All eyes on Hawaii as huge storm approaches
A fortnight ago the eyes of the surfing world were on Europe and the 'Hercules' storm that burst out of the North Atlantic Ocean. At the time Hawaii was almost unsurfably small. Since then a series of storms in the North Pacific have wrested attention back to the Hawaiian Islands. The great run of swell will be capped by a beast of a system; a storm that has longtime forecasters cooing with excitement.
The swell generated by this storm will be one of the largest seen in years prompting organisers of the Eddie Aikau Invitational to place the event on hold. A call will be made this afternoon (watch this space).
The storm began as a relatively benign low pressure system drifting east off Japan over the weekend. Yesterday it 'bombed' in the Western North Pacific Ocean, feeding off a deep pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere to the north-west of Hawaii.
A 'bombing low' is defined as a system that drops at least 24hPa in central pressure over a 24hr period. This system has easily surpassed the criteria and dropped down to a very low 958hPa.
Couple this 958hPa with a strong high pressure system (1020hPa) to the low's south-west and what results is a super tight pressure gradient and hurricane-force wind speeds aimed toward the Hawaiian chain.
Compared to the large swell that hit Hawaii mid-December, which developed just west of the international date-line and fell short of Eddie requirements, this next swell will be far larger and more consistent due to the closer proximity to Oahu. A peak is expected through Wednesday afternoon to 35-40 feet before dropping off steadily through Thursday (see the North Shore forecast here).
The one issue with storms that get close to Hawaii is that the swell can arrive with unfavourable winds, and this unfortunately looks to be the case. A strong cold front will shed off the greater storm system and clip the islands bringing moderate to fresh westerly, swinging north-west winds. Effectively straight onshore.
This may be the one limiting factor that will lead the event organisers to call off the contest this afternoon, although Thursday is looking a lot better with easing NE winds but the swell may drop away too quickly to run the whole contest.
Looking further afield, and this swell is aimed perfectly towards Northern California and more specifically Mavericks. Winds look much better as well as the swell peaks early Friday morning under offshore west-northwest winds.
We'll watch and wait for the call this afternoon on whether they'll take on the peak of the swell in large and raw conditions or try and fit in the competition on Thursday.
Comments
And in breaking news, TC says "It's a NO GO for the Eddie this week... possible swell off the back of current storm activity along the North Pacific path next week... stay tuned".
And it's official:
"Organizers of the Quiksilver In Memory of Eddie Aikau big wave invitational at Waimea Bay, Oahu, Hawaii, have officially announced that the event is a "NO GO" for this Wednesday, January 22.
"We have taken all the time we can to assess the developments of the next big swell and it does not look favorable for us," said event organizer Glen Moncata. "The size is there, but the quality is not, due to strong, adverse winds. We will continue to wait for the right conditions."
So the Eddie is off but the Mavericks Invitational is on yellow alert and is very likely to run (better winds).
Erm, shouldn't the hashtag be #EddieSaidTooMuchWind ?
yes it should haha
Cooing with excitement?
More like rueing lost opportunities.
I don't think it's in the right corridor for a proper Mavs swell either.
While the size won't be there for massive Mavericks, there'll certainly still be some good waves especially as that 20s+ period swell focusses in.
Check the todos & cortes forecast for more big wave action ??
Yeah, winds are great for Cortes and Todo Santos, light and variable at 5-10kts.
Yep, looks like the fetch is aimed more at Cortes and Todos.
Wonder if there'll be a big paddle mission on Cortes like December 2012? The swell that Shaun Dollar landed his 60-footer and Greg Long had a three wave hold down?
Speaking of, Long recently wrote an article in Surfer about that event.
"The power of positive thinking is very real, but so is the fact that there are physical limitations and universal laws that we must live by. I desperately needed to get to the surface and breathe. The turbulence of the third wave was impossible to swim against so I climbed my leash, hand over fist. Inch by inch I fought my way up, eventually reaching the tail section of my board, which was submerged 10 feet below the surface. Cramping, numbness and full-body convulsions returned. Any oxygen reserves remaining in my brain were exhausted and I couldn’t get a solid grasp onto my board, so I let it go, taking one last desperate stroke for the surface. It was at this point that I lost consciousness."
Full story here: http://www.surfingmagazine.com/magazine/greg-long-illumination/
Great story. Positive and insightful.
Looking at the forecast for Thursday with an easing swell of 6.8m @ 15.9s and easing NE winds becoming light into the afternoon it seems like they could easily run it.
Winds blowing without too much strength onshore is way more favourable than stiff offshores with big wave surfing making it easier for them to get into the waves.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens.
Looking pretty good at Mavs at the moment, about 15'-20', blue skies, and very consistent. Check: http://www.mavsurfer.com/live_cam/
The camera cuts out often but is easy enough to restart. Looks like the organisers of the Mavs comp will be making a decision soon. The comp is on yellow alert and info has been posted on the website about where punters can park to view the comp or attend the accompanying festival.
Craig, I could be wrong, but I very much doubt they will run on a dropping swell.
Nothing worse than the champagne going flat halfway through the party.
Yeah, that's what I pointed out in the article, and probably the main reason for axing it.
Avalanches will be on Wednesday morning and small window for the windward side at breaks like Explosions.
The 51201 buoy just off the North Shore has picked up a sharp rise in size.
21ft+ (6m+) @ 18-20s
Height:
Period:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=51201
now 28.9 feet at 16 secs and wind is 27 - 33 knots. Goodbye to those houses at Rocky Point
Where's that Mick, (which bouy? )can't see the data.
Nah that's the 51101 buoy, which is well NW of the islands (usually an 8-15 hour lead time to the North Shore, depending on swell period). Craig was referencing the 51201 buoy (just offshore from Waimea), which has been in the 20ft @ 20 sec range for the last four or five hours. That is already above the threshold for maxing Waimea, so you're probably right - see ya later Rocky Point houses!
Guess 32 feet is the peak. the 9:50am reading is now 26 feet at 12secs (????). Which means the swell should peak in the arvo north shore?
Looks like it has peaked out at the 51101 buoy. And that 12s was just a small abberation, has jumped back to 17s.
And with a distance of 500km and travel speed of just under 50km/h using 17s as the mean period it should peak 10 hours after the readings there, and that would be 7pm on the North Shore, late today and after dark.
Meaning it's a bit later than forecast? So tomorrow should also be a bit bigger than forecast..?
Not compared to our forecasts, we've got a peak later today and still very large waves tomorrow and light winds!
The 12 second period reading is misleading as it was a single data point - it's jumped back up to 17 seconds at the last reading. That's the problem with buoys recording swell parameters when there's local wind contamination - it sometimes produces minor discrepancies like this (best to look at the graph and eyeball the trend).
mmm any reason it wouldn't average it out over the hour??
Wow sunset beers will be great viewing at the Bay
And the 51101 buoy (NW of the Hawaiian Islands) is around 32ft at 17 seconds. Haven't seen it this big before!
Wow, that's amazing!
Craig, same buoy as Ben but got the earlier reading at 3:50 am W 27.2 33.0 28.9 16 11.5 NW 29.71 -0.03 70.7 73.9 54.1
Thats 20 feet increase - is it going to get any bigger?
Bad winds and storm surf in Hawaii, now bad winds in NorCal and Mavs event cancelled.
Cortes? Todos?
Maybe Jaws on the downslope?
Mavs ain't cancelled, the decision has been postponed. Should be an announcement soon.
And Mavs is on! Friday local time, first heat 8am.
Jaws is actually looking good this morning!
Images from Elliot Leboe (ACL Cinema): http://instagram.com/acl_cinema
Looks surfable but no doubt that wobble you can see on the end section in shot two is slightly more ....ah....menacing in real life.
Haha, indeed, first one looks tasty but. Apparently Laird is towing.
There ya go, this could be his moment in the sun.
Laird could make a winner out of you yet BB.
We might be all kneeling at the altar of towsurfing by close of play this evening.
Gotta love the internets, fresh off the press, Yuri Soledade on a 'smaller one' by http://instagram.com/acl_cinema
And Mavericks has been called on! Friday local time, first heat 8am.
Awesome!
From the NWS Hawaii Weather Forecast Office, Honolulu
Marine section from the Area Forecast Discussion
issued at: Jan 22, 2014 10:12 AM HST
The giant northwest swell has arrived as expected this morning, with Waimea buoy recently reporting 20 feet at 18 seconds and buoy 51101 reporting 31 feet at 17 seconds. Although some of this is wind waves due to strong northwest winds, it appears that the swell is running quite close to expected values and the latest wavewatch data. Morning surf reports have come in with giant surf as expected on north and west facing shores, and no changes are needed at this time to the existing suite of high surf warnings and advisories, or the surf forecast for Oahu. We expect the surf to continue near current giant levels through the rest of today and into tonight.
We also are continuing a marine weather statement for harbors. Civil defense recently reported that Waianae harbor is impassable to marine traffic due to breaking waves.
A small craft advisory remains in effect for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay.
And tomorrow's wind forecast for Oahu Waters:
"OAHU WINDWARD WATERS THURSDAY: Northeast winds 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt."
"OAHU LEEWARD WATERS THURSDAY: Northeast winds 10 kt."
So basically tomorrow is gonna be off the chain in Hawaii?
Well, its much more complex than that - but I am surprised they called the Eddie off so far in advance. Why not wait 'till the day like they usually do?
Mav's is on for Friday! Go Big Ben!
Posted by a fella on Maui whose been providing updates at Jaws:
Bummer...
Alot of the competotrs for the Eddie have been at Mavericks all week. There are great photos on the XXL site.
Here's one from Dave Wassell
http://www.surftagram.com/dave-wassel-215/
Hectic!
It is absolutely massive over here atm, I am staying beachfront on the rocks at pupukea beach park and have just been watching the waves pound over the rock pools in between here and sharks cove! It's been breaking up into the yards of houses next door and up from us, incredible to watch! Drove down to haleiwa earlier and the waves were breaking up over the road around laniakea! So much water moving around! Also seen a fair few army hummers cruising past with sandbags filling up the back, haven't ventured down towards pipe yet but can imagine some of the houses would be copping it!
Thanks for the update BL. The buoy reports have been going through the roof and the swell ain't supposed to peak till 7pm. Hawaii Met has forecast 10kt NE winds for tomorrow. If that forecast holds it's gonna be incredible viewing tomorrow.
Haha yer we have had to move all the cars and stuff from under the house out the front coz the water was starting to wash through! The traffic on the roads has also been absolute bedlam! Absolute chaos with soo many ppl trying to get a look in. I'm looking forward to the show at waimea tomorrow morning! Even today has been good enough! Some of the beasts coming in at ke iki shorey have been going fully square and spitting! Incredible to watch... I thought it was pretty big last Friday so can't wait to see what tomorrow will bring
Wow, sounds incredible. Keep the updates coming, and any snaps if you get the opportunity!
Lots of photos from the large swell pounding the North Shore here: http://swllnt.com/1bjkd73
Couple of absolute monsters here, how's the second double up!! A 30ft double up!
Image by Paul Knue http://instagram.com/tippyknue
Image by Olivia Gomez http://instagram.com/livaloha
This shot is quite amazing. The outline of the reef is crazy.
Photo by Zack Vazquez: http://instagram.com/zjvasquez
And how's this monster foamball!
Photo by Morey Inc http://instagram.com/moreychallenge
Looks like Eric Sterman was getting the goods at Jaws today: http://instagram.com/ericsterman
Actually is the same shot but different angle from the sequence above, 2nd shot.