Tiny to flat this weekend; excellent surf potential mid-late next week
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 15th June)
Best Days: Sun: low chance for a small flukey south swell at south swell magnets south of Byron. Tues/Wed: strong S/SE tending SE swells in Northern NSW (smaller in SE Qld), good winds for the points. Thurs: strong though easing SE swells in Northern NSW (smaller in SE Qld), light winds. Fri: solid, clean E/SE groundswell with offshore winds.
Recap: Small E’ly swells on Thursday offered occasional 2ft sets across Northern NSW, with slightly smaller surf in SE Qld. We’ve seen similar conditions this morning though it’s eased this afternoon.
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This weekend (June 15 - 16)
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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave.
Tiny surf is expected for Saturday, thanks to an absence of weather systems in our swell windows over the last few days. Freshening offshore winds will brush the ocean clean.
Gale force W/NW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait on Saturday morning (in association with a vigorous frontal passage) will veer W’ly into the afternoon, and this offers a glimmer of potential for a flukey south swell south of Byron on Sunday.
By and large, most locations across the East Coast will remain flat (indeed, it’ll remain pancake-esque in SE Qld). However, a handful of reliable south swell magnets south of Byron may pick up a few stray sets as the westerly swell exiting Bass Strait spreads back to the NSW Coast.
This source region for swell becomes more reliable as the responsible fetches swings south of west. Usually, straight westerly fetches produce little rideable options, even at super south swell magnets, so it'd be easy to dismiss Sunday's potential. However, I am impressed with the duration of these gales following their directional swing to the west, and this slightly tips things in favour of a possible flush of surf across the coast.
Let me reiterate: most beaches will remain tiny to flat on Sunday. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of spots reliable swell magnets picked up occasional 2ft, maybe even 2-3ft sets throughout the day. Conditions will remain clean with offshore winds freshening across the region.
However, if you’re not of the gambling persuasion, stay clear of the surf zone (or lack thereof) this weekend.
Next week (June 17 onwards)
The broad Tasman Low responsible for the weekend’s cold outbreak will move into a favourable region for NSW swell generation later Sunday and into Monday. Southerly gales will extend parallel to the Southern NSW coast and will slowly build short range swells across Northern NSW into Monday, starting small but becoming more sizeable into the afternoon, mainly along the Mid North Coast. Winds will be very gusty from the SW tending S’ly though, so quality will be patchy at best. I'm not especially keen on Monday's surf potential at this stage.
A longer, broader and more favourably positioned S/SE fetch will develop east of Tasmania on Monday and this will be a better source of quality groundswell through Tuesday and Wednesday. However, these initial swells will be quite southerly so we’ll see much smaller size throughout SE Qld.
Model guidance is going overboard at the present time, estimating 10ft surf at south facing beaches in northern NSW for Tuesday, however this is probably due to a high windswell load contaminating the wave model (expect this to pull back over the coming days).
Nevertheless, we are looking at a strong S/SE swell through Tuesday, easing slowly through Wednesday as it swings more to the SE and reaching somewhere between 6ft and 8ft at south facing beaches south of Byron. Gusty S’ly winds will confine the best waves to protected points, where it’ll be a lot smaller (though, as the swell direction veers more SE into Wednesday, we’ll see a greater percentage of size at protected spots).
SE Qld will initially see only small surf at outer points through Tuesday - maybe some 2ft or 2-3ft sets - but into Wednesday we’ll see another foot or so more thanks to the swell direction tending SE. Exposed northern ends will be bigger but more wind affected.
Surf size and local winds are both expected to ease temporarily into Thursday ahead of a new E/SE swell, thanks to the same low setting up camp off New Zealand’s West Coast mid-week. This new swell should rebuild back up into the 4-6ft range across Northern NSW from late Thursday into Friday, with smaller 3-4ft surf across outer SE Qld points and bigger waves at exposed northern ends. Winds will be light offshore by this time so conditions look great.
Have a great weekend, see you Monday!
Comments
The small flukey south swell doesn't seem to have made much of an impression across Northern NSW this afternoon (though Newcastle has been 2ft+ all day).
However we've seen a small sneaky east swell all weekend that I didn't pick up in the notes last week - must have been generated by a distant South Pacific low early last week. It was only visible because there wasn't any other swell locally on offer, ordinarily a super inconsistent 1ft+ swell would be impossible to detect in the presence of any other energy. A couple of the outer Gold Coast points had little runners for longboarders yesterday, but the beachies I saw on the Tweed were pretty much unsurfable (image below of Caloundra this morning).
Interestingly though, I went for a cruise today and one of the regional rivermouth/breakwalls was jacking this small east swell up into shoulder/head high peaks with the assistance of the outgoing tide/stream flow - almost a standing wave (a couple of longboarders were catching unbroken waves for 50-80m). But, the beaches either side of the rivermouth were perhaps waist high.
Do more people SUP than surf these days on the sunny coast or what?
That pic looks like a living hell.
Well, it looks like the south swell arrived across the Lower Mid North Coast on Sunday. Press release from Surfing NSW overnight: "BOOMERANG BEACH, GREAT LAKES (Sunday, 17 June 2018): The final day of the HIF NSW Surfmasters Titles pres. by Moby's Beachside Retreat saw an exciting day of surfers as swell increased drastically...".
You know it's flat on the Gold Coast when a couple of fishos are trolling in a tinny inside the bank at Burleigh.
That Sth swell was around here this morning then.
About 2ft.
Boy was that wind cold!
Coldest morning on record at Cooly Airport (0.6 degrees around quarter to five). Been bloody hard typing all morning, and I'm in an airconditioned office.
Another B@E roll and another coffee should do the trick though.
You know it's cold when thermalben thinks it's cold.
How's this for a statistic: it was Twenty One degrees warmer in the ocean than on land at Cooly this morning.