Reasons to be Cheerful

Stu Nettle picture
Stu Nettle (stunet)
Swellnet Analysis

The competitions might be finished and all the pros gone home but the fun don't done in Hawai'i. Season 09/10 is shaping up to be a benchmark year with many big swells hitting the islands, and even more big swells forecast to arrive.

A series of large W/NW groundswells are expected to impact the Hawaiian island chain over the coming week. Due to the westerly direction of the storms, west side breaks such as Makaha should see almost as much size as their north shore counterparts. The predicted run of swell will be the biggest since Waimea Bay broke and the Eddie Invitational was held on December 7th and 8th last year.

Over the next couple of days, two large W/NW groundswells should have the tow teams tuning up their tugs. The first is expected to arrive Tuesday afternoon Hawai'i time (Wednesday morning our time) ahead of a secondary, and slightly larger, pulse for Thursday morning Hawai'i time (Thursday night our time). Both swells will be generated closer to the island chain than usual due to a shift in the North Pacific jet stream to the south. This is effectively steering developing storms to the east of Japan, down towards Hawai'i, resulting in a captured fetch scenario and an overall amplification of open ocean wave heights.

Unfortunately due to the jet-stream pushing down closer towards Hawai'i, winds will become a problem on both Tuesday and Thursday with a westerly onshore air-flow. Initial estimates have wave heights reaching 20-30ft across north facing shores on Tuesday afternoon, with smaller 15-20ft waves across west facing shores, with slightly larger waves for Thursday. The two swells are then expected to move onto Northern California on Thursday afternoon and Saturday respectively, hopefully awakening Mavericks.

Another large W/NW groundswell is on the cards for early next week, but the storm doesn't look as if it will be as broad or as powerful as the ones before it. In any case it looks like it's another reason to be cheerful, especially for those lucky enough to be in Hawaii.//CRAIG BROKENSHA with STU NETTLE

Comments

timberskills's picture
timberskills's picture
timberskills Sunday, 7 Feb 2010 at 1:09pm

Lucky to be in hawaii?!?!???