latest forecast
973hp maybe i'm a little over excited but come on, is this shit about to get real?
I'm reading the low at 986 Saturday am but I wouldn't get my hopes up for anything too extreme. Look at the following pm map. As has been discussed before the BOM tend to go over the top with their predictions and then tone them down as the event gets closer......the purpose presumably being to scare the shit out of the boaties and rock fishermen.
agrree with bb ... Australia day long weekend , huge baoting and fishing weekend .... surf meh .
blindboy wrote:As has been discussed before the BOM tend to go over the top with their predictions and then tone them down as the event gets closer......the purpose presumably being to scare the shit out of the boaties and rock fishermen.
Actually that's mostly a myth. The weather charts are computer generated (so BOM staff have no influence over their output), and whilst yes - they often overpredict at long range and then slowly tone down the forecast as the day draws nearer, sometimes the opposite happens.
That is, the models fail to pick up a significant weather event at long range, but then it slowly creeps into view, gradually upgrading a little more every day.
In this case, the models have had a Tasman low for quite some time (which is very good) but it'll continue to refine the features of the low as the weekend draws near.
DD05 - as for SE Qld, these systems are usually OK for the region but hardly epic (and absolutely not "the best swell event in years"). There'll be a large size loss across most locations due to the strong southerly component in the swell direction, and current model guidance suggests there'll be a fair amount of wind in the mix too. So, the southern points on the Goldy should be pretty good (our forecast currently has around 3ft for Sunday), but it'll be twice the size at exposed south facing beaches (unfortunately they'll be all but blown out).
https://www.swellnet.com/reports/australia/queensland/gold-coast/forecast
not to contradict what you say Ben . but the BOM 4 day charts aren't exactly cut and paste from the models now are they .... accessg - accessr or EC / GFS . there is some interpretation in there .
will be interesting to see if anything " BOMb's " off the coast this weekend .... and if not there is always this as DD05 stated .
" http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2014&MO=01&BASIN=SHE... "
southey wrote:not to contradict what you say Ben . but the BOM 4 day charts aren't exactly cut and paste from the models now are they .... accessg - accessr or EC / GFS . there is some interpretation in there .
Yeah, it's raw model output. Depends on what product you're looking at, as they have changed recently - I think the 7 day forecast products are still ECMWF but the 4 day product is ACCESS (which everything will soon be, if it's not already). They don't output any GFS data publicly as far as I know.
BTW, you don't really think that in this day and age they employ someone to manually redraw the isobars four times every day?
Even the various weather features (highs, lows, fronts, troughs etc) can be added in automatically if need be.
excuse my ignorance . but obviously they have a model itself or a program atleast that dumbs it down down to less lines and open up the thresh holds that makes it harder to pickup any mistakes .
the four day charts that DD05 linked to , the TV weather and WZ hom page charts are very general when in comparison to the direct model based charts with thickness levels , 12 hr Precip totals and etc etc ... also i'm sure at some stage they use GFS and JTWC in colaboration with EC when it comes to predicting cyclone paths . which was the second part of his question ?!
southey wrote:excuse my ignorance . but obviously they have a model itself or a program atleast that dumbs it down down to less lines and open up the thresh holds that makes it harder to pickup any mistakes
Yeah all models programs can do this (including ours). We can configure the hPa spacings at whatever we want - 1hPa, 2hPa, 4hPa etc. In the case of the BOM, they obviously choose a larger spacing between isobars for those charts (probably for aesthetic reasons).
southey wrote:also i'm sure at some stage they use GFS and JTWC in colaboration with EC when it comes to predicting cyclone paths . which was the second part of his question ?!
Now you're getting a little confused (and off topic from the question). The initial discussion was about weather maps, and the supposed representation (and exaggerated intensity) of low pressure systems.
The BOM use all weather models (ie GFS, ACCESS, EC, UKMET, NAVGEM, plus others) as a part of their tropical cyclone forecasting - of which manually drawn forecast track position are sometimes created. But this is not the same as a regional scale synoptic chart.
Also, you're confused things by bringing JTWC into the mix - they're a US military agency who provide advice (primarily for US military installations). They make some of their forecast information publicly available but other they do not run their own models - as they're part of the US Navy, they would advocate NAVGEM in the first instance.
So Ben , NOGAPS is not NAVY ( i know its a running joke that its terrible but i believe when they stopped a lot of access in aroudn 2000 to most of their stuff that they never bothered upgrading it ( PUBLICLY ) that is , and FNMOC does not operate Super Computer Numerical models ?? .... I know NOAA , and NWS provide most of the Sat images that the raw data is often fed into the Models .... FNMOC has a far longer history than NOAA .
anyway we are getting off topic . besides we would't be talking here if the US Military didn't invent the web ...... There are many things taht are never made public about some organisations for obvious reasons ..... Australia is a key player in alot of their investment .... Pine Gap and Exmouth included ....
NOGAPS is now known as NAVGEM, and it belongs to the US Navy. Yes, they do run their own supercomputers.
Damn. one must understand it's been a while between drinks. Like I remember when i was really young, one swell being large enough to break on the inside wall of the spit seaway, in my recollection it hasn't happened since. This year?? and considering i'm on the sunny coast and not that i have the balls to to ever surf it it but stories of 8-10 foot carties, (a wave that put's granites in the shade?) is this just mythology; did it ever happen, will it happen again and when?
Yeah a couple of mates, my brother and I surfed inside the seaway on the straddie side about 15 years ago, it was only a couple of feet but it was still pretty scary!!!
I remember seeing footage on the news of Munga Barry surfing overhead waves same spot in about 1995 on a crazy cyclone swell.
I don't think it has happened since then though.........can any others add to this??
Check out the video of cyclone violet.......about the 1 minute mark is inside the seaway.
http://www.coastwatch.com.au/SurfBeach/SurfingVideo-632/
Am I reading the latest BOM computer modelling wrong or is that a 966hp low in the Tasman? Is this unheard of for this time of year and what are the swell implications for south east Queensland? Also will that mean that the possible cyclone off Queensland next week be sending swell in an allready agitated sea state creating the best swell event in years? Sorry I can't wait for tomorrow's forecast, can any of the weather guy's elaborate, excited anyone?!!