This new Tasman Low looks like it’ll pack a punch, but in contrast to the standard system we see in this neck of the woods, it’s expected to be positioned quite north in latitude.
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A deepening Tasman Low is expected to meander slowly through the western Tasman Sea for the next few days, and will deliver an extended period of short range south swell to our coast. More in the Forecaster Notes.
Satellite data over the last few days has showed our fetch off New Zealand’s South Island to be quite strong. Even better, we’re looking at locally freshening NW tending W/NW winds. It’ll be well worth coordinating some water time. More in the Forecaster Notes.
We have a wide range of swells on the way, which is very exciting.
Looks like a reasonably fun weekend of waves across the coast, though it’ll be a little undersized early Saturday morning.
We have a better swell source on the way. A broad trough of low pressure between New Zealand and Fiji is expected to muscule up over the coming days, reaching maximum strength on Thursday though aimed mainly towards locations further north.
Over the last few days, the models have started to show some interest in a possible Tasman Low forming in the lee of the Thursday/Friday trough, and generating solid swells for the weekend.
Looking further to the north, and the deepening trough is expected to spawn a possible tropical cyclone by mid-week (between Vanuatu and Fiji).
A second, stronger gusty southerly change is moving up the South Coast, with Ulladulla now gusting 21kts (also picking up 22mm of rain, and counting).
The big question for Tuesday is: will there be any leftover south swell?