. Haven't seen a wave for a while
Nah Craig, there are no waves left in indo after Gary caught all of them.
Got some pretty sick shots of me ripping too. Here's one of the ones that I took to show Gym Banks of me getting totally barrelled. I'm not heaps deep but I don't see the point of going much deeper cause then no one on the shore will be able to see you - and that's why we all surf right? So everyone can see us.
Gold :)
You're ripping Gazza
I know, right? Thanks Poo-man. Good vibes to you, it takes one to know one.
The best part is that the photog perfectly timed me screaming 'Gaaaaarrrrry' from inside the barrel. I do that whenever I catch a sick one.
Gary G, you're a legend. I'll be in Indo in October and hope to be able to post a pic half as good as that.
BTW that swell didn't have any west in at all. Got that wrong. At Ulus yesterday you could see the South swell sweeping wide past the break even missing Padang. Long Period then refracting into the bay. Dropping fast today but more on the horizon. Yesterday ulu's 6 foot with occasional 8-10 foot sets. No Gazzas out maybe today.
Does anyone know of how the Ments or Banyaks have been last few days ?
S/SE winds have plagued both areas for the last mth or so, which has hampered locations especially when the swells been small.
Other than a brief respite from these winds tomorrow and Friday, it (S/SE winds) looks set to continue for some time to come.
Yep, really limiting options especially when the swell is also from the south. Terrible!
Function of the El Nino Craig? Or something funny going down with the IOD?
Not totally sure, will have to look into it.
Where can you view wind data for Bali like Seabreeze?
Windfinder.
Thanks udo
Is there no end to your knowledge Udo ?
Haha.
Udo has a mind span at the end of a terabyte, maybe two maybe more , I reckon;)
Great detailed reports.
I dont know about windfinder but i havent found a website that is accurate for south winds in indo. The only way i know of is on the day with the cloud formations.
Good not great quality swell where I am. Felt like period was to long and direction to South. But still better than average.
Id love an article on why some years Sumatra gets weeks to months of southerly winds…I always just assumed it happened when the SE trade winds of east Indonesia got real strong hence the last puff of the trade winds pushed up further west into Sumatra than normal?
Pain in the arse that is for sure especially now with so many resorts and boats in the sumatran offshore Island chain, when these patterns hit especially with a lack of swell or real south swell both of which we have seen happen a lot this season the crowds are insane as every boat and resort has no choice but to find protection from the winds (that are after not offshore but cross shore).
Personally i do it cheap but i have no idea how people can justify paying $300-$500 per day to surf crowded often average waves.
ain't that the truth. Winds have been pretty good in Bali, fluctuating in morning. I have a question about a surprising phenomenon - this S wind often comes in Ulus when it is real big...locals say it pushes in with the waves but not sure the truth in this....but alot of sessions you have this lofting wind and then a big set comes in with it....anyway maybe I'm just day dreaming. But have noticed it a lot. It's rare you get the big big days without the wind.
Doing some research around this area at the moment ID, more so around the Mentawais poor run of winds this year.
And Mick, haha swell can't bring winds with it.
When it is a large swell though there is a natural breeze created over the top of the waves as they move shore-ward, this is what you see birds gliding and surfing on, real cool!
Garry G that photo is simply amazing I bet it blew Banksi mind. After reading this report I just might do one more trip in a week or so catch up with Banksi and he might be gracious enough to introduce me to the legendary Gary G.
Could the Java volcano or fires in Sumatra contribute in some way? like I guess lots of rising hot air needs to be replaced by cooler air, which is generally air from over the ocean.
BTW. Maybe its just confidence but I remember another year about ten years ago where it was just as smoky across Sumatra and there was the same run of South winds.
You are correct re hot air rising and being replaced but it's only a speck on the greater Indonesian chain and in far East Java.
Positive IOD should increase trades right?
Yes, but the IOD is only weak and not at the threshold for it to be classified positive yet.
I think this is more linked to El Nino and a stronger sub-tropical pressure ridge (high) south-west of Sumatra.
Climate analysis shows stronger than normal SE winds through this region through most of this season.
Thanks Evo, he's a lovely bloke and hopefully I've inspired him to up his game with that photo and the aura that my pecs bring to those who experience them in the flesh.
Been thinking about your modesty request and yep - whilst I'm barrelled pretty much every minute I'm surfing, not everyone can be. Think about those poor surfers in Victoria - no barrels down there lol!
So I reckon when you get one on the face it should be called a 'Facey'. Who's gonna get some sick Faceys in indo? Gettin' lots of Faceys down in Vicco Brutus/Southey? Yeeeeeew!
Gaz ,
A man in Vicco could only wish . I haven't surfed in over a month due to work commitments , so If you don't mind I've been vicariously living through your excellent exploits of late ....
You are right though , faceys down here a more about getting two turns up the face of the wave ! Lol
Had to scrap an indo sojourn , but will be desert dualing soon enough . Say hello to banksi , and ask him if he's still forgetting to do up his fcs grub screws and or doing a leash plug or some sort attachment on customs he does for himself ! ;-)
PS I wanna see Gaz go right .... Get to Nias young man
Hey Southey, sorry to hear work has been keeping you out of the water. Sometimes workin' out keeps me out of the water for a while - once you squat you just can't stop eh?!
Can confirm I'm back from Indo and got a few right hand faceys this weekend in the Southern State (I was surfing a spot I like to call - Gary's). Unfortunately the weather was a bit cloudy so I wasn't able to progress my tan in line with my tanning goals for summer and I had to top up with a can of tropical breeze Ochre to get the right colouring. Also means I couldn't get any more photos, but I'm not sure the surfing world is ready for more of my ripping yet either.
Ta ta!
South winds plagued indo in 97 june onwards just got worse & worser .those fires were burning in Sumatra & I was at g.land .water was cold & winds shit for months . Wasnt that an el nino year ?
Yep it was an el nino year, there were a few good moments that the wind died off at speedies but in 3 weeks i was at g-land not many.
It was cold and some people wore steamers, chickens turned on though on a few big days.
That was also the time that John Denver died in a plane crash, heard it on the news on the bus back to Bali.
Early oct ! I wish I could remember who you are groundsweller ! Were you in joyos camp too ?
Yep we were at Joyos too i think you might have been camp manager at the time but im not 100 %. It wasnt a failed trip just too many south winds, even seemed possibly SW wind.
Indo continues to pump ? Looking like the perfect combo for the g.land gaz you should go
You know Caml I was pitching some 'Gary Would Go' number stickers to Quik before they went under. Such a pity, the sales of those would surely have saved them.
G Land is on my pilgrimage list - up there with Arnold Schwarzenegger's child house house and Schoolies on the gold coast.
After I've been they'll have to formally change the name to 'Gary's Land' though.
So what does the current EL Nino mean for Indo next year?
I just booked my tickets for next year for May-June but can change them if need be :D
If it persists into next autumn/winter I think we could see a similar season to the one just gone. Below average activity in general.
Although the Oceania tropics and Nth Pac are solidly entrenched in the current strong El Niño especially in the SST stakes , we at Mid lats in the south and especially in regards to the Indian haven't seen as much influence . But that being said the Nth Pac atmospheric influence is nearing its end date , so I can't see this delaying and if anything I think the poorly coupled Sth Pac atmosphere will push this certain rebound into Nina earlier than expected .
Early signs of this have played out with recent rains in Nth Queensland , strong EAC flow , persisting winter ECL's etc.
it's anyone's guess is what will happen with next years IOD. The Indian Ocean has been
" the unknown " in all things climate of late , and I have a feeling we are now truly back in a pattern which is more attuned to what was around in the 50's -60's at which point the Indian is less known in climate data and for that matter surfing weather influences , for obvious reasons . Indo itself has even less data .
Interesting.
And re reaching end date, "There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016."
Think it might be hanging around a little while more, but yes then hopefully rebouding La Nina into mid-late next year.
Craig ,
I don't trust much of what the official pundits are flogging off as forecasts .
If nino 3.4 stays in positive till may June next year maybe the case , but I'm highly convinced that we'll be seeing high Oceania SST' higher than that region by atleast Feb -March . Which will be the telling factor as the differential is what re establishes the walker circulation to our shores . Much higher water vapour will be present earlier .
Now that it's reached such a high figure in Nino 3.4 and nino 1&2 has already peaked , then all that warmth is going to start coming back as a Rossby wave with interest. .
Solid reading on the Rottnest bouy (4.5m ) & the other bouys too & im sure the surfs good up north of the front . So is this still in the area of the lwt influence ? It sure did allow for some fronts to kick up some swell to the higher latitudes .
Yeah, this was created by another strong node of the LWT shown here in Guy's Monday forecast notes..
Pumping this morning.
Hows the forecast for Bali looking for the next 2 weeks? leaving in the morning yeah!!!
Here you go Cylinders.. Steady drop in swell, new large S/SW groundswell for Tuesday week
I hope you've kept in reasonable shape while not surfing much on the sunny coast, because there'll be heaps of waves to catch. :)
Thanks Craig. Sounds great I haven't got down to the gc as much as i would like to surf. I have been swimming a lot off laps in the pool. hope to bring some swell home.