South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 25th June)

Best Days: Tues: fun small waves at semi-exposed/outer points. Wed/Thurs/Fri: fun beachies in most areas.

Recap: Quality SE swells eased through Saturday, offering 2-3ft sets in SE Qld and 3-5ft waves south from Byron before abating a little into the afternoon. A new E’ly groundswell then arrested the easing trend in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Sunday, offering up to 3ft+ of inconsistent though clean surf ahead of a freshening S/SE breeze into the afternoon. Wave heights have eased back today but a new S’ly swell pushed across Northern NSW, slightly undersized on forecast expectations but still pushing 4-5ft at south exposed spots south of Byron, much smaller in SE Qld.

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Late lines at Snapper Rocks

This week (June 26 - 29)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave

Today’s southerly swell is now reaching a peak across Northern NSW, and the general trend will be downwards through the middle of the week.

However it’s not as simple as our current source linearly fading away to a benign ocean state. A series of fronts trailing the initial system (responsible for today's southerly swell), pushing through the lower south-eastern Tasman Sea, have generated secondary S/SE swells that’ll provide more energy (though smaller in size) through Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Having confidence in the timing and longevity is each pulse is difficult, but as a broad guide we should see 3-4ft+ surf holding at south facing beaches (south of Byron) on Tuesday and perhaps early Wednesday, easing to 2-3ft+ throughout Wednesday afternoon then down from 2-3ft to 1-2ft Thursday. Beaches with less southerly exposure will be smaller. 

SE Qld will pick up only a small fraction of this S/SE swell away from exposed northern ends (and they'll be bumpy on Tuesday), but the good news is that the trades are redeveloping to our north-east and they’ll supply some useful surf for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW beaches this week.

We’re looking at small surf Tuesday building through Wednesday, reaching a peak on Thursday with sets out of the east in the 3ft range (perhaps a little bigger on the Sunny Coast) before easing Friday onwards. Expect smaller size from this source as you head south from Ballina.

Unfortunately, the coastal trough noted in Friday’s forecast (for this coming week) has been significantly downgraded, and shunted well outside of our swell window. To compensate, the models have focused the trades a little better in our swell window, and as the E’ly swell reaches a peak mid-late week, we’ll see local winds ease right back: they’ll remain moderate to fresh SE on Tuesday, easing slightly Wednesday, with pockets of lighter SW winds early morning at a handful of locations.

It’s worth noting that there is some disagreement between the models as to how the coastal synoptics will play out over the coming days, but on the whole, we’ll see light variable winds across most coasts (except perhaps the Sunny Coast) on Wednesday, Thursday should see light variable winds in SE Qld but freshening northerlies in Northern NSW (no major problem north of Coffs though, and only from early/mid afternoon on the Mid North Coast), whilst Friday will see offshore winds in general. 

As such, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are looking fun for the beachies, with Tuesday offering small waves at semi-exposed points in Northern NSW and possibly SE Qld if there's enough juice left in the tank.

This weekend (June 30 - July 1)

The trades are expected to remain active right on the periphery of our swell window, east of New Caledonia later this week, which should keep exposed beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW flush with small peaky waves this weekend.

Otherwise, the Southern Ocean storm track will be positioned outside of our swell window for the second half of this week so in the absence of any notable synoptic development in the Tasman Sea, we may be looking at tiny swells from this source across Northern NSW.

There is a chance for a small sneaky south swell originating from my favourite unusual swell window - the waters exiting eastern Bass Strait - where a front will push through on Saturday. At the moment the fetch looks a little too westerly for my liking, but if the models tweak the alignment over the coming days, a small flush of south swell for Sunday can't be ruled out, up to 2-3ft at south facing beaches south of Byron. It’s a long shot at this stage though.

Let's take a closer look on Wednesday.

Next week (July 2 onwards)

Nothing out of the ordinary on the long term charts at this stage. There's a few of the usual frontal progressions modeled below Tasmania that'll likely provide some kind of useful south swell next week, but I'm not keen on the broadscale pattern at the moment so it's not worth locking in anything.