Rip Curl Pro 2016 - Updated Forecast
Now that we're into day one of the Rip Curl Pro waiting period, we've got a much clearer idea on the outlook for the Easter Long Weekend, with a significant upgrade on the size due through Sunday.
Today started small and onshore as expected, but the first pulse of strong SW groundswell is on the way, with the Cape Sorell buoy off Tasmania climbing nicely (right).
We should see this swell reach 3-4ft+ across Bells during this afternoon, peaking overnight and then easing back from a good clean 3ft to occasionally 4ft tomorrow morning. Early W/NW winds should create clean conditions before shifting SW through the day.
Through Saturday two separate SW groundswells will fill in, the first for the morning and second for the afternoon. These swells are being generated by a strong and broad frontal system currently to our south-west, with good clean 3-4ft surf due through the morning, with better 5ft sets into the afternoon. Conditions should be clean through until early afternoon ahead of a W/SW change.
Of much greater significance is an upgrade of Sunday's already strong long-period SW groundswell.
The mid-latitude low that's forecast to move in under the country and generate this swell is now forecast to generate a fetch of storm-force SW winds ideally through Victoria's south-western swell window from early tomorrow morning through Saturday morning.
The low will move over an already active sea state as well as track with the swell its creating resulting in a captured fetch scenario and large long-period groundswell event for Sunday.
Bells now looks to see large 6-8ft surf Sunday morning if those 50-55kt+ wind forecasts come to fruition. Conditions will be workable but not the best with an early W'ly breeze, giving into SW winds mid-morning.
The swell is expected to drop back a touch through Sunday afternoon, back further through Monday from 4-5ft+ as weaker trailing frontal activity softens the easing trend. We may see a morning W/NW'ly, before swinging onshore through the day.
Tuesday should see the swell ease from 3-4ft, with more variable breezes through the morning, while longer term there's plenty of activity on the cards for late week, but we'll continue to monitor this in the comments.
Comments
Well there's certainly some significant discrepancy between the above and this forecast. Be very interesting to see who's on the money.
http://www.surfline.com/surf-science/rip-curl-pro-bells-beach----surflin...
Swell is definitely peaking through the morning, crazy they have the PM.
Maybe their timezone and downunder is confusing them!!! ;)
Just had a closer read, wow besides the sizes being under, they have easing Saturday late, when there's a stronger increase due into the afternoon. We'll see how it pans out.
Swell on forecast this afternoon and looks good 3-4ft+, over Surfline's call.
"Biggest late - surf builds from mainly knee-waist high early (1-3' face) to waist-head high before dark (3-5' face)."
Don't you guys reference the same base data?
Basic global wind forecast data from GFS and other models, yes, but then it's up to the forecasters interpretation of each storm, with some help from the wave model forecasts. That's where nearly a decade of knowledge forecasting the Southern Ocean comes in handy.
Local knowledge wins.
I'm pretty sure Commissioner Perrow sneaks a look at Craig's forecast.
Commissioner, genius title. One of the better decisions of the WSL.
First satellite observations are in and it's looking good.
Black Duck. Craig don't live on the Surf Coast so there's no real local knowledge there. 6-8ft on Sunday. Yeah right, forgive me for not waxing up my 6'10" in anticipation.
Craigs knowledge is valuable even if he doesn't live there
We'll see ay
Wind is picking up from the south and blowing pretty hard at the moment. No sign of a clean morning on Sunday. All the talk about the surf being good for the comp, is just hot air. Here's my forecast: Mens round two will get run tomorrow to keep the punters entertained. Women will get Easter monday in dropping onshore waves, golf, golf, golf, a bit more golf, maybe some tennis and then the rest of the comp being run deep in the waiting period.
Put a size on it V.L for tomorrow
Most of the day will be in the 4-5ft range but I'm sure there will be the odd bigger set during the morning low tide that gets photographed by hundreds of snappers at the Pro. All the frothers will grab hold of these images to claim Bells was huge while ignoring the hours of smaller conditions on the high tide. Quality wise it will be average at best. You'll see some big manoeuvres on solid waves but the reality for the day ( pros pumping their way through fat sections and doing endless cutbacks on fat featureless mush) won't be seen by the masses. At least it should be reasonably consistent mush and the pros make that look pretty good (even when it's poop).
bells is one of the best spots to surf on the surf coast when its light to moderate onshore…
4-5ft, pfft dreaming! Way bigger.
On track .
" http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT65014.shtml "
Very nice!
6 metres @17 sec point blank range . Cant wait to see this swell smash the surf coast & see if the forecasters were right or wrong haha
Pitty about the wind but there is some solid waves out there with plenty of push, that set that caught them inside was quite solid.
It's probably about time you guys now bow down and admit that I am your surf forecasting overlord for this part of the world.
Wind forecast? Correct. Size? correct. Quality? Correct. Just watch the swell get swallowed up by the high tide later in the day.
Reckon you're about 85% right Vic Local. Set waves definitely pushing above your size estimate though.
The tide flow has less impact on a S-SSW swell . So some effect on incoming tide , but I would say more deteriation in swell .
BUT , although Brute was correct about this combo and wave travel past KI , with larger swell periods not as much swell gets through untouched as it does with smaller wave periods . Remember that 18+ sec's onshore wind ( would be even higher with an offshore ) is right up there . So although the most experienced of locals know all these quirks , S-SSW swells are better when the system is flogging Tassie with wind and you see swell periods under 16 secs . This afternoon shouldn't be effected by tide as much as it would if it was pure SW or even WSW swell direction. But timing of the swell indicates that it's a short peak in swell height .
I wouldn't worry too much this painful period of East and Sth winds has to end sometime :-)
Been watching the last coupla of hours. A forecast of 4-5ft would be under, and 6-8ft over. Looks 5-6ft with a few bigger bombs.
And here's my statement "Conditions will be workable but not the best with an early W'ly breeze, giving into SW winds mid-morning." Aireys observations are pretty bang on..
Meanwhile at the contest site it blew onshore all night and all morning. Maybe half an hour of cross shore WSW if you want to be generous. I did mention bigger sets in my prediction and we still have a full afternoon under a high tide influence. Craig, pointing to wind readings 25km away (influenced by the Otway ranges to back up your forecast is grasping at straws. You should put me on a retainer to give you lot a better forecast. Southey knows what he's talking about.
You're an idiot, so let's also forget the bang of forecast swell for Thursday afternoon, Friday, Saturday etc...
hahahah now come on Craig
How's the view from Sydney? You got the wind and size wrong. That's cool, forecasting is an in exact science, but stop trying to bluff your way out of it with irrelevant wind readings. I notice you guys haven't been the official comp forecaster for about 8 years. Wonder why!!!
"You got the wind and size wrong. "
Probably worth pointing out that you got the size wrong too.
Here's some wind observations from Juc..
That of course depends on where the station is at Jan Juc. I was on the cliffs most of the morning and it was Sw
You must get really furious watching the comp, Vic Local
"Call that a layback snap? That's clearly a layback Jam, Turpel you goose! I'm going to take to the internet under a pseudonym and start complaining about something that takes significant resources to put on and I can access for free" Best you hand back your Swellnet Pro membership if you're not satisfied with the service.
When Gary overdoes his supplements program and gets a little touchy, he generally settles down with a nice relaxing spray tan. Maybe you should give these guys a call? http://www.surfcoastspraytans.com.au
Gaz , Amasing . I can only presume that is your sister / mother . There is only one way someone could have as good a rig as yourself , I can't fathom a manly man like yourself although meticulously scaped actually having the snip / op .
Vic local ,
how about you get spray tanned in ya footy shorts and wife beater , that way you can pull the ol' mate's balmy here still ( june ) ," i was in boardies until last week " hard core act . Give the guys a break , its a complex zone ....
One last thing , the man that works out multiple coast lines is always going to have one up on the guy that never leaves one spot . I've seen guys from Melbourne have it more sussed than some locals , why is Sydney any different , you do realise that apart from Stu WZ team are Crow eaters . Thats a head ache in itself if they grew up in Adelaide , so you would think they would have far more on the line when they go for a surf and it involves up to 12hrs of driving . Anyone can live on a cliff , never leave it and know more than a blowin about that specific spot , a coast maybe different , interstate definitely international to the point of forecasting places you've never set foot on is another realm .
Give them a break , they are better than the other Muppets .
Here's your chance to really cover yourself in gold , call the peak day (to within a few hours) of the swell later this week . I want wind, swell interval and height. You've got an hour to respond . Otherwise your a dreamer . See how you go developing a forecast beyond the models , and then everyone can pick shit out of that . Otherwise , be a good little boy and run off back to Fisho's .
I don't believe in predicting size days out from an event. The Surf Coast has way too many variables to do that. Especially early season. The Surf Coast is not like the east coast or Indo where swell prediction is so easy.
The storm hasn't even entered the Bells swell window so lets not go nuts just yet. If the weather pattern forecasted becomes a reality, the next swell looks way better in terms of quality than this one. It won't be huge but at this stage it looks super consistent over an extended period of time.
So chumps, if you are planning on coming down, surf at the breaks that suit your ability and stay away from the pop if you can't duck dive, won't take a set on the head for someone up and riding, or can't make a 4 foot takeoff. Take Southey's advice and stick to fishos.
Good call VICLOCAL, LOCAL LOCAL amongst the VICTORIAN BORDER .
OOOppps.
"Give them a break , they are better than the other Muppets .
Here's your chance to really cover yourself in gold , call the peak day (to within a few hours) of the swell later this week . I want wind, swell interval and height. You've got an hour to respond . Otherwise your a dreamer . See how you go developing a forecast beyond the models , and then everyone can pick shit out of that . Otherwise , be a good little boy and run off back to Fisho's ."
Southey has a day of!(Very rare), as many posts are late in the morning, after fitting solar panels , on roofs late at night. fair call tho, eh?
Keep it rolling tho, as do those big ol 'Southern Ocean ' storms that develop way beyond our imagination;)
Safer installing them in the night Welly ;-)
Zero sun = Zero voltage . ( just pray for no meteors or other flashes in the night !
Someone needs a soapy.
looks like the odd 7-8fters rolling in from watching the web cast. Size looks smaller from the web cam than what it actually is.
.
You obviously did your forum apprenticeship on the seabreeze website viclocal you fkn Muppet.
Seen the surf at Bells lately fellas? Swell has dropped off significantly just as I predicted. Thanks for the link Gary G. I do love a spray tan. I like to wear a skivvy and just do the face and neck so I can get the cold water surfer look for the comp.
Just switched back on and easy 6ft sets..
6ft sets? oh please. Does that mean it was 10ft this morning?
When the commentators at the comp run through all their favourite AFL teams and start talking about the Torquay Tigers, you know it's not six foot.
Looks double overhead on the sets to me. That's 6ft isn't it?
Vic Local commented Sunday, 27 Mar 2016 at 9:13am
It's probably about time you guys now bow down and admit that I am your surf forecasting overlord for this part of the world.
Most of the day will be in the 4-5ft range but I'm sure there will be the odd bigger set during the morning low tide.
Yeah Craig put him on a retainer $1 a year and all the free swellnet he can watch......gotta be the biggest 4-5 ft ive seen and i thought it looked more like 6ft plus..
Yeah this is farcical.
So Vic L is saying it's dropped signifcantly from his morning 4-5ft call.
Which means what? 3-4ft or less, but there's still double OH sets...
Craig do have any idea why we had such a miserable summer and now autumn? It was all east/ south east and a squillion knots. This was on the back of a great spring lead in. I reckon if we get one northerly a week it is a miracle. The days of beautiful weather were always onshore the only saving grace is that there has always been swell (east of Melbourne that is which is doable). Now we have some serious swell and it is still south east every day. When will it end?
Well we're still in the transition stage, autumn really kicks off when be pass the Equinox which is the 21st of March.
There's always a lag though, and it seems this lag could be getting longer between season with the changing global climate.
It's also due to the storm track and where it's postioned. When further north and over Victoria is when you see the NW to SW patters, but it's not been in this position for the recent swells.
Later this week is when we see a more favourable pattern with good swells and winds for the Surf Coast.
I suppose it was more a question of the spate of east/ south east. Most summers we get a few sea breezes then a few days northerlies then a change and around we go again. Got nada of that this year, I reckon we got a month of howling east/ south east and not so howling since. Is this an El Nino issue?
Hmm hard to say, those stationary highs setting up camp, especially into the end of summer didn't help at all, and this also prevented any troughs moving in from the west, bringing those once a week N-NE winds.
OK thanks has been no fun just hope we start getting a few offshores.
Maybe 6ft Queensland scale, but not down here.
Sorry mate this is an argument that you lost. Up till an hour ago I watched every single wave ridden from the cliffs or the beach and it was bigger than your "4 to 5" foot. And don't give me the Vicco scale thing, I'm from South Oz and our 6 foot is even bigger than yours. Think youve gotta take this one on the chin.
As someone who surf bells often I loved hearing the commentators today use words like "big" and "massive" it does wonders for my self esteem! My girlfriend even said "what are they on about I've seen you surf bells much bigger than that".
Id call it solid 4 to 6 foot with the odd bigger set, with heaps of push and looking very hard to surf.
One thing it sure wasn't 8 to 10 foot like Pottz and commentators were calling it this morning.
I like the cut of your jib indo-dreaming. The WSL commentators were getting pretty OTT. The local commentators on site were way more realistic. 8-10ft? Give me a break. If it's 8-10ft getting off the beach is a serious mission, especially if it's onshore. We are talking about 3 attempt paddle outs, button bashing madness, and crew ducking out from behind Jarosite Reef and drifting down. 8-10ft and you're looking at crew travelling from Winki to Juc the hard way. i.e. with half or no board getting belted for 20 minutes.
I spent dawn to right now (6pm) standing at sea level photographing the comp. Some of the last sets were as big as the earliest sets. I'd call it at least solid 6ft all day. I'm far more interested in the Thur/Fri/Sat situation now than where this thread is heading so can we re-focus the debate on that and I'll be the judge of Vic Local vs. Craig haha?
Love your work Ed. Local snappers are some of the best judges of conditions. Good to know your scale. Round two, bring it on.
Thanks Ed!
Vic L you called good enough to pique my interest and wonder if you really do know a great deal about the local knowledge as u say .
1. Is this attenuation due to bottom friction in effect ?
2. What does it take for bells to be the size of the "81 contest ?
Yes part 2 of camls question I'm very interested in
Question 1. Had to consult the dictionary to find out WTF "attenuation" was? Something to do with distance and loss of signal. Not exactly sure what you mean, but plenty of people get too excited about storms west of WA. We've got this big thing called Cape Otway that kinda kills those swells for the Surf Coast.
Question 2. I've seen the 4 day synoptic chart from the 81 swell. The core of the storm was off the map (probably about 3000km south of the continent), but it looked like someone used a wide white board maker to draw the isobars. It was a seriously large system with a centre that seemed to be located under SA. No idea what the lowest pressure was but it was probably in the 930hpa's. I saw one similar a few years ago that stalled in between Africa and WA. Surf was 10-15ft outside corner at Uluwatu. The really big sets were a very long way apart. Every 30 mins a clean up set came through.
Hey vic l sorry didn't explain better twas a bit rushed when writing before . Your reply gave me one bit of info ; you saw the chart for the "81 swell .
So are you saying that the swell was west enough to be shadowed by cape otway ?
Another question for you or anyone ; what was the period of the '81 swell ( obviously a guess )
Considering the tas & pn & cdc buoys were rather big im interested to know why bells wasn't bigger . I have no local knowledge btw . Vic l u might want to look up attenuation further
You'll need to watch footage to work out what the 81 ' period was .
And those charts don't say much , except the final frontal progression came through pretty strong . The afternoon and following day of hag swell wee pretty windy .
But I would suggest that the swell source was definitely off the charts . However that final frontal progression helped that swell push up into Vic .
We've heard of S SA getting solid that day too , my money is on that here was a really strait long westerly fetch for a number of days that fed into a extremely strong low down close to Antarctic shelf . Which acted fastly upon an already XL W swell ( I don't mean W of Vic ) but was running parallel to Sthn Aust coast , then a real intense cut off acted upon that way down directly under SA . So then you have a rapid developing Swell then flowing up to combine with the previous West energies obtuse radial spread swell .
So in short the swell arrived before the next front which in itself boosted the swell train further .
Not just one massive /intense storm produced that swell .
I think in 86'87 , and once in the mid 90's Vic almost got blown off the map by what looked like someone spilled a shot load of black on the white synoptic charts .
Swell still didn't get near 81 .
So I would say that charts in 81 were not that accurate .
Ascat is a really good tool , but to know how multiple systems act on each other is wizardry .
Regardless this week has s shit load of ingredients .
The LWT forecast I saw and posted the other day looked EPIC , but has since has Cooled it's heels a little . Plenty of time for that to flip flop around . Promising sign is how long this swell has held in , which says that Thursday-Friday's extraordinary long westerly fetch from west of Sth Africa to the system that created today's swell will see plenty of background westerly energy for the next system to build on . Lastly a blocking pattern /high that connected to the LWT forecast helps a system rotate on itself and let multiple front act upon each other's resultant swells .
Mates have got video of winter 86 of themselves surfing winki with 1 other guy, I was away at the time, they called it 15ft and it looked it, onshore low tide, should have seen the water suck off that reef when a set approached:-))
Yeah , well everyone's carrying on about whatever . I've only seen bells bigger than 10ft twice .
And it ties in with what someone said on Pg 3 . Being that 81 ' rose out of the previous days being offshore . The most times i've seen it BIG is when its been cross onshore , or only been offshore for a few hours in the morning after being Sth or some sort of onshore the day prior . SO not a long period swell. And a little wonky . The only day i've seen it with atleast 10-12 hours of offshore leading into a glassy windless day . I was way out west and only started returning when the Northerly ruined where i was . i rolled into the carpark to see Troy Brooks with snapped board in hand after apparently trying to be the first to ride past the button into winki for a slab bet . I didn't see it , but apparently unsucessful . Anyway that day was a mysto swell , locals where i was in the morning were intrigued by my presence the night before . And by all reports , Bells / Winki was almost deserted early as no one saw it coming . Anyway that day was BIG , but still a little wonky , even with a light offshore / no wind .
I would hazard a guess that 81' stands out because it was groomed offshore , and that created cleaner conditions and also made the swell stand up longer and drawing into the reef further /harder . Which as we all know will make it suck up bigger than most onshore days . i only know of one other day which could have compared , i was young and somewhere else more protected . But i haven't seen this spot anywhere near as big since . Storm surge comes into and so does heightened tides from very low local atmospheric pressure . But lets not get too technical .
Btw I thought this was a ssw angle swell today but if not then I already understand better . Did see the synoptic chart and it seemed to be quite sth . Also I was told that it's a ssw swell by southey
Direction for me was SW. Low did most of its work south of the Bight.
caml. Here's a quick breakdown of swells at Bells.
1. Direction. Absolutely the most crucial factor. If there is too much west in the swell it pretty much misses Bells (anything over 240 degree I don't get too excited about. Under 230 it starts to get interesting.)
2. Storm track. The best storms come up from the deep south and crap ones move from the NW to the SE. If you see a system developing in the bight, it's highly unlikely to produce any swell on the surf coast.
3. Storm speed. A storm that stalls in the swell window and sits there for days on end produces much better surf than the fast moving storms. Fast moving storms can be good if they get replaced by a new one. Great swells have a core low with multiple fronts imbedded that sit there for days.
4. Storm strength: Pretty obvious really.
5. Local winds: Anything from the East really knocks the swell about. Strong westerlies in Bass straight can break up a swell reducing quality.
6. Time of year: A storm in March will often deliver a much smaller swell than a similar looking one in mid July.
7. Tides: Again a huge factor. A great swell can handle a high tide while a fragile swell can virtually disappear on the high.
8. Swell Window/period: Some people get super excited by long period swells (16 sec +). The source of these is usually way out to the west at the very edge of the swell window. These swells are super inconsistent and rarely live up to the hype. Best swells are typically in the 13-16 second range. Hope this helps.
Great info thanks vic ,some information there . your point 8 relates to the attenuation too , because a short period won't attenuate as much as a big perod due to the long shelf in bass straight , it will roll in unaffected . L vic did you look at sn forecast & know that the period would be the problem or was it the direction today ? I rate southeys theory that it was a ssw swell that attenuated heavily . But that still doesn't explain pnp at 4.5@17 & bells not what I would've hoped
great to see the southern men firing up.
hows the next week looking gents?
Work it out for yourself ya lazy bugger
http://www.portofmelbourne.com/port-operations/waves-wind-and-weather
Note that the tide doesn't fuck with strong long period swells as much .
Point 6 sorry is wrong.
You don't get different swell sizes from the exact same storm forming during different times of the year.
My guess is you are looking at synoptics and not the actual fetch and core-wind speeds. This would lead to different sized swells resulting from 'similar' looking systems.
Onto the forecast, probably no increase in size until very late Thursday, so clean 2ft range.
Then Friday clean but inconsistent 3-5ft through the morning, easing through the day.
More consistent W/SW swells for next weekend, building Saturday and peaking Sunday in the 4-5ft range.
Maybe I should rephrase point 6 and say that mid winter tends to produce more pleasant surprises (undercalls) while early season swells tend not to live up to the hype, arrive late, and fade quicker.
Viclocal whats your forecast champ?
Fishos, Lorne, or PI. Maybe Brighton if the Southerly blows hard enough.
Free ride . I'd be more excited by that system south of Tonga if I were you ;-)
Move along nothing to see. Lol
Craig I do agree with VL In regard to point 6 .
But only on a technicality . Due to the southern storm track being further north , then pre existing energy is usually higher when a system forms .
Remember also that the further Sth a place is the more chance it catches a swell as if peak energy fades and the peak size fades SE .
This is he core reason why swell heights ( usually from a bog standard SW Swell are biggest SW Tas. then SW Vic and SE Tas , then S SA then tie between MP and EP , PI and Fleureau , Surf Coast then WP and Mid . ) .
But that is s rally broad generalization , just like saying a swell is swell . Tides , period and winds vary all this .
No mention of pre-existing sea state was mentioned though.
Excactly
Viclocal is all over it give him a gig Stu.
Where's the damn "like" button?
Don't know why you guys obsess on the "81" swell, seen and surfed bigger swells down here before and after that. Only difference was they weren't at Easter so no one heard of them and there wasn't any forums, personally I thought Easter 82 was way better than 81, not so much size but quality.
If it didn't involve professional surfers it didn't happen Hako.
Yeah it probably didn't ,but it was more fun with out them
Okay Shaun . No doubt that there have been bigger swells . I however am unaware of a bigger clean swell than that day . Unless you count 67?!? Or when ever that was . You know how things were way better In the old days .
I know an old bloke ( that I never saw surf ) , but know that he was a pioneer in the days when clubbies and surfers were still talking . And he said he's been out at Bells at 18ft , I asked him to look at a few photo's I had of elsewhere ( Hawaii etc ) , and he correctly called accurate size without hesitation or any order questioning /promoting by myself .
I still don't trust old guys memories that much , but he is a pretty understated guy ?!
He's also a crack shot with a rifle , and we were hunting at the time so I was n't going to pester him on credibility . I have no idea of date but would have been early mid sixties .
Are u that old . Surely not , I thought the dole only started in the 70's ?!? Haha
Some of it did, but it was a different time then and pro surfers were a different breed, they were quite comical actually. If you were collecting the dole you were probably earning more than most pro surfers. :-))
VL are you really going to call someone out then be too scared to have a dig yourself?
Do you do that in the water too?
Will it be your in 3-4ft = double overhead scale?
Shoredump. I reckon putting a numeric size on surf 5 days out on the surf coast is madness. We don't even have a swell producing storm yet. If the forecast is accurate, a deepening low will develop tomorrow way out west and south of WA. Not even in the swell window (yet). So it's way too early to make any definitive calls.
Next few days will see a fading swell with onshore winds.
And where exactly did i forecast 3-4ft? My forecast was 4-5ft with bigger sets declining during the day with low quality. Pretty bloody accurate and I was at the beach for a large proportion of the day. If you're going to have a crack at me, do us all a favour and stopping making shit up.
I agree with Vic LOCAL --- for us crew that ride big waves in Vicco and sunset at 2 to 3 and especially crew who ride Cloudbreak and know they can surf a slab better than a girl - today was 3 to 4ft with the odd bigger set. -- and how's this ridiculous quote from Slater - what a pussy - He needs a lesson in size of surf from the forecasters here....."Kelly Slater, who surfed his first winning heat of 2016 this morning. “It’s a lot of work out there right now,” Kelly said. “I mean, you ride a wave for 500 yards and you feel like you barely do a turn on the thing. Tim (Bisso) and I both got caught inside on some big waves. I had one, probably a 10-foot wave, land right in front of me and I didn’t want to bail out, because then I might break my leash. The thing pushed me super deep and it probably held me down for 10 seconds, along with my board, which is pretty rare. The longest wipeout I’ve had in about a month. I got beat down a couple times in that heat.
I am sticking with Kelly. After seeing the hammering he took in Fiji a few years ago and the recent Eddie, I think he knows size and we all know how much water there is in a decent size Bells wall. The thing seems a mile thick, the white water is a dog and you never seem to be our far enough. Don't see the fun in that.
Thanks vic ive learned a few things from this discussion . Its good to reference certain swells with dates or pictures so others can get the idea
Well caml if you think you have vicco worked out by forecasting you will probably waste a lot of fuel trying to cherry pick swells. The best surfs I have had in the past 10 years have not been forecast as classic conditions and not in any particular season, if told you the best time to surf where I live for quality uncrowded waves , you'd be surprised.
No I don't have vicco worked out but I did learn a few things because I take interest in the southern ocean , the ocean has no borders
One thing I have worked out is that all older vicco surfers undercall wave size in a traditional way . It is totally standard
Of course they do, I agree, 3 to 4 feet easily mistaken for about 10 feet - totally acceptable
Ithought Sunset was 2 to 3 meters but Tony from Big Island Hawaii told me "no - it was 2 to 3 feet. Cloudbreak surfer knows he can handle Cloudbreak therefore he can surf better than chic on slab. And what about Mason Ho -- he also needs lesson from the forecasters here in calling swell size - “Seriously,” Mason added. “You could easily die out there right now, it’s so gnarly! If you got stuck under a big set with your board, your leggie would snap, and if the jet-ski wasn’t nearby you’d be in trouble.”
Bob, I think tony was pulling your leg, I have never heard anyone who lives there using the back of the wave bullshit, just something probably made up by a surf journalist spicing up an article, no doubt turn the next page and there will be a feature on shaping a board with an axe. :-))
And this surf journo from another site - how ridiculous - his credibility, along with Slater and Mason Ho...forever tainted because Vic LOCAL -- he verifies it at 3 to 4
"It wasn’t quite ’81, but it was a muscular 10-foot, and every guy who surfed today will be leaking salt water in their sleep tonight."
Bells '81 was solid 8ft with plus sets(10ft) through the morning, dropping back in the arvo. The day before was around 5ft and the day after I can't remember. What made it so memorable was that it was super clean light winds sun out, and in those days no one knew it was coming, everyone just got up and there it was. There was talk at the time that Claw knew because he'd spoken to China Gilbert who'd called it, but I don't know if it's true or part of the legend. Bells gets that big a few times a year, sometimes as clean, but if the pros are in town there's a good chance it will be overcalled size wise.
One thing that may have been missed in the above posts is the effect a northerly has on Bass Strait swells, straightening them up. IMO the best swells have had some north wind on them as they approach. Best days are north swinging NW.
Best days are north swinging north:) on a weekday.
The waves must have been pretty average yesterday going by the news footage, I have very rarely seen bells look bad on the nightly news, it's been something that has always amazed me. They always manage to 3 or 4 good shots for the sports segment from a whole days surfing, but not yesterday.
I was nowhere near bells yesterday, but I was surfing the same swell. I have no doubt that there were 10ft rouge sets at bells, I was at a place more protected and there were hefty sets and a lot of them.
I agree with you Hako, it didn't look great on the vision, but this is about size I reckon Hako, you need to take a lesson from Vic LOCAL about how to call wave size. Then , you'll come out after a surf , some people might think it was a big surf and you can say, nah, it's only 3 to 4...and your status as big wave charger is increased. Also throw in the line, queenslanders will call it 6ft, but big wave hero's, we only call it 3 feet. Then you can mention your trip to Cloudbreak and how you can handle riding slabs that girls ride.
I don't need to call wave size, when I pull into the carpark and the waves are good, I'm not pulling out my phone to tell my mates what the conditions are and when I get out of the water why talk about how big it is to someone that is standing next to you? They have eyes don't they ?
Been offline for the last week, and personally didn't see the surf yesterday (not even on the webcast), but to weigh in on the size debate - here's two quotes to throw into the mix, both from early Sunday morning:
Kieran Perrow: "The swell has come up overnight and it is bombing out there in the solid eight foot range on the sets".
Maurice Cole: "Solid six-foot plus still getting bigger".
Seems to fit in pretty well with Craig's call.
Yep, two blokes with a vested interest in whipping the crowd into a frenzy by putting up big numbers. As for Sean Doherty's call of muscular 10 foot on the other site. Sean's one of Australia's best surf journos and I really enjoy some of his books. I also like how he writes for adults instead of spotty 16 year olds, but he lost a lot of credibility with his 10 foot call. Maybe the Eddie can get a gig at Bells one year? If yesterday was 10 foot, it regularly exceeds to the 20 foot thresh hold!!!!!. 10 ft? The pros were all on 6'1"s-6'4"s. They're good, they're not that good.
They are, Kelly rode that bombie that they had that noodle thingy contest at on a board around 6'2"ish
Spot on. Bells at 10ft requires at least a 7ft board ( I myself ride a 9'2 at 10ft bells). the sweep alone makes holding position impossible on a 6ft board when it's a proper 10ft.
Sorry all I must have got confused, I thought we were talking about Bells where they are holding the contest, once you get out past the shorebreak into deep water there is very little sweep, Winkis a very different kettle of fish.
Holding your position out at rincon requires you to be in a sitting position , very little paddling required.
Iv only had the pleasure/challenge of surfing bells at 10ftplus 3 times and the sweep required constant paddling. Once with northerly and twice with a sw'ly and the sw'ly made the sweep even worse. But if yesterday was 10ft I need to readjust my scale too. There my biggest day out at Bells is 15-20 foot.
Not so convinced about your sweep argument at Bells curl, but it's definitely the case for Winki. Late yesterday a mate (who is an above average long term local) paddled out at Winki on his 6'3". And guess what? He didn't end up getting swept down to Juc.
At 10 foot and onshore, you need a very big gun and supreme fitness just to get out and hold position. We are talking jet ski assist conditions. Anyone surfing winki with a jetski yesterday would have been run out of town wild west style!!
I've only surfed 10 foot Bells about 5 times and it's entirely different to 8 foot Bells. You really need to position yourself virtually under the lip and paddle like a boss to catch a wave. Everything is super steep and critical and there's no easy entry. If you're behind a section at that size, there's no chance of recovering. It's pounding time.
I only had the chance once on a northerly and the sweep was not bad at the bowl but the end section was sucking me to the button like it was a black hole. But on a sw'ly onshore I found constant paddling was required otherwise every time a set would come I was out of position. But I bow to your knowledge as your 5 surfs to my 3 makes you 40% more experienced at big bells than me.
Funny thing though on one of the onshore days I thought I'd try to get a wave at winki after surfing bells and caught one wave and had a massive paddle/rock climbing / walk back that I'll never forget. And now I know why no one surfs winki when bells is big.
Yesterday wasn't 10ft. From everything I watched and observed it looked to be in the 5-6ft+ range.
Not sure if you have to bow down to me curl. A couple of my surfs out on 10 ft + days were pretty ordinary to say the least. One surf involved 3 attempts to get beyond the shore break, 1 wave, a clean up set, a snapped 7'6" and a swim towards Centerside cliff that saw me get out of the water halfway down Bells beach.
I've also done the swim from winki to the steps at steps. Total carnage after snapping a leggie and having my board pounded up against a cliff. I abandoned it and resigned my self for the swim. Some other swimmer grabbed my smashed up board for his journey. We both passed another punter sitting half way up the cliff freezing his arse off waiting for the tide to drop. After both swims, I went home and had a two hour afternoon nap. Ahhh the memories, good times.
If anyone ends up doing the East of Winki swim, my advice is to stay about 20 meters off the cliff and let the sweep do the work. Start preparing for the steps at steps as soon as you pass Boobs. If you miss them, it's off to Juc via the lagoon that sets up behind Caulders followed by a pretty nasty section around Bird Rock.
I think we've all be humbled by the sea at some point, that same day I had a rock climb out of the bottom of winki a bodyboard who had never surfed before paddled out at winki and got washed up at juc according to the Surfcoast times.
One times surfing 6ft+ Winki on an incoming tide I didn't realise that the beach doesn't keep running down the coast.
I surfed one right down near the end and started to head in towards the cliffs to then find myself in that little bay with waves crashing in and up over the jagged rocks.
I was buggered and a paddle back out and around would of been hell, so I had to slowly pick my way across the sharp rocks in between surging sets to finally get back in and up the stairs probably 20 minutes later. Won't do that again!
Left humbled and panting, but it feels amazing. About 5 minutes after survival.
Ha ha ha this thread is gold!
Not a good look for Vicco locals "Vic Local", when you have to grow an extra testicle for 10 foot Bells. My lord, is there a softer big wave than Bells? The only thing funnier was your warning about being able to take a "four foot drop at Winki". Ha ha ha...
Keep it up champ, you're killing me.
By the sounds of it Viccos locals 10ft is what many would call 12-15ft foot and some bigger, I dont know where your from but Bells might be a fairly fat wave but it can still be one with quite a lot of power especially when a high period swell, not to mention it's an unpredictable beast you can easily get caught inside and when on a wave easily be caught behind a section and cartwheeled in the whitewash towards shore or held down deep.
Big wave surfing is not really my thing, but as long as it' not crzazy id much rather paddle out at a big hollow predictable peeling wave in warm water especially on Aussie east coast, compared to big unpredictable lumpy slight onshore cold water bells.
That about sums it up indo, I asked stan where he was from also , wondering whether he had surfed it and understood how much power the swells have down here.
Stan what do you mean softer wave? Bells does have a shoulder and can be fat and burgery but it still has one hell of a punch, I've snapped boards by the dozens out there and had my ass handed to me by the shore break. Anyone who has surfed bells knows it as a powerful wave.
If there's one thing for certain - it's that surfers still absolutely cannot agree on wave heights - Sunday's surf has been called anywhere between 4ft and 10ft.
And this is before we bring in the "face feet or surfers feet" measurements.
We did a short article on surfer's inability to agree on wave heights around four years ago, and the results were the same.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2012/06/01/how-big-guess...
It's quite funny really, 4-10ft is quite a range. How on earth can anyone say with any form of certainty what the size of waves are, with such a varying opinion amongst surfers?
In my personal and meaningless opinion, I'd say there were waves in the 2-5ft range in between the sets on Sunday, with the bigger sets being what I would call 6-8ft. This is based on roughly once overhead (1.8m) being 3ft, and doubling from there. I like to think most surfers agree with this principle.
I do find overcalling/undercalling wave sizes quite funny. People who overcall waves are usually inexperienced surfers, with a few years experience or less. Normally people undercalling wave heights tend to be more seasoned surfers, with a few years under their belt. This experience however, doesn't necessarily make them right. The natural progression side of surfing means that as we surf more often, we get better at it and more comfortable in bigger waves. If you keep pushing yourself on bigger waves, pretty soon what's big to you now won't be at some point in the near future. Then there's the fact that we always look upon past events with a sense it was better, bigger, less crowded or whatever. How many times do you hear people say 'it doesn't break like it used to', or 'we used to get way more swell'. The reality is, time makes people lose their grips on wave perception too. Experienced surfers undercall waves, simply because they think they've surfed it bigger in the past.
Nah.
Ask Caml champ, as he is great at calling wave size.
Far from all off our opinions, to say the least.
Specks of dust in a time line;)
Good read but I also think that there is a difference in asking the size of a single wave at a single point in time to asking size of a surf session. In vic more than anywhere else that I have experienced a random clean up wave can come through much bigger than the norm for the day. And the photo in the link I would call scary and 6ft with a 6ft lip on top equaling a 12ft wave. Not my cup of tea. Saturday was 4 to 5 but I'm sure you could take a photo and put forward an argument for a big 6 ft or even a small 8ft.
southey commented Sunday, 27 Mar 2016 at 10:11pm
Okay Shaun . No doubt that there have been bigger swells . I however am unaware of a bigger clean swell than that day . Unless you count 67?!? Or when ever that was . You know how things were way better In the old days .
I know an old bloke ( that I never saw surf ) , but know that he was a pioneer in the days when clubbies and surfers were still talking . And he said he's been out at Bells at 18ft , I asked him to look at a few photo's I had of elsewhere ( Hawaii etc ) , and he correctly called accurate size without hesitation or any order questioning /promoting by myself .
I still don't trust old guys memories that much , but he is a pretty understated guy ?!
He's also a crack shot with a rifle , and we were hunting at the time so I was n't going to pester him on credibility . I have no idea of date but would have been early mid sixties .
Are u that old . Surely not , I thought the dole only started in the 70's ?!? Haha
Left school and signed straight onto the dole November 75 want back to school at the start of Feb, got kicked off the dole around April, Golden years southy. Set the scene for the next 2 decades.
Fair enough stan I'm a bit flabbergasted myself that these blokes giving there expert opinion have only surfed it at size less than a hand full of times . Though viclo gave us a few good tips if ever we're silly enough to surf winki on a big swell and king tide, much rather surf rincon or a few other places in those conditions.
Where are you from stan?
"Left school and signed straight onto the dole November 75 want back to school at the start of Feb, got kicked off the dole around April, Golden years southy. Set the scene for the next 2 decades."
I knew it" Bikini G String"
I knew you're untruthfulness towards me , those times we spent, under that skanky bridge mate.
Then you stole my jandal, but said" you didn't"!
Dole bludging liar.
"My lord, is there a softer big wave than Bells?" Talking out your backside there Stan1972. i'll name one right now. Outside Corner Uluwatu. At 10ft that place offers a way easier entry into the wave. Warm water, less of a hold down, much more predictable, and a lot easier to make it out the back.
Fairy Bower and Queenscliff bombie are two more. You remind me of the fat bloke in the carpark who talks shite and carries around a heavily stickered board with not nearly enough foam for show.
Anyways, just a thought here champs!
If yesterday morning was OFFSHORE! would it off been called bigger?
Of course it would have and add another foot if it was a sunny day.
VL you said swell has dropped off significantly just as I had predicted (the prediction was 4-5ft) while it was breaking 1.5-2 X overhead at the time. So what is significantly less than 4-5ft? I think your scale is terrible or you can't own up to your error. It must be a frustrating world for you, if 5 day forecasts bother you. It's kind of the whole point of this website you frequent
Shoredump. the reason why I can't stand five day forecasts for the Surf Coast is because they create crowds and they are very unreliable. I don't take them too seriously but plenty of others do, scheduling time off work, and planning trips down the coast. When the swells don't live up to the hype, the crowd in the water just get silly. People have invested time, partner points, and petrol money for a surf and they go out no matter how crowded it is for the conditions. This happens all the time, and the best sessions down here happen when swells aren't telegraphed to the masses by swellnet and coastal watch. And as for admitting an error in my forecast, I won't be doing that, as you have misrepresented what I actually wrote. My forecast was 4-5ft with bigger sets, poor quality, dropping during the day. Pretty accurate. Learn to read buddy, or stop demanding admissions of error based on misrepresentations.
Thanks wellym . it is the swell buoy readings that matter most to me & I get more info from them than any human . Especially checking thru the night or history data when no one but the faithful old buoy will answer your question
The buoys are you all over Caml.
I've realised that Caml, after reading your tech info.
Don't tell anyone how you do it tho;)
Good work young fella...
SSsssssssshhhhhhhhh...
Well for my 2c there was an occasion I had somewhere between 5 and 10 seconds to observe this wave breaking in front of me on Sunday arvo, before I had to duckdive it and I was debating "is this double head or slightly more?"
A major day as my youngest was paddling around in the lineup somewhere (there were times when we just couldn't see each other as of all the white water and swells), getting a couple of good waves. Sets were solid, sweep was big, a great session.
One other thing, the biggest waves I've seen in my life - 3 of them - and how this relates to the peak of the swell at the Cape Sorrell buoy that Craig linked in p1 of this discussion.
Notice that plateau of 6m between just after midnight Sunday 27 March 2016 and about 8am - within that time there was an individual wave peak of 12m?
Sometime in 2009 I think a big swell hit Bells and was called in that 10ft range. Jetskis towing on Winki, a couple of guys paddled out from Centreside at different times and I watched one get out on the bowl later. We stopped watching about 1pm and driving back I noticed something back in the ocean and pulled over at intersection of Bells Bvd and Bones Rd. I got the camera out and filmed as these 3 huge waves erupted on an outer bombie, then rolled through and entirely closed Bells out across Winki. It was incredible. From this vantage point the regular sets at that size are visible - the land has a gap facing the Bells cliff. These waves were easily double the prevailing sets.
Has anyone else experienced seeing anything like this?
When I was 12 or 13, so around 72/ 73 my dad took me to the comp, from memory it was midgets come back, he came second.
It was huge and glassy, very clean. saw a few sets break wide and I suppose you could call it a close out of sorts, it was breaking in a huge section through rincon but also at the same time a huge peak formed between rincon and out from the button and broke left to meet the rincon section and close out. Also it was a king tide, I remember that well.
I'm pretty sure it was being called at 15ft, it was an overcast drisly day if the sun was shining it would have been 18.
I was only 13 so maybe the memory is magnified , but it is a pretty vivid one. I grew up surfing living and surfing this coast , Ive been surfing bells on and off for 40years and have not seen it peak that wide again.
Ahh those were the days, no leggies, no jet skis and everyone used a shrub as a cushion sitting on the hill where they have the VIP stand today, oh yeah no entry fee:-)
That sounds amazing, and similar. The wave I saw kind of behaved in this way. I spent a bit of time scouring the old PC files after the last post, and located a couple of pics of it as it was feathering up. (I then switched to a grainy video which shows how it breaks, but otherwise is a regret). If I post to Stu, would anyone like to see?
I'm keen!
Me too.
As an aside, 2Dogs is that really you Shaun, you old basket carrier?
You seem to be giving a bit away which points to our old, no punches pulled mate, Shauno. I hope so, I for one have missed you.
If not, carry on old boy.
Yeah Zen, eventually mine and morrises behavior caught up to us and I was looking at doing a bit of time, so I did what any true surfer would do when looking at being deprived of surf, I riggled out of it by pointing the finger at morris and telling them where all the bodies were buried. I had to go into witness protection for a while, hence the new identity.
I'm pretty sure Morris is still in here , perhaps under his prison nickname .
Amasing internet speeds in prison ( so i've heard ) . Access is quite restricted though , and the keyboards tend to stick at times ? . Hence gramatical errors .;-) He's not alone though .
Not sure if G is Gary Fitz , though . Most likely a young punk with a name like Liam or something similar .
Sweet man.
Welcome back. Been too long.
Took you awhile Zen;)
The scabs that get picked of and come back the next day, gave it away.
Haha
I'm not exactly the sharpest tool in the shed Welly.
By the way, Whistler/Blackcomb was awesome. Lotta room to move over there.
PS Didn't even occur to me it was Shauno back awhile ago when we were discussing the translation of his name. Crafty fella that he is.
Yeah mate id love to see
i have only seen it twice! once at bass straight and once at southern victoria they were both beach breaks and these bomb sets broke 400 meters out from the surf zone… in short the ocean floor gets gutters created …so in order from the beach gutter impact zone gutter and so on…..this is natures way of protecting its self.
You can post photos here just use http://imgur.com/ (no sign up needed) Its very easy.
-Just go upload images
-Find the file on PC or drag and drop
-Go start upload
-Go to BBcode on right copy
-Then come back here and paste it in your post and click comment.
-Might have to refresh the page to see the pic.
Edit: Yep works fine...(somewhere in Sumatra)
Sure post it
If you can do a floater/fins out thing on your 5,11 its not 10ft(anywhere) i watched a heat with some brazzo guy with a baby bogan name (jaydn or japson or something/) and it was 4-5 ft crumbly crapola.I think he strained his anus and has to get towed back in by a jet ski because he had to paddle all the way out in his heat. I heard them say it was 8ft on the wsl talk box but isnt that what they get paid to do, talk everything up. Nextweek it will be " cutdowns over the bricks" another "margies moment" faaark
If you can do a floater/fins out thing on your 5,11 its not 10ft(anywhere) i watched a heat with some brazzo guy with a baby bogan name (jaydn or japson or something?) and it was 4-5 ft crumbly crapola.I think he strained his anus and had to get towed back in by a jet ski because he had to paddle all the way out for his heat and was exhausted! I heard them say it was 8ft on the wsl talk box with tupey but isnt that what they get paid to do, talk everything up all day? Nextweek it will be " cutdowns over the bricks" another "margies moment" faaark