Shiseido Tahiti Pro - Early Forecast
Following a generally dire year, J-Bay whetted our appetite for good waves, and thus hopes are high as the tour swings into French Polynesia.
Not only is Teahupoo one of the best waves in the world to watch, the event sits in an ideal viewing time for early-rising Australians, being four hours ahead but a day behind us - i.e 8am Tahiti is 4am in Oz.
Unfortunately, like most events this year, there'll be swell during the lead up to the waiting period - which is the 11th of August - but slim pickings once it begins.
The pre-event swells wont be properly pumping - the winds won't be perfect - while the event proper looks to offer clean conditions but a lack of any significant groundswell.
Having solid swell before the event will make for an interesting scenario as it means the Trials will likely be held in heavy Teahupoo. Therefore, the odds on favourites will be Matahi Drollet, Kauli Vaast, or maybe Eimeo Czermak, all heavy water experts, and the kind of wildcard no-one wants to draw. Least of all Felipe Toledo, yet as he's rated #1 that's exactly what will happen.
The reason for the lack of groundswell during the event will be a large, blocking high moving across and setting up camp to the south-east of New Zealand during the start of the waiting period, effectively shutting down Teahupoo's prime swell window. With the central pressure reaching as high as 1038hPa, it's significant and will be hard to budge, with a low pressure system also expected to form on the north-western flank of the high, though aimed the wrong way (towards Australia).
With the high sitting to the south-east of New Zealand, Southern Ocean storms will be blocked from pushing up into the South Pacific Ocean, the main source of quality groundswell for the region.
Mean Sean Level Pressure anomaly (difference from normal) forecast for the week Mon 14th - Mon 21 August (ECMWF)
So what do we have?
Besides small pulses of background SW swell energy in the 2-3ft range, there's the chance of a couple of lows sliding east-southeast, under the high during the opening days of the waiting period, producing some slightly stronger but inconsistent groundswell. At this stage it looks to max out at 4-5ft.
Could Toledo hold his own against a Teahupoo wildcard in waves that size?
We're still a couple of weeks out from the end of the waiting period, so there's potential for an improvement in the forecast. We'll continue to monitor any major changes and document them in the comments below.
Comments
Damn. Hope it improves as we get closer.
A blocking high SE of NZ is the worst case scenario for Chopes.
Would've been a lot to ask to have more than one pumping day of competition for 2023
Ideal viewing time...not if you're out West Craig
Ha, no, not ideal there.
Goddamit.
The curse continues even after the dreaded Elo sacrifice
Clearly it wasn't enough.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moloch
You have to sacrifice something you love, or else it is no great sacrifice
Faaark!
Crazy idea, but bring it forward....logistics yeah, but surely do able with some pre planning to allow that sort of flexibility. I'm imagining the internal workings of the WSL resembling something similar to an episode of Dystopia.
That forecast will suit Toledo to a tee.
As mentioned on here previously, you're better off watching the usual suspects on youtube surfing the best swells around the globe than crossing your fingers and hoping that it will happen to pump for the random days that the wsl circus shows up. Personally I hope the epic swell comes for the Olympics - I'm sure Somalia will have some suitable athletes ready to go. (what's the surfing equivalent of a 21 second 100m run?)
Steph Gilmore surfing Chopes...........sorry steph
hahahaha savage!
you just have to laugh at this point.
Fil's puckering date hole relaxes
haha.
Although I'm sure his 'Pucker Factor' is still higher than the median.
I was backing Filipe having an injury and not turning up but I’ll have to change my bets now ?? Damn !!
Flippy breathing again
The WSL have been royally skunked this year.
Whats the bet Trestles pumps and they royally pump it up.
pre event swells are great, you get the juice without having to sit through the annoying broadcast and whacky judging
There could be a special reward next week for the pros & WSL staff that planned to fly in early, to help clean up after the flood.
https://www.windy.com/?2023080621,-24.587,-158.862,5,m:dbpa0n
Hope the Florence bros & Kelly put on a show with the locals
Yep you can hear flips sphincter muscles relaxing from 3000 miles away! As previously said, a floating waiting period to catch optimal swells would be great. They have been royally dealt a tough year the old wozzle. Oh well maybe next year? Or was it just bad timing due to La Niña/nino change over period.
Karma Bus WSL!
Italo Ferreira has pulled out cos of his knee - no surprise as he had no chance of making the Top 5 - and has been replaced by Kauli Vaast, the highest-ranked Tahitian surfer on the men's Challenger Series.
Vaast will take on Ewing and Jordy Smith in Rd 1.
Actually a pretty mellow season for Teahupoo this year.
Kinda an ebb year for south swells for central and north America.
Finding that blocking highs don't do much other than bring nice / warm weather.
Funky year for the wos, swell wise.
Given your readers audience Craig I would say that low is going in the right direction.
It is if NZ wasn't there ;)
Looks to slip behind it unfortunately.
We'll see, the models are still struggling to resolve things.
Good news
The Australian plate is moving NNE at 7cm per year, this helping to build mountains in New Guinea
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Plate#/media/File:Global_plate_...
However,
At this rate we'll be nearing the equator in about 45M years & ....were taking parts of NZ with us.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Plate#/media/File:AustralianPla...
Mate, forecasts aren't accurate 45 million years out
Hahaha
And why the fuck not!?
LOL
check the fossil forecast
Last event of the year over three foot
so - please check this as its the first time I've tried
If Caity gets second - she cant be pipped for 5th even if lakey or steph wins
If lakey gets second, 3rd or 5th Caity needs 5th or higher, anything lower than 5th for caity she is out
Steph - needs at least 2nd to better Caitys worst possible result but will also need Lakey to be no higher than 5th. If steph wins, doesnt matter where lakey finishes but caity cant be higher than 5th
Hard to see Steph doing the late run two years in a row. I putting money in Caity staying in 5th and making the finals. A cracking effort for a rookie.
"Not only is Teahupoo one of the best waves in the world to watch, the event sits in an ideal viewing time for early-rising Australians, being four hours ahead but a day behind us - i.e 8am Tahiti is 4am in Oz."
Not to mention people coming home from nightclubs; and the poor bastards waiting in line at Perth Airport for a pre-dawn flight up to the mines will be able to watch some of the morning's heats too.
An early riser in Irkustsk could be similarly overwhelmed with the convenient timing.
Long range forecasts are waffle. Anything over 8 days is speculation. 7 days, we're starting to have an ok read. 4 days, things REALLY tighten up. Below is a map for 10th August. That looke like a decent sse swell, aimed straight at tahiti.
Great swell for Chile/ peru
These outlooks aren't done lightly.
I put a bit more energy into them to simply write them off as waffle.
For me, the S/SE swell looks to offer 4-5ft sets Sunday, then easing Monday. Running longer and from deeper down the reef.
Other than that the small low looks to produce a new pulse of mid-period swell later Monday/Tuesday but it looks dicey still, maybe 3-5ft. EC has it weaker and smaller.
So all in the outlook remains average.
Looks enticing, but the problem is that that system is moving SE.
And.. SSE swells are not a great direction for Teahupoo.
Wrong. For 4 days, it hardly moves. And if big enough, SSE is fine. There's also another low east of NZ swirling up
Give us your forecast then sheepy, is there going to be waves or not?
There will always be waves, Goof...... Even a 1 foot chop is a wave.
But looking at the Big low, I'd say a 6foot, perhaps 7+ on the sets out of the sse, 14 seconds, around the 14thish.
Not heart in mouth west bowl stuff. Perhaps peeling from a bit further up the reef. The kinda stuff that if it was peeling off at your local, you'd call it fuckn unreal. But being chopes, people will whine
So, confirming 6-8ft for Monday 14th. Lock it in Eddie.
I presume we're using the 6ft = double overhead scale?
hahaha taking reciepts mate
I've set my alarm already.
Can't wait for this to play out.
Sheepy look at Ben's smile, he's been forecasting waves for over 20 years.
Built it up to be the most trusted forecast site.
Your going to be shocked come the 14th.
As long as u use the same scale for measuring your penis? Call your 6 incher 3 inches. Go for it.
At least i'm having a go mate. You're the pro and have said a thing 4 days out.
As far as 6 foot being double overhead (12 foot faces), this is exactly why the non surfing community think the surfing community is full of toxic male wankness. It's a relic of a bygone era that is pure cringe.
Back to the waves. Put that low off Tasmania with the same angle to Wreck bay.
There is also another low as I said. East of NZ. Possible 40 knots plus. A weak high NNE of NZ creating a small targeted fetch straight at Tahiti.
So its not all doom and gloom. But i guess people want tow ins
4 to 5 feet of sw swell.
Wot?
Agro sheeprage....
dirk diggler here flexing his 6 incher, cmon mate some of us are hung like a mosquito it's not fair
Haha
Which side are you measuring mate?
The exaggerated one always reads well but disappoints when you flop it out.
The locals are restless, this WSL clusterfuck has got us behaving like seagulls fighting over the last shreds of batter in the discarded family pack.
Will Teahupoo be 3-5 or 4-6 !!?
10 Day waiting periods - Massive Fail
Rcal could go surgical and fix everything
“ There will always be waves, Goof...... Even a 1 foot chop is a wave.”
Geez thanks for that, that’s exactly what I meant..
So we’re left with same dire forecast?
Is it pumping there as we speak. SN models look pretty good right now. Light North and 6ft+ of SW swell 14 secs?
Have the trials begun ?
Apparently being run now (Sunday the 6th). Should be decent surf for it as Nick pointed out above.
Cheers Craig, watching it now
Glass. Thanks Sprout.
Some thick ones!
Yeah slow but the good ones are sick.
Camera work is terrible!
Old mate in white's doing a great impersonation of a priority buoy.
Haha, he didn't go on 2 screamers!
Stage fright?
Toledo training regimen.
0!
Clearly needs a surf coach to remind him how to win heats.
"You've gotta catch waves, mate."
Pumping for Finals now.
Two good openers.
Matahi just got a 10.
how was the soul arch barrel entry.
Just watched it.
That was insane!!
Like a warrior with a sword, dancing with a lion.
Straight into Teahupoo folklore.
Sick wave.
Too comfortable, so good.
That last one was sick too!
that has to be a 10 too
So deep!
This is insane.
Yep, another 10.
this is mental.
Geez Red matey not shy.
pulling in no hands on those west ones takes some stones.
Pray for Felipe.
So Filipe / Caio / Matahi R1?
Crazy to think both of these guys will be sitting in the channel watching the Olympics here next year when they are better than 99.99% of the planet out there.
No great surprise on those two finalists.
Freaks
Can we expect anything like those waves we just watched in the main event ?
Im no expert but don’t look flash.
Geez, that was pumping. Now to watch Toledo do three turns and an air when it's 3 foot. zzzzzzzzzzz
Short answer- no.
Not unless something drastic changes.
Don't take this the wrong way @freeride76. I just think you would make a good used car salesman.
Wow, how were those waves in the final, mental!
For those that like overhead barrels and/or the french language....without adverts
Matahi Drollet is something else.
Jeez, the window (kicking off on the 11th) still remains very uninspiring. No major swell events at all.
Onshore all period as well? Do they get morning offshores due to those mountains?
E/SE is a good wind for Teahupoo.
Pity about the swell, but at least we can watch the Trials on repeat.
Hmm, one model run update and there's now a temporary glimmer of hope.
The models had a small/mod mid-range (13 second) S/SW swell due Tues 15th, but it's been upgraded in the latest run and extended out into Wed 16th. Compare model runs side by side below.
It is however originating from a cut-off low, which are not preferred swell sources for Teahupoo - and even if we see a solid swell, it'll be a brief event (the broadscale/upper level synoptic pattern remains poorly aligned for Tahiti for the entire period).
Here's the associated synoptic/10m wind chart of the responsible low. Not very interesting IMO.
As there a day behind, do the models tell provide the above in our time i.e that swell is on Wednesday as stated or is it their Wed?
Dumb question?
The 16-day graphs are in local time, so Tahiti time.
Latest update has pulled that Tues/Wed swell back, both in size, timing and duration. T'was never a confident swell source to begin with anyway, so there's no surprises that yesty's brief window of optimism is now fading.
Only good news is that the opening day (11th) has been nudged up a little. Still nothing amazing but enough to get going.
EC has a glimmer of hope at the back end of the waiting period....but this is a long way out
Ben dusts off the key board to remind the rest of you who the real Yoda of forecasting is,
I can't wait for the 14th!
LOL.
I like that sheepy puts his two cents in and gives his forecast.
I couldn’t read a weather map for an unfamiliar area to save me life.
He just needs to drop the “You’re wrong, I’m right, you can all get fucked” way of delivering it!
Comes across a bit “holier than thou”
I agree --- the 14th....which will be the 15th our time....then let's reflect/
13th their time, 14th our time.
Ie Monday our time, Sunday their time.
Oh yeah!
How the Friar Tuck has the best surfer in the world not surfed a wave at Teahupoo in 5 years!!??
That's unbelievable.
You have heard of this thing called Covid yeah?
No shit shirlock....but seriously...how?
Seen enough Toledo spins in 2 foot beachies over the last 5 years but JJF hasn't once entered the lineup at Chopes.
What a joke of a tour.
He was injured for a couple of years too right?
Yes mate, that's true for sure.
Talking bigger picture....overall.. a tour that doesn't showcase the best in the best waves.
Ewing and Bettylou have pulled out due to injury
Mihimana is no slouch there, but Eimeo should have gotten the spot.
Anyone know why 3rd place got a shot in main event and not 2nd ?
Goes off the CS/QS ratings I think.
Ok thanks Craig , geez he’s way down the rankings list , 69 th ?
Reports that Ewing broke his back
Shit! Let's hope nothing too serious (as non-serious as a broken back can be), or life-long lasting.
Reliable source of information?
Fuck I hope not.
Beachgrit.
Nothing official though.
Yeah probably the least reliable source! Hopefully it's not that
Looks like BG was right:
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/ewing-suffers-broken-back-in-teahupo-o-wipe...
https://beachgrit.com/2023/08/world-2-surfer-ethan-ewing-reportedly-brea...
No doubt, buried in the fine print of the WSL rule book somewhere near the bottom of page 83 just under clause 8.d.ii part v section 6 there is a clause “ should a surfer suffer an injury and is not able to compete in the final 5 the surfers position will be granted to the surfer who holds the most world titles “
Haha.
Turns out you’re not that far wrong. This is what the WSL rulebook says, via stab.
‘If a Surfer who has qualified for the CT decides to relinquish their seeded position in a CT Event as a result of retirement or injury, the Office of Tours and Competition will select a replacement (“Replacement”) and the Replacement can be used to fill a maximum of one (1) seed spot (“WSL Replacement”).
They Cant Script this shit....o wait...yes they can....and will
Haha, yes.
To hell with them.
and just under that
" the substitute surfers points for the final 5 will count towards Olympic qualification and for this event will attract a multiplier of 3 "
The forecast has just swung from uninspiring to craptacular.
The little glimmer of hope for Tues/Wed that popped up a few days is goneski, and the end of the waiting period is now showing a building SE windswell (to 10ft!) with strong to gale force E/SE tending SE winds.
(source is a deepening trough well east of Tahiti and a large, stubborn high to the south)
Of course, rapid synoptic changes within short time frames (overnight) means the outlook will swing around a little more over the coming days, but the main point is... we're now at the point preceding the competition where major swell trends are evident... and the evidence shows that there are no significant surf days ( i.e. strong SW groundswells with favourable winds) on the way.
Booo.
(best day of the period seems to be Day 1, where we'll have a mix of easing energy from the weekend's large event and some new long period swell, maybe 4-6ft).
How refreshing would it be if they just owned it went in saying we unfortunately have a craptacular forecast for one for the worlds best waves, these things happen, but let’s see the what the worlds best can do.
Though the silver lining for a shit forecast for me is the verbal polishing of the turd. Very creative at times.
Kelly on the way from Namibia to Tahiti..
https://www.instagram.com/stories/kellyslater/3165798225052083247/
Maybe they will have to extend the waiting period. Long range GFS showing some action way down off the ice shelf. EC showing something similar, albeit a little east of the prime tahiti swell window and a little earlier in the forecast than the GFS low.
There's some contestable surf coming (though with poor winds into the middle-end of next wee), update on the site this morning.
Are they starting it today?
Second and third para's VJ ;p
Any possible start would be early tomorrow Australian time.
OK thx Craig
If I were CEO I'd move every contest 2 weeks earlier next year.