COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

gsco I think you are too pessimistic about science. The work of the IPCC demonstrates just how effective it can be when all the data is included and those with the highest level.of experience and competence work together to a common goal. It is really inspiring that their predictions, from the very first report, have been so accurate that in virtually every case the measured climatic variables fall within the error bars. Then we have the announcement in the last few days that immunologists have developed the first malaria vaccine. Yes there is a lot of bad science but by the very nature of the process, it is found out in the end. I really don't understand the sort of generalised paranoia that leads so many into baby/bathwater territory. If the decline in the ability to distinguish valid science from propaganda continues we are headed towards an era of irrationality. The absolute raving fucking nonsense that passes for discussion here is a good forewarning of that. We are not really very far from having someone as clueless and passionate as the monkeys here actually dictating health policy. The US have already been there and are struggling to prevent a return. Whatever problems science may be experiencing, it is our only defence against superstition and irrationality. Stick with it.

so much irony...

so little time...

Roadkill wrote:

Just had an update on the next 6 weeks in nsw as we open up. I am now the police....I have to check all persons entering our premises. If we get caught twice with unvaccinated pax we get shut down for 6 weeks and heavy fines. Considering I bill medicare, and those that have been vaccinated are recorded against their medicare number...I think we will have some upset people. Should be an interesting time.

I think you will be more bouncer than policemen roadkill , definitely going to be some upset people . I hope businesses don’t employ young vulnerable staff to police patrons entering establishments, it could get a bit violent, hope it doesn’t but people are already pissed off enough .

"I’d be the last person to claim there aren’t dumb people out there in America, but at least the audiences of channels like Fox and OAN know that content has been designed for them. The people gobbling down these pieces by Bloomberg and the Times that have the journalistic equivalent of child-proof caps on every paragraph that even parenthetically mentions COVID really believe that content has been dumbed down for some other person. They think it’s someone else who can’t handle news that vaccines work and that there also might be a pill that treats the disease, without freaking out or coming to politically unsafe conclusions. So they put up with being talked to like children — demand it, even. Which is nuts. Right? It is nuts, isn’t it?"

geez I could've wrote that myself... if it was void of, capitals, punctuation and good writing skills generally...

I think I know who he is referring to at the end too...

specifically

Brutus - your Trump derangement syndrome is flaring today and detracted from a vey good post you wrote at 11.15am .

All the shit you rightly point out started well before Trump was even thought of as a politician . You are giving him undeserved credit .

Also Hunter being innocent until guilty is pretty funny ( he was always qualified for the board position and it had nothing to do with his dad as the laptop that wasn't his said ) . Just like your view that China and Fauci are innocent of helping create covid . As you wrote - " Which is nuts. Right? It is nuts, isn’t it? "

Hutchy, just to clear up an off line discussion we are having could you post a photo of yourself and clearly label your arse and your elbow? Thanks for that.

BB and bonza, I totally agree with your responses. They're possibly partly motivated by my haphazard concluding comment:

gsco wrote:

...and science are now just chaotic free-for-alls with absolutely no information content or basis in fact or importance at all

That comment wasn't aimed at actual valid science. What I'm referring to is (i) the contemporary academic publishing numbers-game culture and (ii) the current abuse of "science" and "scientific research" for commercial, political and media interests, in particular its crowding out, obscuring and smothering of actual valid scientific discovery.

BB- you comment did make me smile . A tech dinosaur so can't post a photo even if I wanted to .

I will try and paint a quick picture .

Bum is slightly bigger than normal ( I think ) and came in very handy on the footy field in marking contests . It has been used way too much due to covid . Nothing special about my elbows and never used them on the footy field ( used my shoulders and hips a lot ) .

186 cm tall and 90kg . Full head of Grey hair ( have two teenage daughters ) . No facial scars and no jewelry as you know . 62 years of age but low mileage . Favourite food is Italian .

Anything else you would like to know .

Not interested in what you look like thanks .

Cheers gsco. yup that statement stuck out.
and i agree the scientific institutions need to do better on (i) - starting with rewarding non-sig findings.
re (ii) - its sad, but a reality that there will always be a cohort who will suppress or misuse science for nefarious interests. hopefully trustworthy media can continue to survive and even thrive going forward to call it out.
Im def half glass full on it.

@groundswell, this health system thread:

groundswell wrote:

gsco wrote:

And at the risk of repeating myself, this is all precisely just the America/US media model, and more generally the US media/government/corporate/science model. Australia needs to detach itself from the US model across all facets of society, and move in different direction
.

I thnik we should legalize weed for cancer patients etc but thats the only thing i believe the US does better than us. The gun laws in USA are ridiculous.

gs found it for you groundy

Was in the workshop plugging Craigs new 7'6'' Long Twin
Fusion plugs 8 inch from the Tail....very nice

Thanks gsco and Udo

Looks like Greater Sydney isn't allowed to travel to regional areas for holidays or day trips for the time being. Stoked , a slight reprieve but I don't think that will stop too many. There are plenty of loop holes still and reasons people will be able to travel. Not sure how they are going to police it .

tubeshooter wrote:

Looks like Greater Sydney isn't allowed to travel to regional areas for holidays or day trips for the time being. Stoked , a slight reprieve but I don't think that will stop too many. There are plenty of loop holes still and reasons people will be able to travel. Not sure how they are going to police it .

Superspeaders gonna superspread.

What’s this about Craig and a mini mal long twin…..? Mate you may as well be getting into disco. That surfboard Titanic trend has sailed….

Gumtree will be absolutely littered with those pieces of shit in 12 months.

tubeshooter wrote:

Looks like Greater Sydney isn't allowed to travel to regional areas for holidays or day trips for the time being. Stoked , a slight reprieve but I don't think that will stop too many. There are plenty of loop holes still and reasons people will be able to travel. Not sure how they are going to police it .

Open up, but stay in your lane. People just need to accept the new freedoms, treat them with respect and all should be good. Sadly, the dumb will still want more.

Guess he is only human.

"Premier Daniel Andrews fined $400 for failing to wear face mask on two occasions"
https://www.9news.com.au/national/victoria-police-reviewing-why-premier-...

t

The coppers should have pinned that cunt to the ground with extreme vigour whilst kneeing him in the back of the neck and firehosing pepper spray into his face.

The piece of shit has singlehandedly overseen the most draconian human oppression in Australian history. That cunt honestly needs castration when he is caught dodging his own dictatorial decree.

Fucker has cheered on the Fascist pig cunts of the Victorian police force since day one.

Feel steel you wok eyed fascist fucker!

That's an interesting point of view. Not.

With Australia ordering 300,000 courses of Merck new medicine lets hope its a bit more effective than remdesivir . Looks like the knives might already be out though and blowin’s article by mat tabbi was interesting. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/merck-drug-l...

"

The coppers should have pinned that cunt to the ground with extreme vigour whilst kneeing him in the back of the neck and firehosing pepper spray into his face.

The piece of shit has singlehandedly overseen the most draconian human oppression in Australian history. That cunt honestly needs castration when he is caught dodging his own dictatorial decree.

Fucker has cheered on the Fascist pig cunts of the Victorian police force since day one.

Feel steel you wok eyed fascist fucker!"
Blowin
You sound like a deranged Rik from the Young Ones.

C'Bomb defusing post.

Bill Collins to Alex DeLarge in 30 mins. Bravo

Blowin’s in full wolverine mode tonight. Lol.

Well into the second six pack!

That's a tough deal to share Stu...
tbb is also a twin and is often reminded by other twin of Blue colour & heart on the line.
From Twins to other Twins > Best Wishes Good Luck Stu...

Back over to the UK as you mentioned 200,000 kidz / wk infected with Covid
Over the last 6 weeks about 500/wk need Emergency - ICU > 1 child / wk dies from Covid.

Geert has shared a very insightful passage on this topic...

25th Sept - Geert Vanden Bossche " We have seen Younger age groups having almost no problem whatsoever when the Pandemic started, now we see increasingly these younger age groups get the disease. For me, this is clearly due to the high infectious pressure, so how can we reduce it. Well first of all, again, we have to stop this Mass Vaccination..."The Worst Thing Ever! ...The Worst Thing Ever! That we do...is to vaccinate younger age groups. As I tried to explain...This is the Buffer! The younger age groups...you bring them in, for example...the non vaccinated, you're gonna see a diminishment in infectious pressure, they are the Vacuum Cleaners and even if they get the disease. Most of them resist relatively well to severe disease because of their younger age, because of their still fairly high rate of innate antibodies.

If we start vaccinating these people, they lose this potential. When people get vaccinated they're gonna breed more infectious strains and thru immune selection pressure, there is no longer this elimination. We lose completely this Buffer...
When people get the disease they build long lived immunity, so this is really our hope for Herd Immunity.
I mean no one talks anymore about Herd Immunity!
What is the objective still, of the Mass Vax campaign?
Can anybody tell me?
I mean, if there is no objective, then the results are no Strategy of course and there is no Strategy there is only Tactics...right! There is like, ah! you know, everybody is doing something but there is no common objective and every country is doing there own thing. So this is really a disaster because the only way to solve this still, is we don't change Virology, we don't change Immunology...still the interplay between the Virus and the Immune System...It's Still Herd Immunity, so where are we gonna get Herd Immunity from...Certainly Not! Certainly Not! From the Vaccination and even less when we do Mass Vax.
If we could reduce this infectious pressure, we could say to our kids to go out and do your thing, because this was like at the beginning of the Pandemic, when we had a much lower intrinsic infectiousness and nothing much was happening with these age groups.

In all these Countries where we have this High Vaccination rate, that is where we have the high infection rates, right ..I mean, what else, I mean...this is a complete no brainer! This is just simply common sense!
But if we continue with the Mass Vax, nature will win, we will end this with Herd Immunity but we will pay a huge price."

Geert wished to compare Vaxed Mutant Strains but ...you guessed it!
"If you're Vaxed ...We don't do this Anymore!"
"We don't do this sequencing anymore!"
"We closed this Chapter!" re: Vax Cases / Death counts & Autopsies etc etc..All wiped & all off limits!

adam12 wrote:

"

The coppers should have pinned that cunt to the ground with extreme vigour whilst kneeing him in the back of the neck and firehosing pepper spray into his face.

The piece of shit has singlehandedly overseen the most draconian human oppression in Australian history. That cunt honestly needs castration when he is caught dodging his own dictatorial decree.

Fucker has cheered on the Fascist pig cunts of the Victorian police force since day one.

Feel steel you wok eyed fascist fucker!"
Blowin
You sound like a deranged Rik from the Young Ones.

Dictator Dan is nothing but Rik on steroids. A filthy useless University radge who thinks that their ill conceived ideology should be forced upon everyone….by force if necessary! Rik was the ultimate Fake Left authoritarian clown. Did you even understand the subtleties of Young Ones? What a waste of comedy.

That wok eyed cunt is a humourless version of Rik every single day of the week.

Yet another C'Bomb defused.

Can you knock that off?

Humanity 300 000 years.
Imagine if we wouldve had to combat the COVID pandemic without the needle?
Extinction would've been eminent!
I pledge my allegiance to the ass-tra pfizz derna states of da merica.
In drugs do i trust.

I have to get a 3rd shot in the months ahead, Either Moderna or Pfizer but not a 3rd dose of AZ. I’m more than happy to comply.

stunet wrote:

Yet another C'Bomb defused.

Can you knock that off?

Unless you guys in admin can help out?!

Happy for expression of views, but the bombs aren't necessary.
An old rough and tumble gent from my upbringing used to say "people use swearwords because they aren't smart enough to think of anything else".
Express your point of view, but no need for the vulgarities.
I have two daughters who surf. Age 10 and 11. Trying to get them onto Swellnet so they can learn forecasting etc, but dont need them reading this kind of language.

Sorry Stu, didn't write it but reposted without thinking. Sorry about that.

troppo dichotomy wrote:

Humanity 300 000 years.
Imagine if we wouldve had to combat the COVID pandemic without the needle?
Extinction would've been eminent!
I pledge my allegiance to the ass-tra pfizz derna states of da merica.
In drugs do i trust.

Gidday legend.
I read recently that more lives were lost in the spanish flu than in all the world wars together.
We are living in the greatest pandemic since the spanish flu, so to not use the drugs to our FULL advantage is pure crazy to me.
Lets hope we are all around to enjoy the free surfing world post covid-19!

Roadkill hope all goes well for you.I truly am perplexed as to which jab would be the best one to take?and why is AZ getting the ass??

Troppo g'day m8,after growing up in OZ i spent a bunch of time in the U.S. where certain words have different meanings.da C bomb is taboo over there unless a girl uses it against another girl in a state of rage.men do not use it.period,full stop,exclamation point.
Spending time over there made me appreciate Aussie slang and realize them seppos are a bunch of uptight cants!

A likely new treatment for Covid-19 was made possible by government-funded innovation https://www.statnews.com/2021/10/05/government-funding-backed-molnupirav...

Taxpayers are funding the research for pharmaceutical company profits.If the pharmaceutical companies really cared about the well being of humanity in the pandemic they should release their patents and allow the poor 3rd world countries manufacture and distribute the medicines asap.

troppo dichotomy wrote:

Roadkill hope all goes well for you.I truly am perplexed as to which jab would be the best one to take?and why is AZ getting the ass??

Troppo g'day m8,after growing up in OZ i spent a bunch of time in the U.S. where certain words have different meanings.da C bomb is taboo over there unless a girl uses it against another girl in a state of rage.men do not use it.period,full stop,exclamation point.
Spending time over there made me appreciate Aussie slang and realize them seppos are a bunch of uptight cants!

For anyone immunocompromised they latest advice is to mix AZ with either Moderna of Pfizer. AZ is one type of vaccine and Moderna and Pfizer are another. Similar but different. AZ still seems to offer the best protection out of all 3.

Australia will allow 2000 overseas nurses and doctors to enter the country for work under a plan being finalised by the Commonwealth and states to ease a healthcare staffing crisis. https://www.smh.com.au/national/plan-to-bring-thousands-of-nurses-and-do...

Supafreak wrote:

Australia will allow 2000 overseas nurses and doctors to enter the country for work under a plan being finalised by the Commonwealth and states to ease a healthcare staffing crisis. https://www.smh.com.au/national/plan-to-bring-thousands-of-nurses-and-do...

"Figures provided by the Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation show that skilled migrants make up 21 per cent of all newly registered nurses. In Victoria, overseas-trained doctors make up 23 per cent of total doctors and 30 per cent of doctors in regional areas."

Makes my blood boil.

This is symptomatic of the utter failure of governments at all levels to train and recruit nurses (and doctors) from Australia...a problem decades in the making. But hey that's all right, we can just flog the f@#k out of the nurses who remain.

So very nearly resigned last night in fact...just hanging on(by the skin of my teeth) to support my colleagues. We are seen as totally expendable by those in power.

...Oh and my hospital, full of unvaccinated COVID patients

Best wishes to you and your colleagues SG . You guys are the heroes of this shitfight.
Schools reopening one month earlier after a stroke of the pen from the new guy in NSW after the principals and admin spent weeks getting ready for a transition back to classes a month latter.

San Guine my daughter is in charge of triage at a large Sydney hospital and has been working her arse of for months and knows that as of next week things will get worse than ever as the state opens up and the risk of infection soars. They stopped leave at her hospital but I advised her to suggest that it was either that or resignation if it got close to her breaking point. She is still coping but.....

Iceland has cancelled Moderna vaccine. Deemed UNSAFE.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates a global shortage of 18 million health workers by 2030, mostly in low- and lower-middle-income countries, with nurses making up about half of this gap. https://www.clintonhealthaccess.org/there-is-a-global-shortage-of-nurses...

Michael Adam wrote:

Iceland has cancelled Moderna vaccine. Deemed UNSAFE.

Denmark, Norway, Iceland and Bulgaria previously cancelled AZ also.

Iceland halted Moderna over heart inflammation risks. Finland has joined Sweden, Denmark and Norway in either banning or discouraging young adults or teens from getting the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, because of the increased risk of myocarditis — heart inflammation.

To say that they declared any of the vaccines unsafe is a gross exaggeration. If they, as those nations do, have a plentiful supply of a wide variety of vaccines then they can fine tune their use to reduce the risk of side effects as close to zero as possible. In the absence of that wide choice and in an environment in which infections are about to rapidly increase, you should take what is available, both for your own sake, that of the community and that of the health workers struggling to cope.

This reminds me of my coke-snorting anti-vaxxer mate.

overthefalls wrote:

This reminds me of my coke-snorting anti-vaxxer mate.
https://youtu.be/HBV7Y2sbGYw

Luke is always getting it right on point.
Succinct and 100% correct.

My sister travelled the world taking whatever acid she could get her hands on, from Goa to South Africa to Eastern Europe.

And of course there was no way she was putting any vaccinations in her or her kid's bodies.
I mean, after all, you can't be too careful.

“To say that they declared any of the vaccines unsafe is a gross exaggeration.”

They literally withdrew their availability due to safety concerns.

Yep, to reduce the tiny risk as close to zero as possible as clearly explained above.