Billabong Pro Tahiti - Forecast Update
We're only a couple of days away from the start of the waiting period for the Billabong Pro Tahiti and as touched on in the early forecast last week, the outlook is poor.
The Southern Ocean storm track isn't expected to line up favourably for Tahiti with a blocking high pressure system shutting down Teahupoo's prime swell window.
Fortunately for the organisers, a couple of strong but unfavourably aligned fronts will generate small inconsistent groundswells for the start of the waiting period.
The first south-west swell was generated under Tassie, in Teahupoo's far swell window, at the start of this week. It will be very inconsistent owing to the vast distance it's travelled. This swell should build through Friday (day one), reaching a very infrequent 3ft late in the day, holding a similar size through Saturday. A couple of weaker but closer polar fronts passing under New Zealand today and tomorrow should produce a touch more size and consistency for later Sunday (more so Monday), the largest for Tuesday.
Monday's increase should come in at an infrequent 3-4ft, with Tuesday being a little more south but larger to 4-5ft during the morning. From here it's down, down, down with the aforementioned blocking pattern kicking into full effect.
It should also be noted that during the first few days of the waiting period, there'll be south-east swell contaminating the line-up, generated by a low that's currently south-east of Tahiti. This will likely add 3ft of SE swell to the mix Friday and Saturday.
Though swell size will be small, the surface conditions are looking good for the first half of the waiting period with moderate to fresh easterly trades, keeping Teahupoo clean.
Longer term, there are no significant swells due until maybe the last day or two of the waiting period, but we'll continue to keep a close eye on this.
With small inconsistent waves Saturday and Sunday some competition may be seen, but it's not probably until Monday and Tuesday (Tahiti time) that a full day of surfing may be seen.
Comments
Bummer. 6' + Teahupo is probably the most dramatic and interesting surf contest there is.
That and the Cape Fear comp!
(and lets not forget the Brazil stop of the tour...)
Gawd, I hope it doesn't come down to turns and airs.
Early prediction- Medina for the win based on mining a tiny coverup with an end section hail-mary that he sticks.
Yep, Zen, worst case scenario coming up. Don't like Wilko's chances in 3' Teahupo. Setting up for a Brazilian air game on the heaviest wave in the world.
Something a little more promising showing around the 29th/30th Tahiti time.
I reckon they'll run Rd's 1 and 2 Tues/Wed Tahiti time and by that stage hopefully have some confidence on the 29th/30th swell.
Fuck, surely the WSL has to consider extending the comp window by a few days looking at the latest GFS forecast?
Word is they're trying to wrap up by Tuesday evening.
Go Ottz! He needs this one.
"We're only a couple of days away from the start of the waiting period for the Billabong Pro Tahiti and as touched on in the early forecast last week, the outlook is poor."
It was poor hey. Hope next year they get some good waves at that event and maybe we'll see decent event
Pretty happy with the forecast Bob.
Besides yesterday and today when the better on forecast swell came in with great conditions it was average.
This 'poor' is relative to the whole waiting period as well. Very small swells with average winds..
Hardly epic Teahupoo.
PS To call nearly a whole two weeks of average surf 1.5 weeks out is as big a call as calling a large pumping swell IMO.
Gary kindly recommends you to take a leaf out of his book, Bob.
More Clean and Jerk, less Jerk.