Climate Change
It's right up there with saying that the sea has been rising an "EXTREMELY consistent 4 inches every 100 years over many thousands of years (check the readings in the Syney Harbour gauge )"
So over the last, say, 3000 years the sea level has risen about 6ft at a steady rate?
Comedy gold.
Thanks Craig . Very interesting . I was thinking also about the Super Volcanoes like Yellow Stone in the past . Do you think that recent volcanoes eg Iceland would register on our gauges ? I do believe ( actually know from your study as mentioned above ) you to be MUCH more informed and educated on these issues than I am . That is why you and your team are the best wave forecasters in the World . Congratulations !!! I would love you to be able to prove to me that my view that CO2 should not be demonised is false . Then I would be a strong advocate for acting Now and argue the need for the rapid use of Nuclear energy to save the world .Actually I would love more that you proved it should not be demonised as we could save so much money ,create more jobs especially manufacturing , keep warm in winter and cool in summer , save birds and grow much more food around the world for the starving . Plant growth is boosted tremendously by increasing CO2 levels which has been proved in Greenhouse experiments . I am naturally sceptical on most expert opinion which I think is very healthy . I will try and add a post why later today .
Gday Brutus, I believe the world is very old. Like an old cake with no icing. God being God was capable of icing that cake in 6 days and it was such a big effort even God was tired... so on the 7th day He rested.
Seeing as He made us such a nice garden with right and left point breaks etc.
We should not chop it all down...everyone should get planting trees again. They suck carbon, cool the air make oxygen and rain...too easy really...just put them back again....oh yes and for you other guys...you learn all that in primary school.
Brutus
The various planets are thought to have formed from the solar nebula, the disc-shaped cloud of gas and dust left over from the Sun's formation.[28] The currently accepted method by which the planets formed is accretion, in which the planets began as dust grains in orbit around the central protostar. Through direct contact and self-organization, these grains formed into clumps up to 200 m (660 ft) in diameter, which in turn collided to form larger bodies (planetesimals) of ~10 km (6.2 mi) in size. These gradually increased through further collisions, growing at the rate of centimetres per year over the course of the next few million years.[29]
What is the difference between an asteroid and a comet?
The main difference between asteroids and comets is their composition, as in, what they are made of. Asteroids are made up of metals and rocky material, while comets are made up of ice, dust and rocky material. Both asteroids and comets were formed early in the history of the solar system about 4.5 billion years ago. Asteroids formed much closer to the Sun, where it was too warm for ices to remain solid. Comets formed farther from the Sun where ices would not melt. Comets which approach the Sun lose material with each orbit because some of their ice melts and vaporizes to form a tail.
There are several million asteroids. They fall into three main types: carbonaceous asteroids, metallic asteroids, and mixed salicaceous-mineral-metallic asteroids. Many of the metallic asteroids are composed mainly of nickel and iron, but also contain sizeable quantities of important rare earth elements and precious metals including platinum and gold. A metallic asteroid just 25 meters across could contain as much as 30 tons of platinum valued around $1 billion. 16 Psyche is a staggering 226 kilometers (140 miles) wide and the most mineral rich asteroid so far detected. It is speculated that 16 Psyche could be worth about $10,000 quadrillion (or €8,240 quadrillion euros).
Sea level rise since the Last Glacial Maximum.
Global or eustatic sea level has fluctuated significantly over Earth's history. The main factors affecting sea level are the amount and volume of available water and the shape and volume of the ocean basins. The primary influences on water volume are the temperature of the seawater, which affects density, and the amounts of water retained in other reservoirs like rivers, aquifers, lakes, glaciers, polar ice caps and sea ice. Over geological timescales, changes in the shape of the oceanic basins and in land/sea distribution affect sea level. In addition to eustatic changes, local changes in sea level are caused by tectonic uplift and subsidence.
Over geologic time sea level has fluctuated by more than 300 metres, possibly more than 400 metres. The main reasons for sea level fluctuations in the last 15 million years are the Antarctic ice sheet and Antarctic post-glacial rebound during warm periods.
The current sea level is about 130 metres higher than the historical minimum. Historically low levels were reached during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), about 20,000 years ago. The last time the sea level was higher than today was during the Eemian, about 130,000 years ago.[2]
So I do a VERY basic maths equation with basic assumptions .
The last Ice Age (10000 years ago , a guess ) when sea levels were 130 meters below today . So 130 meters divided by 10000 . Which equals 1.3 mm per year which is 13 cm every 100 years which is around 5 inches every 100 years so I was wrong again to say it was 4 .
Faaaark!
God must be a wealthy mofo ;)
Forget all the money generated by elite evangelist pedophile tax evaders !
God is just waiting for further global pandemic induced recessions so he can save us by sending down a platinum quadrillionesque asteroid ;);)
What a fuckn generous bloke…
Oh… but most people whose minds don’t boggle actually left that indoctrinated Christian god shit behind them before they even started primary school ;)
And god is such a peculiar and lovely fellow that he even pissed the dinosaurs off with an asteroid just so to create historical artefacts that prove the ‘creation’ story to be a man made myth.
So happy ;) So clappy! Yayyyyyy ;)
There he is ...pet troll e um Jelly...Stick to the subject ...go plant some trees.
Hutchy correct, plants love CO2.
One issue though, you see the poles are warming at a greater rate than anywhere else and with this we see the polar vortex weakening which means it gets wobbly, disrupts the 'normal' storm track and climate across regions and throws out big variations.
IE strong, crippling cold outbreaks in areas that are not setup for them, like we saw in the US last winter and on the other side big heatwaves and baking temperatures in regions not setup for it.
Some places will get more rainfall, others will go colder but on the whole the Earth warms. Our food belts and areas setup for agriculture will be shifted as the climate patterns change, some placed will be unliveable disrupting whole populations and leading to climate refugees.
So yeah there'll likely be wars over water and food and more volatility as a whole. But yeah carbon is great!
Hutchy you were incorrect to say that sea level has been rising an "EXTREMELY consistent 4 inches every 100 years over many thousands of years".
Have a look at the Holocene Highstand.
This paper is interesting, with a key concept being the "non-linear" rise in sea level over the past 21,000 years since the last glacial maximum.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218430
Hutchy, I'm a bit concerned about these resource replenishing asteroids that you said are bombarding the earth. Wouldn't you expect mass extinctions from these events?
Also your claim that the Great Barrier Reef was in rude health was eye opening as well. It seems to go against everything I've read.
Asteroids replenishing the earths resources is great for the economy Arcadia.
If there's no one left on the planet there's no debt left either!
A quick comment on the above posts . Andy I will read the article and would not expect it to be 4-5 inches every year . Things hardly work out that way . The very long increasing in levels just make it seem impossible that predictions of 15-25 meters as said in the government groups report are correct . Just like Flim Flannery . Arcadia - I worry much more about us getting hit by an asteroid than Climate Change . Craig - as you said the climate change changes everything else . Always has and always will .
Now why an I suss on all experts . Firstly global warming . Over 20 years ago I thought the model that Craig posted WAS plausible . Then when temps plateaued in 98 and even went down I wondered why when previously told there was a direct link with CO2 which kept going up . When they changed the problem to Climate Change I then knew it was Bull Shit . When we had the rain that Flim Flam said we would never see again ( and snow ) and we built the Desal plant ( which once turned on you shouldn't turn off due to cost of having to change membranes ) I was laughing ( really should have been crying ) . When seeing the IPCC reports I cringe . Who would listen to anything any UN groups tell us . The current members of the UN Human Rights Commission include China and Cuba . Who would listen to them ? The Czar of the US Climate Group Mr John Kerry owns two houses , 6 cars , two boats and a fucken Jet Airplane . Who would listen to him about having to cut back on CO2 ? What about Obama buying his home at Martha's Vinyard next to the water ? Has a small get together for his 60th with the airport jammed with jets . No one wearing masks . I could go on and on . The rank hypocrisy .
The experts ( Church's ) ridiculed Galileo for saying the earth was round . Every expert group has been proved wrong over time . Medicine practised a 100 years ago looks archaic . I would bet $100k that in 20 years time our experts views on Covid will look stupid and will do more harm than good . Finance- the experts at the BOJ have been trying to get inflation up . Failed . The regulators at Standard an Poors ,Moody's and Fitch approved the first securitisations ( real-estate ) that had only A rated loans and gave them an A rating . The brokers the mixed A loans and B loans and the rating agencies still gave them an A . Brokers being brokers ended up mixing a small ammount of A's and B's with C's D's And E's and guess what ? The rating agencies still gave this crap an A . It then caused the GFC and guess what the Expert ( The Federal Reserve ) did ? It bailed out the fucken banks that did it ( did sacrifice Lehman's to show us mugs they they were tough ) . When they then did QE1 and it didn't work they did not try anything new they stupidly thought the reason it did not work was because we didn't do enough of it . So QE 2 , 3 etc . Quantitative Easing was such a good idea ( not ) all the other Reserve Banks followed suit . Rudd and his experts though it a good idea to give every Oz $900 to get spending up to save us from going into recession . Guess what , people paid off debt or saved it . Then pink bats and solar schemes which attracted shonks and ruined the reputation of good businesses in these sectors . The FBI using the Steele Report ( funded by the Clinton Foundation ) to get the Muller Report which took months to complete . The US has tried to influence more elections than anyone else . Russia ( Yeltsin ) , Iran , the rest of the middle east , nearly all of South America. The FBI secretly meeting Obama on a tarmac . The head leaking to the media and admitting it . Big tech and the media censoring everyone who they don't like . Imagine if it was Trumps son who gave his laptop to get repaired , forgot to pick it up and had all that sensitive data on it . See todays news on some of its contents . The hypocrites who don't wear a mask , put it on to take a photograph and then take it off again . Cuomo killing aged home residents and not getting investigated . Reminds me of here when we got private companies ( not the military ) to police detention leading to more than 600 deaths due to covid . We had a Royal Commission and no one could remember which expert made the decision . The CDC over reporting Florida's Covid cases to 29000 not 19000 ( todays news ) . I could keep writing for hours . Giving any government the power to take any of our freedoms is never returned but only the start of more restrictions . The Press Secretary of the US president reminding the Taliban to consider their role in the International community and to stop raping and pillaging .
So history has proven to me that experts are hardly ever proven right . So I am suss on nearly everything they say . I am very happy to be proven wrong ( rarely happens ) . I believe being suspect of what I hear is very healthy .
"The last Ice Age (10000 years ago , a guess ) when sea levels were 130 meters below today . So 130 meters divided by 10000 . Which equals 1.3 mm per year which is 13 cm every 100 years which is around 5 inches every 100 years so I was wrong again to say it was 4 ."
130 m divided by 10,000 years = 13 mm per year. Which is 1.3 metres every 100 years. Which is around 51 inches every 100 years.
Didn’t you say you used to work in finance hutch?
"I am very happy to be proven wrong ( rarely happens )"
What's an inch or 2 between friends? Hutchy gets my vote for the 2021 Fruitcake award in a tight finish from several other notable nominations, incl Blowboy, Bluey and Brute.
Hutchy, scepticism is healthy, as is the ability to adjust your beliefs to fresh data.
Good luck.
"So history has proven to me that experts are hardly ever proven right . So I am suss on nearly everything they say . I am very happy to be proven wrong ( rarely happens ) . I believe being suspect of what I hear is very healthy"
Being wrong is ok, even if it rarely happens.
"The experts ( Church's ) ridiculed Galileo for saying the earth was round"
Umm no. The only 'expertise' the church has ever had is 'hypochrisy', and other things I'd rather not mention.
And for the record Galileo wasn't ridiculed for saying the earth was round, it was because he was saying that the earth was revolving around the sun, aka the heliocentric theory. The narrow little minds of the church men believed the opposite and he was arrested for “vehement suspicion of heresy”. The church had only dogma on its side. Its "science" was purely observational - "Everyone can see that the Sun goes around the Earth". That’s not too far removed from the deniers who claim the planet can't be warming because there's snow on their front lawns.
Craig wrote:Supafreak wrote:@craig , a bit off subject but do you see electric cars being part of the solution ? I’m just trying to get my head around everyone driving electric cars and let’s say there’s a major accident on the freeway and cars are banked up for hours and eventually need recharging . How do you recharge thousands of cars in a traffic jam ? Might sound like a stupid scenario , it’s just something I’ve thought about . Hopefully electric cars are the future but some improvement on current technology is needed . Magnets maybe ?
Massively, and the thing is with electric cars is that once they're off, they're off so won't be losing power just sitting there in a traffic jam.
Also with no drive-trains/transmission you should see the amount of extra space they provide etc and lighter weight. Win win.
PS Great post Brutus.
I have a Hyundai Kona. Which i am very happy with but i would say that space is one of its downsides and it is quite heavy.
Thanks Bonza . I am shit at Maths that's why I am in finance . Good at picking winners though . I did check the numbers with a friend who was a Squadron Leader in the RAF specialising in navigation . I will check the numbers and have a go at him if he was wrong . I have given lots of other facts and opinions . Any other mistakes you can highlight ?
Thanks Westofthelake . You are correct and I am wrong again . I am regularly wrong and often make mistakes . I wish I was wrong on the subject of most experts . Would love to hear of any speciality that past experts have been proven wrong other than maths . There must be others . Just thought of another group of experts I have trust in - Swellnets surf predictions .
haha nahh mate your good. funny shit your last 2 comments. promise i'm not being mean. It's good your having a crack on here Hutch. I wish you well mate.
Sorry Bonza . You obviously did not do your own calculations . Lazy person , it was not a trap but you did fall in . I made a typo . 130 meters divided by 10000 is 1.3 mm not as I incorrectly wrote 13 mm. 1.3mm times 100 IS 13 cm . Please acknowledge your mistake.
DRex - A great example for you to make up your own mind and not believe EVERYTHING you read which you agree with . Do I still get my Fruitcake ?
?
All good Hutchy.
And like arcadia said "scepticism is healthy, as is the ability to adjust your beliefs to fresh data."
Sorry Bonza , forgot I needed to explain to you in a way that a 4 year old could understand .
130 meters DIVIDED by 10000 years IS 1.3mm per year . Get it so far ?
1.3mm every year for 100 years EQUALS 13cm . 13cm IS CLOSE , NOT EXACTLY , to 5 inches . Clear or ?
Blowin- stumbled on a previous post re Chernobyl . Saw a program a while ago and also on The Project ( my girls like it ) recently that the flora and fauna there has made a remarkable recovery . Concrete proof for me that the mans footprint on Earth will be quickly erased when we become extinct . The average lifespan for a species is 1 million years . Over 99% of species that have lived on the earth are extinct .
Westy, It was the Roman Catholic Church who used to deliberately frighten sailors with their flat earth lies and at the same time were sending their priests around the world collecting its treasures. The bible says the earth is round and people sailed the trade winds for thousands of years around it before the Vatican messed with everyone's heads. But, that's what you would expect when their leader meets the people inside a building designed like a serpents head.
Never mix the True Christian church with various world cults that are focused on money and power. There are some good local but naive people in your local catholic church but the headquarters is a an evil impostor.
Now, go plant 10 trees.
Best carbon sucking trees to plant...
Eucalyptus trees which most councils give you for free..absorb average 35KG of carbon a year....Oak trees are awesome and fruit trees like citrus and apple absorb heaps of carbon and give fruit too...
An acre of apple trees will absorb 10-20 tonnes of carbon per year (Cornell Uni England) and produce 15 tonnes of oxygen plus a heap of apples.... Ive planted heaps of tallowwoods, turpentine's, iron barks and citrus over many years in many locations and it feels good to watch them grow and they do it fast too. You can stick an Iron bark in the worst looking soil and it'll be 30 feet high before you know it. Morrison committed himself to a billion trees planted by 2030...I hope he keeps his promise because beside tech advances, we need to do the basic housework and put the friggin trees back. I see people cutting down the most beautiful trees and the reason...They put leaves in my gutter???...We need to get planting to offset the idiots and when the world takes it seriously and combines that with the new tech we will all do OK.
Craig - Bloomberg has just reported that La Nino looks to be forming again . Congratulation's - you were well ahead of them !
Optimist yes! Plant more trees .
I have apples and gums in back yard love em! There are trees for life groups in most council areas I think that have regular voluntary tree planting days . I’ve done a couple they felt good to do. Meet new people breathe fresh air and after the plant share cuppa and bikkies.
Optimist - my dearly departed grandmother had a large apricot tree in her back garden . The best I have EVER tasted . I miss her and the apricots very much .
La Nino...?
Don’t normally watch QandA but did so last night. Matt Canavan was on arguing against climate action.
The Drum last night a scientist and farmer from western NSW said of Barnyard Joyce that the man thinks he represents farmers just because he wears an akubra when we all know that he wears a miners hardhat.
Plant all the trees you want but if you want any real action on climate, it’s simple, just vote these farken carnts out at the next election.
... if you remove the dodgy “accounting” method used by the LNP govts used to falsely claim our emissions have fallen our emissions have actually increased by 7% since Labor’s carbon price was removed by Abbott.
Barnaby is putting a price on his own head in some rural areas. He won't be welcomed such as Matt Canavan. Its only going to get worse with negligent and dire decisions being implicated. Farmers will turn.
rural communities will turn
Barnaby will be nowhere to be seen
GuySmiley wrote:Plant all the trees you want but if you want any real action on climate, it’s simple, just vote these farken carnts out at the next election.
Wasn't the last election the climate change election?
Let's hope they havent leant from their mistakes and losing the unlossable election and go hard on the issue again, doubt they will though, expecting it will be more like Liberal Lite next time.
Wait till shit truly hits the fan. it hasn't even started. But we are getting closer.
I’d say Fatboy will play his role again in the next election , I wonder what the fear and smear campaign will focus on this time .
Indo it really amazes me that people like you are so keen for the current setup to go on indefinitely.
No conscience for the future?
Or just going for the wind-up.
Of course he will. he serves interested and invested parties. He is untouchable until he is.
Barnaby and Canavan will be okay. There's plenty up here who would vote for a pumpkin if it had a LNP sticker on it
Joyce has serious questions to face / answer at a future federal ICAC as does many former National Party parliamentary members and office holders who currently work or have worked for mining.
Ask yourself, as did many at the time, why did then Senator Joyce buy a large barren track of far western NSW farming land for peanuts only to sell it a year later for a massive profit a year later to a mining company headed up by a former National Party leader!
Well I’ll be fracked
"There's plenty up here who would vote for a pumpkin if it had a LNP sticker on it"
The pumpkin would be better. At least the pumpkin wouldn't piss away $675,000 in three weeks as a drought envoy, sending in his report via three text messages.
And when journalists and the opposition tried to find out what was in the text messages, the govt refused to release them.
Fair Dinkum, we are being governed by the biggest pack of crooked cunts the country has ever seen. Anyone still voting for the LNP is either A) not paying attention or B) a fucking moron.
A tad harsh on info there VicLocal hehehe
AndyM wrote:Indo it really amazes me that people like you are so keen for the current setup to go on indefinitely.
No conscience for the future?
Or just going for the wind-up.
Im not sure what you mean by current set up?
The reality is last election Labor went pretty hard on the issue and it did them no favours it wasn't the only reason they lost the election but it was up there as one of the factors, i think the majority of Australians take a pretty moderate middle of the road view on the issue, they accept climate change, but also understand how insignificant Australians emissions are on a world scale, hence want a balanced moderate approach and not a radical reckless one, end of the day the most important thing for voters is the economy.
As i mentioned i doubt Labor will be so silly to go hard on the issue again, they will take a more moderate approach, we already saw this not long after the election when Albo made Labor's views clearer on Adani and basically mirrored LNP.
BTW. You will see the same thing in regards to things like negative gearing reforms etc, Labor wont push these things either, it will give them the best chance possible of being elected. (just googled the topic, seems already been done https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-dumps-negative-gearing-bac... )
Personally i think Scomo should just make a zero emissions target for 2050 even if its not possible with today tech, just spin it as needed it will more than likely be hit as advances in technology etc will be the major factors in getting there and it's not like he is going to around to take any blame if they they aren't met.
I guess the problem is the opposition will attack them on it and no matter how they plan to do it will attack them on it saying its not possible that way, but Labor will have to make the promise for zero emissions by 2050 to have some differentiation from LNP so they will have that issue too, and if they go too hard on how its going to be done again and people feel its going to negatively affect them or the economy it will come back to bite them like it did with Shorten.
In regard to "conscience for the future" reality is the future is out of our hands, it's the major players like China that will be the deciding factor on real progress along with technology advances etc, but I personally don't have any fear about the issue for myself or kids etc, but i don't take a the sky is falling view, i think we are on the right track and that humans will get by and adapt where needed if needed..
GuySmiley wrote:A tad harsh on info there VicLocal hehehe
Technically ive never directly voted for LNP, but i will this coming election.
I put One nation first last time just because al jazeera* went after her and tried messing with our politics, and i knew my vote was ongoing to LNP, but im not giving my vote to an Anti vaxer, only time ive voted for One nation too.
Any tradie not voting for LNP is crazy, Labor dont give a shit about you these days, but look at LNP, it's the sector that LNP were first to support through Covid and the building industry is booming, to the point where its become a negative as demand has created material shortages (Yes yes few other factors too this too global issue)
* Nice work Israel the other month and did it with class allowing people 10 minutes to get out of the building.
the economy and climate change impacts are inextricably linked. the more we sit on our hands the more it will cost us. Eye watering taxpaying dollars are being spent on bushfire recovery as we speak. 2 years on. Flood recovery hasn't even started
It is the western world that has lead the industrial revolution and left us with a legacy of a dangerously warming planet. It is the western world that has an obligation to lead efforts to mitigate it. using china and india as a proxy for inaction is pathetic and defeatist and the corporate world now recognises it and is acting on it. The Lib/Lab government needs to get on board or just get the fuck out of the way so the corporates can get the job done that the australian government clearly cant.
bonza wrote:the economy and climate change impacts are inextricably linked. the more we sit on our hands the more it will cost us. Eye watering taxpaying dollars are being spent on bushfire recovery as we speak. 2 years on. Flood recovery hasn't even started
It is the western world that has lead the industrial revolution and left us with a legacy of a dangerously warming planet. It is the western world that has an obligation to lead efforts to mitigate it. using china and india as a proxy for inaction is pathetic and defeatist and the corporate world now recognises it and is acting on it. The Lib/Lab government needs to get on board or just get the fuck out of the way so the corporates can get the job done that the australian government clearly cant.
Australia could reduce its emissions to zero and it would make no difference to the climate so its BS to suggest whatever we do will be recouped by preventing floods or bush fires etc
Thats just not reailty.
The world could also reduce it's emissions to zero and there would still be fires, floods etc always has always will be. (yes i know slightly worse perhaps)
BTW. Per captia Australia leads the world in roof top solar installations and per captia our take up of renewables is up there with the fastest take up in the world, so again its BS to suggest LNP or Labor are in the way
All these things will happen anyway and the government be it LNP or Labor spend huge money in all kinds of different areas in regard to climate change.
People do need to stop thinking it's the government duty though to save them or something, if people really feel strongly, go put solar on, switch to a green energy provider, go buy an electric car, go vegan, change to an ethical super provider or bank etc...people are the drivers of change the more people that make change the faster the market changes.
Or buy shares in Adani which is now the worlds biggest provider of solar energy :P
yeah mate well you stumped me. not sure how you came to that summation from my comment. have a good weekend.
By “current set up” Indo, I mean government/s that will continue to allow and encourage wholesale land clearing, extinction of species, high levels of population growth, ever-increasing levels of consumption etc etc.
Even if you take global warming out of the equation, I see voting for the Libs as unconscionable with Labor not far behind.
As a country we’ve clearly got no thought for the future, just whack up some more houses, import some more people, dig up some more dirt and she’ll be right.
Absolutely mindless.
.