Shiseido Tahiti Pro - Forecast Update
There's been no shortage of action in the week since our early forecast was published.
The trials were run in slow but thick 6-8ft waves as Matahi Drollet and Eimeo Czermak traded 10's in the flawless final.
John John's five year absence from Teahupoo hardly phased him, with his first wave back morphing into a wide, stand-up pit.
Ethan Ewing sustained a significant back injury in a wipeout, replaced by local Mihimana Braye, and after all of this, the outlook remains average.
In short, we're not expecting classic Teahupoo, however there are two swells that will provide highlights in an otherwise poor waiting period.
The first day of the waiting period is this Friday local time (Saturday Australian time), with it likely being a lay day thanks to a mix of small, infrequent S/SW groundswell to 3ft on the sets and some smaller, mid-period SE swell energy.
Saturday looks no better, but into Sunday, a funky mid-period S/SE swell is due to fill in, generated by a strong, stalling low that's developed to the south-east of French Polynesia.
The reef at Teahupoo runs effectively from south to north, with south-west swells bowling in hard and growing down the reef. Any direction change away from this more to the south sees the wave run more perfectly from deeper, while a south-southeast swell will come from even further behind. This means less slabbing sections and more almondy barrels running from deep down the reef.
With a fetch of stationary S/SE gales aimed towards Tahiti we should see some decent size building through Sunday, reaching 4-5ft through the day, easing back from the 4ft range on Monday.
Source of S/SE swell for Sunday/Monday
Conditions look great with persistent E/NE trades due through Sunday and Monday morning, shifting more E/SE-SE through Monday afternoon.
Therefore pencil in Sunday and Monday as competition days (Monday/Tuesday Australian time).
The next surfable swell will arrive from another funky, mid-latitude low that will form to the south-west of Tahiti on the weekend, strengthening while tracking east, through Teahupoo's southern swell window.
Strong to possibly gale-force S/SW winds should generate a moderate-sized, mid-period S/SW tending southerly swell for Tuesday/Wednesday. On Tuesday, the surf should build to 4-5ft or so, peaking Wednesday in the 6ft range out of the south, then easing Thursday.
Source of S'ly swell Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday
Winds look to be an issue for this secondary swell event. Tuesday - as the swell builds - looks poor thanks to a strong cross-onshore flow from the S/SE-SE, with Wednesday seeing persistent, strong SE winds.
With the southerly swell direction and south-east wind contamination, those waves breaking from deeper up the reef will be junky and crumbly.
Winds will slowly improve and swing more E/SE but remain strong even on Thursday as the southerly swell eases, while also adding local south-east windswell to the mix.
This will persist through the end of the waiting period with no further significant pulses of groundswell due.
Very strong winds forecast across French Polynesia
So, all in all the outlook is tricky and not what you'd normally expect for Teahupoo, but there'll be small windows of quality surf, mostly during the first S/SE swell.
Comments
woof...
but also how sick is that jjf tube oml
So in a perfect world whats the ideal waiting period for the big WSL events - 3 weeks , 1 month .... ?
How long do you need at these premier locations to guarantee good waves ? , as it seems 10 or 11 days just aint cutting it
I think 14 days is enough. But the key is to have events at ultra consistent waves in prime season. The best waves we’ve seen on tour this year have been J bay and Margs, for this exact reason. They got skunked at G land last year because they went in May, not July or August.
Sometimes you do just get plain skunked however, see the Pipeline comp at the start of this year. That might have more to do with the karmic balance of the wozzle haha
June through september is notorious for Mara’amu SSE winds in tahiti which ruins most break and can blow for whole week, they used to run the comp in May for years… i reckon better winds then
How so?
The early forecast still stands.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2023/08/03/shiseido-tahi...
6 august 1.42pm I wrote - "Long range forecasts are waffle. Anything over 8 days is speculation. 7 days, we're starting to have an ok read. 4 days, things REALLY tighten up. Below is a map for 10th August. That looks like a decent sse swell, aimed straight at tahiti."
7 august 2.33pm I wrote - "But looking at the Big low, I'd say a 6foot, perhaps 7+ on the sets out of the sse, 14 seconds, around the 14thish.
Not heart in mouth west bowl stuff. Perhaps PEELING A BIT FURTHER UP THE REEF. The kinda stuff that if it was peeling off at your local, you'd call it fuckn unreal. But being chopes, people will whine"
So you call it 5 fott, I call it 6.... I call it on the 6th.
It's ok. You're welcome to use my lines Craig. ;p
" south-southeast swell will come from even further behind. This means less slabbing sections and more almondy barrels RUNNING FROM DEEP DOWN THE REEF"
"fuckn unreal (for yr local break) 6-8ft S/SE on the 14th".
Lock it in for a second time, Eddie.
Hahaha !
"Sheepy you want to phone a friend .... Yes Eddie
Ben ... Call Ben at swellnet please! "
Re: Craig "using your lines", actually he's using his own lines.
From last year's forecast notes:
"if the Southern Ocean storms form any further east then the swell arrives with a more southerly direction, providing less of those west sets with waves peeling from deeper on the reef"
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2022/08/03/tahiti-pro-ea...
From 2017:
"More than likely, we’ll see raw, bumpy pointbreak-like surf running from deep down the reef, not the classic Teahupoo conditions we're used to."
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2017/08/08/billabong-pro...
etc.
Woof woof has been on the lines
I like the fact you put it out there and have a crack sheepy. Good on ya.
Whatever makes you feel better SD.
Early forecasts are there to nail down the general vibe of the event, are they going to score or what's going against it.
Then the updated goes into the particulars of what's expected swell and timing size.
LMAO no you didnt
Bell end.
Calm down troll, You're hysterical
thx for the update craig - as always fingers are crossed that huey works some magic
bummer about ee, hope it’s not too serious
Just watched a thing WSL released on youtube and it’s just basically that pumping day from last years comp. I guess they wanna pump it up but they know it’s not gonna be that flash so setting it up for a bigger fail?
Regardless. On Pat leave so I’ll be tuning for sure! :)
Sounds really shit. Like total fizzer shit.
Oh boy, I can't wait till this season is over and done with.
Pray and tell that 'all' rounds of next season pumps.
When do the WSL typically release the schedule. Is there any noise around what's in and what's not ?
Next year's schedule? Lately it's been around the Finals Day time.
From memory, in 2021 it was before it, but last year they released it after the Finals Day had been completed - perhaps so the anger about including Surf Ranch didn't take the gloss off the Finals day.
Gonna be interesting to see next year's schedule as Elo made noises about changes to the mid-year cut but then he was silently disappeared.
The EOY Trestles shitshow will never mean a truly legit world champ is crowned in waves of consequence.
How the final 5 is not at Pipe is hard to fathom. 1 day only. Surely thats possible to wrangle.
How would one be able to 'guarantee' a Brazilian prince if they have to charge deep toobs....?
There’s plenty of Brazilian chargers, just not the current world champ
Didn't take long for a xeno to come here and attack brazilians, did it? These comment sections on swellnet is full of haters like yourself and the "moderators" do shit about it!!! For your entertainment I'm putting a link for you to watch and learn what a real charger is, not a flop who ends up in hospital after failing to even make the 1st section of a very mediocre wave for chopes standards!!! A wave that real chargers wouldn't even look at!!! Now check the last wave in the video and next time you wanna talk shit about brazos, show what yours guys have won in the last 10 years!!! https://www.facebook.com/100057865561214/posts/pfbid0xSnNUvek3GZosYvvVob...
Did I reference Brazilians. No. Pathetic. Here's a tissue or two to wipe away some of your deep seeded insecurities. Any champ, from whatever country, crowned at a break like Trestles in a surf off is hardly validated in my view. Have a panadol and a lay down, champ.
hahahaha. This is exactly the reason Brazilians have a bad rep. The current Brazilian world champ can not ride a tube. It's a known fact. Remember Toled00? A world champ that's too scared to get proper tubed should have an * next to his world champ credentials.
c'mon Burls, that myth has been busted
When?
You’re joking right. Look at the waves a guy that’s been retired for 10 years was taking off on. Toledo was holding on for his life.
And Toledo lost.
I'm disputing the claim "The current Brazilian world champ can not ride a tube. It's a known fact. Remember Toled00? A world champ that's too scared to get proper tubed".
Bloke does alright in that heat.
Yeah, he got done by Hedgey (who was on fire!). But, he pulled into a couple of big kegs.
Now put up EVERY other heat he’s had at the chopes and pipe. It’s the right thing to do if you’re trying to prove me wrong.
I stand by what I said. The guy can not ride the tube in waves of consequence. His performances and results clearly show this.
Eh? He’s certainly not the best surfer in heavy slabs, but he can pull in at sizeable Chopes.
Gotta side with Ben and the actual evidence here the bloke can ride a tube - he’s pulled into some sick ones in that clip and at backdoor pipe.
Shit, just deleted a double post of mine and looks like I got the wrong one (which knocked out the following replies), sorry Burleigh.
Anyway, let’s just agree to disagree, hey?
haha. Yep. Surely we've got something better to do.
Im currently watching Toledo's first round heat in 2015.
It's pretty boring, Toledo doesnt catch a wave. haha
Forgot about that heat, he actually got some smokers and rode them pretty perfectly to be fair.
No doubt he has the talent to do it, just not the mongrel required to do it consistently.
Hey Big D....can you also share some links of you surfing Chopes. I'm a bit bored @ work on a friday arvo and need some stimulation.
I hope you’re not bad mouthing Ethan Ewing with the remark about a flop ending up in hospital after not making the first section in mediocre Chopes ???
I really hope I’m wrong with the way I interpreted your comment ?!!!!
Big Dan is MIA. His misplaced victim rant has no recourse.
I'm confused , when was the last year the tour had this many bad waves in one season ?
Gotta be worst year of all time ?
Name a shitter year ?
Can count the number of good days they've had on one hand. And none of those occurred on finals day. Pretty much every comp has been finished in slop.
Not sure about season but in terms of finale was it Julian winning at pipe ?
2020 excluded.
How amazing is JJF's body language in that pit!?!?!?
What's that little chandelier that runs down the face after he stands up?
Latest WSL presser:
"We are off for today and tomorrow here at the SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro," said Renato Hickel, WSL Director of Tours and Competition. "Today the waves are two-to-three feet, which is smaller than anticipated and very inconsistent. This is also a dying swell, which is why we are calling the event off tomorrow as well. We'll continue to review the forecasts, but we're currently targeting Tuesday, August 15th, with a new medium-size swell arriving in Tahiti."
What? They're not looking at the S/SE swell for tomorrow?
They do have rocks in their heads. Baffling.
Pretty bizarre to not simply take it day by a day.
What could be a reason to deny themselves a opportunity when picking are slim already?
Despite the new swell, surfline foecasting surf conditions to be poor tomorrow.
WSL clearly don't read your notes (or subscribe to sheepies insta page) ;-)
Ol sheepy's predictions are way off I guess.
Very interesting....
Weird one. Both Sheepy and I have flagged this swell. Surprised they didn't at least have a look at what today could bring. To go off a day before isn't best practice. Especially with a new swell due. They only usually do that if it's a total write-off.
One must not question the wos, it's funny how super rich people become delusional and start to bend reality.
A case of the ziffs
Any intel on the surf today?
On other matters:
Next year's Paris Olympics have an eight day waiting period at Chopes. Needs three of those days to run.
The current outlook is a reminder that great waves aren't a given.
And FWIW, surfing at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics are pencilled in for Santa Monica Beach were great waves are never given.
Malibu.
What month is the Olympics?
Late July / early August.
Trials swell time.
awesome i hope its shit cause theres already way to many dick heads taking up surfing
The surfing you and I know doesn't exist anymore. I had this conversation in the line up today. 25 people surfing 3 or 4 watch the contests. A Buddy commented , its too mainstream.
My argument, its been mainstream forever.
Got reports from the point, it's still tiny so the S/SE swell did a no show. Surprised there wasn't something to surf.
Off for tomorrow as well.
no word from Sheepy either......
He'll be back.
(and very welcome- Hi Sheepy!)
"We are off again today at the SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro," said Renato Hickel, WSL Director of Tours and Competition. "Today is one of the smallest days in the window, so we'll be off as we await improved conditions tomorrow and in the coming days. We're looking to run a full day of competition tomorrow, as a medium-size swell is forecast to arrive. "
Fillipe is a legit World champ! Just watched clip with Hedgey @ Chopes unbelievable surfing in waves of consequence by both surfers! I also recall Fillepes magnificent airs @ 6ft Jbay (2017???) which just blew me away! love to see waves like this for this event but sadly it's not looking the goods!