The real juice is lining up from the E/NE later next week.
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No major changes to the forecast for the rest of the week, if anything an upgrade in size for the next south swell.
This change will be linked in with a low off the eastern Tasmanian coast, and gale force S/SW winds will develop through the swell window, generating a decent southerly swell for Wednesday
A slow moving low pressure system is currently off the QLD coast generating plenty of size for the subtropics. Windspeeds along the southern flank are just a notch higher than modelled on Wed so we’ll see a corresponding uptick in size across the f/cast region as swell radiates away from the source fetch.
Small swells and onshore winds into the weekend with some potential for juicier surf later next week
We are seeing the “schizoid” pattern now develop whereby a monsoonal trough is splitting off a low pressure trough along the CQ coast, supported by a high pressure belt from the Bight to the Tasman Sea, while fronts and a parent low are entering the lower Tasman. That is seeing a regime where both S swells and a developing E’ly swell event are both in play across most of the Eastern Seaboard.
We’ve got an interesting looking pattern as we transition into Summer, with both active frontal systems transiting below the continent and a precursor monsoonal trough across the top end of Australia. A front pushing into the Tasman Sea and a deeper parent low bring S swell pulses this week while a trough of low pressure is expected to hive off the precursor monsoon trough mid week and sit in the Coral Sea later this week, bringing E swell for the Eastern Seaboard- initially to the sub-tropics and then spreading down to temperate NSW over the weekend at reduced levels.
By Wed we’ll see a pattern change as a strong high pressure belt straddles Tasmania and we start to see the influence of a trough associated with the monsoon off the QLD Coast.
We’ve had the entrees for this S swell event and we’re now close to the main course with a deep low (977hPa) and gales tracking NE into the Tasman from behind Tasmania. These gales are on track to deliver the juiciest pulse of this event through tomorrow, with weak high pressure moving over NSW.
Yesterday’s W’ly change was the herald for a strong frontal progression which is currently unfolding at the gateway to the Tasman Sea. We have a front tied to a small low E of Tasmania with a much deeper parent low well to the south of Tasmania. There are multiple swell generating fetches associated with this complex low arrangement.
We’re past the peak of the current S swell event as the large low pressure system drifts towards New Zealand, weakening as it does so and a more mobile high pressure system moves north-east into the Tasman Sea, bringing N’ly winds.