The model guidance is showing some interesting developments associated with the monsoon trough across the northern Coral Sea.
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The forecast models are (again) moving around a LOT for next week.
The southward-tracking tropical low will anchor a broad ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea from Friday onwards, and a long E’ly fetch will generate excellent E’ly swells that’ll persist for quite some time.
Synoptic activity is slowly easing and wave heights are abating across the coast.
We are seeing a reinforcing pulse across Southern NSW this afternoon and this should maintain elevated wave heights across the region into Thursday.
My pick of the week is Thursday and Friday as we’ll be on the backside of the swell event - when hopefully a great many paddling arms will be losing their strength and endurance.
In fact, we’re looking at around five or six individual swell sources all related to the same broader parent system. As such it’s hard to pin down the precise trends as we’ll see many overlapping swell trains throughout the course of the week.
A Tasman Low is expected to develop in the central Tasman Sea on Sunday, reaching a peak through Monday. Fortunately, compared to most systems this one looks very good for our region.
Wow, we've got another terrible week of surf ahead.
Sunday is an interesting kettle of fish.