Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro
April 27th - May 4th

The cut has come down on the Championship Tour, a bunch of relieved surfers now head east into the Pacific, while their former counterparts, plus a motley crew of aspirants, head north for the first stop on the 2024 Challenger Series - the Gold Coast Pro.

Now in its third year as a Challenger Series event, this year's Gold Coast Pro has been brought forward almost two weeks. The reason for that is unknown - an early Easter? rejigged schedule for the Olympics? - but the result is better for swell potential as the Gold Coast's tradeswell season draws to a close.

Some other matters before we get to the forecast...

Did you spill tears when Kelly retired from competition last week? Yes..? Then you'll be pleased to know he's a confirmed starter on the Goldy. Unless, of course, a better swell appears in Fiji, the Marshalls, Pohnpei, or Africa.

If Robert Kelly Slater does opt out, then fear not as Taro Kelly Slater Watanabe is on the wait list and should take his place.

Other starters? Callum Robson - with a new sponsor to boot - a recovered Joao Chianca, Chippo Willcox, plus a new generation of Aussie rippers in Jarvis Earle, Dakoda Walters, and Joel Vaughan - no sign of Hughie.

For the women, Sal is in, India of course - she won it last year - while last year's ninth placegetter, Sierra Kerr, is back with even greater expectations, and Erin Brooks from Canada by way of Hawaii and every wavepool in between.

Last year Sierra was beaten by Steph one heat before the Quarter-Finals (WSL)

OK, the waves. The preferred swell direction for Snapper is roughly east, however the event will kick off with a pure south swell making its presence felt. South of Byron Bay the waves will be in the 5-6 foot range, but north of the Cape the steep southerly direction will kneecap the size.

Competitors can expect 2-3 feet of southerly swell to round the point at Snapper, the waves foamballing their way down the line. Fortunately, there'll also be a less vigorous east swell of the the same size blending into the mix. Expect better shape from that element.

The wind will start light southwest, strengthen as it turns southerly and then southeasterly through the day, before possibly backing off again late.

That wind pattern will also apply to Sunday.

The swell on Sunday will see the southerly component reduce as the easterly swell picks up the slack, remaining in the 2-3 feet range - possibly less consistent than Saturday. Both days should be contest days.

As the working week begins, the southerly swell will fall away entirely while the easterly swell taps the brakes, though there's just enough structure in the tradewind belt to maintain energy in the 2-3 feet range through Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday - see image below. Expect size variations through the tide phases. These may dictate run times.

Light winds from the southwest early each day will give way to light southerlies, except for Wedneday when a stronger southerly wind will herald a change in the weather and swell pattern.

The southerly change will build a short period south/southeast swell that'll make for low-quality 2-3 feet waves through Thursday and Friday. While by degrees the southerly wind will ease so that by Friday morning the Gold Coast should again feel the effect of a southwest landbreeze.

Meanwhile, more interesting developments are occurring further afield. Early next week, a deepening trough off New Zealand's northeast coast should generate a stronger east/southeast swell for later in the week - see next image.

It’s difficult to have confidence on the likely size and timing as some of the models have the responsible fetch gradually sliding into the swell shadow of New Zealand’s North Island, however a conservative outlook would maintain 2-3 foot sets showing around Thursday, holding through Friday and perhaps into next weekend - the last day of the waiting period is Saturday.

An optimistic outlook would add another foot or two to the top of the swell cycle. By Monday we should have a clearer picture of the size and timing of this swell.

Overall, there are no powerhouse swells in the waiting period but nor will it be marginal. In fact, there should be enough swell to run consecutive days, possibly from Saturday into next week.

Whether they finish in the smaller east swell will likely depend on whether the trough above New Zealand ramps up in intensity, offering a better Final's Day later in the week.