COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Yeah I watched it YS.

Where do you start to try to make sense of North America? I can't, it's a broken country, been like that for decades leading up to Trump and yet the vast majority of North Americans I have spoke to in the last 4 years are totally oblivious to it all.

was a tough watch, so much crazy & so much division

said it before and i'll say it again, facebook is pure evil and responsible for a lot of this shit, imo

You can poke sticks at 'conspiracy theorists' and rationale our own behavior's / views all day long. At least the surf has been good blah blah.. It takes effort and courage to look over the edge outside of your bubble. You guys getting angry about Karen. Who the hell is Karen. The fact you are talking about Karen, should be proof that you are overly caught up in what the media is telling you, become an observer to what you are being told by the media and then the Karen's of the world and Covid will become clear that its all a distraction, which is feeding your perception and invoking an emotional reaction, which keeps you tired and no energy or emotional courage to get over that edge.

Fuck me, if you really want to get pissed off, why isnt anyone on here getting stuck into George Pell and his PEDO mates. What happened to that...? What about the largest pedo ring ever to be caught in AUS last month. What about the Epstein circle... Where's that in the media, what about in your minds...?? Nup just get all edgy of fkn Karen and COVID with 120 deaths in AUS or some ridiculous insignificant mortality rate... We need to face it, we're getting played.

"It takes effort and courage to look over the edge outside of your bubble."

Effort and courage? Fuck me...

Every single conspiracy theorist is babbling about the same damn thing. You're all clones of one another! You think you've broken the shackles that bind but you're too daft to realise you jumped straight into another set.

Effort and courage....FFS.

@simba..those guys are pretty good

good call stunet & yorkesurfer ...US - At War with itself.
March: World recalls Pollution / murders were down
Mass shootings, murders, DV, child abuse-killings & virus are escalating.
Sadly worldwide, black people are being blamed by incompetent selfish leaders.
All deafened by our Leaders boasting greatness...now the root of all evil...Save us!

2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_State...
2020
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_State...
NYC Police Chief "It's quite obvious 'a lot' of people are walking around with guns!"
"4th of July was one of the most violent weekends in recent history."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/america-spike-gun-violence/2020/...

PS: Asian Pirates raids double from last year...to June 2019 (25) > 2020 -(51)
No! Not restricted to Asia...(Govts / Pirates are seizing Medi Cargo.)

tbb earlier cited the Putin /Trump Drug Exchange program for High Flyers.

The Pirates are likely working for Govts ( Medi-Raid or Nuke Waste Piracy) Choose!
https://www.marinelink.com/news/asian-piracy-incidents-double-h-480389
https://www.marinelink.com/news/crew-kidnappings-soar-west-africa-480204
https://www.marinelink.com/news/crew-kidnapped-tanker-gulf-guinea-480313
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8186041/An-act-modern-day-pirac...

"You think you've broken the shackles that bind but you're too daft to realise you jumped straight into another set."

Sell that on shirts around Byron Bay, we can only hope it'll sink in.

Shortenism, let's face it, conspiracy theorist, aren't exactly intellectuals. They're not in positions of power, or leading corporations etc. Class discrimination aside. At most maybe they run a refrigeration business out in Ballarat (started by their old man).

Our government can barely string together a feasible contact tracing app, let along be part of a global charade to do with this virus.

The fallacy of conspiracy theorists is that they believe there exists this 'powerful elite', skilled and smart enough to orchestrate schemes of such complexity. When the truth is, there simply isn't. We're all a rabble of humans who ultimately look out for our selves and our families, and sometimes, our communities.

We're so out of control it's not funny. Human communication is so complex, and the ability to communicate such strict requirements to teams globally or even nationally, as would be required to maintain a solid conspiracy such as Covid being fake, would be best left to AI. We're corrupted by ego, self interest and our own emotions.

Think masks are part of a bigger plan? No, they're a knee jerk reation showing we really don't have any form of control. Firstly they were not necessary, then they were recommended, now they're needed? Would love to see the 'highly confidential' feasibility report suggesting this 'action plan' last year. How could you sell this idea to an over controlling Government - hah!

Conspriacy theorists deserve the littlest level of respect possible - if anything at all. They do provide a good level of humour though - we all need something to laugh at every now and then.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbDrUi4WAAEUCXT?format=jpg&name=900x900

"Where do you start to try to make sense of North America?"

For me most of the issues go back to slavery and the refusal of large areas of the south to let go of the violent control of the black population during the Jim Crow period. This was supported by racist elements in both major parties, not to mention the FBI and its infamous director J. Edgar Hoover. He intimidated and blackmailed every President from Herbert Hoover to Richard Nixon and used this influence to prevent progress on integration and voting rights as well as to block investigations into the Mafia. This perpetuated racial division and allowed organised crime to achieve a degree of influence it has never fully relinquished. The social division created by his policies, and those of the Presidents who followed them, has never come close to being healed and shows no sign of getting there anytime soon. The end result has been a society ready to fracture under levels of stress that would be easily managed in other nations. In this context the present situation is uniquely dangerous. The unprecedented combination of a narcissistic, incompetent President, a pandemic, an economic downturn and an election almost certain to produce a fiercely contested result, increasingly looks like a recipe for a wave of social upheaval unlike anything that has come before.

Blowfly, I reckon their right to bear arms, heavily armed population and militarized police also add another layer to the "levels of stress easily managed in other nations''.

Was reading an article a month or so ago (maybe in the Conversation?) that provided a more nuanced version of America's gun problems. The modern belief is that it's always been an issue, that it stems from America's frontier legacy, the Wild West etc., yet up until the sixties Australia and the US had a similar number of guns per capita despite the Second Amendment.

After the sixties, however, the effect of lobbying by the NRA, who manufactured or embellished many myths about guns and American history, came into effect and it's now spiralling into a self-stoking cycle - "we need guns to protect ourselves from guns".

My non scholarly view is it starts and ends in their constitution that encourages difference between states on all matters that impacts the daily lives of citizens. Everything from education, health care, welfare, policing, taxation, civil rights until the 1960s, the list is endless. The nation’s name from day one - the United States of America was and remains more hope than fact. The US’ gun laws are often quoted as a right for citizens to defend themselves against the government FFS. This loose constitutional arrangement worked imperfectly when politicians on both sides were principled and worked for the benefit of the country. So when did it go wrong? Nixon? Trump is right the political system in the US is a swamp but he’s not draining it just making it deeper and murkier.

The US is broken and there’s not fixing it. I fear the best of western democracy and prosperity is now behind us.

When Joe public can walk the streets of his/her local community LEGALLY carrying a loaded AK-47 assault rifle, something, somewhere has gone horribly wrong.....

man if I had a gun i'd shoot ignorant people who use tautologies to make their one dimensional points.

I'd shoot them in the feet. For some reason being shot in the foot, metaphorically, is considered getting off lightly. Not so. While you may not bleed out necessarily, there are 26 bones in the human foot and the chances of coming out the other side with a barely a limp are low. I'd expect ongoing issues for the rest of days. The IRA were/are wrong.

Worth consideration.

Gimme the feet over a kneecapping any day. 

You're entitled to your opinion Stu. But if I've distracted someone, anyone, from The Rona, for even five seconds I've made a very small contribution to society. And if, in your "lived experience" you ever hear or read of someone, somewhere getting something "for free" as opposed to just fucken free - then that should get the toes tingling...

Its a damn shame that grammar nazis in the USA are not commensurately well armed.

Is there a doctor in the house?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/stella-immanuel-trumps-new-covid-doctor-be...

Ha ha, i saw that reported on Politico too facto. Meanwhile NSW Police demonstrate that they are alert to their political masters sensitivities. From Crikey Worm

"ARRESTS AT SYDNEY'S BLM PROTEST

According to NITV, NSW Police yesterday arrested six Black Lives Matter protesters in Sydney, including Indigenous activist Vanessa Turnbull-Roberts and event coordinator Paddy Gibson who both received $1000 fines.

While organisers reportedly both observed 1.5 metre social distancing requirements and complied with move-on orders, police easily outnumbered protesters and arrested Gibson before the protest event began.

As The Guardian reports, the family of David Dungay Jr then delivered a nearly 100,000-strong petition to NSW parliament calling for the NSW Director of Public Prosecutions and SafeWork NSW to investigate criminal charges, for the guards involved in his death to be stood down, and the complete implementation of all 339 recommendations of the Royal Commission into Aboriginal Deaths in Custody.

PS: Footage released by Nine reporter Andrew Rickert yesterday appears to show dozens of anti-CCP protesters — apparently from the “New Federal State of China”, a separatist group backed by Steve Bannon — marching outside Sydney’s Chinese consulate. Protesters also appeared masked and social distanced, but no arrests or fines have been reported."

Meanwhile, back to Covid... Vic, you dismiss the medical opinion of the NSW top cop (because it 'attacks' BLM protestors), while accepting the medical advice of Victoria's top pandemic expert (because it suits your ideology).
Mate if that doesn't sum up the stupidity of socialists nothing does.

D-Rex, you're a complete idiot. If you want a relevant opinion on a medical matter, you go to a medical expert not a fucking cop.
And I will give you another piece of free advice, when you want relevant opinion on policing matters, you don't go to a fucking pandemics expert.
What the fuck is it with conservatives' lack of common sense?

I know a guy who has gone next level conspiracy theorist and actually believes the Earth is flat, he has an answer for everything and no amount of debating will ever change his mind. Funny how the percentage of the population who identify as conspiracy wankers is about the same as those with severe mental illness, they think the masses are brainwashed plebs when in actual fact it is they who refuse to see the light. Unfortunately there is no law against ignorance.

Ha. Man your post is poorly thought out D rex. For a start, you somehow seem to believe that a police officers medical opinion carries more weight than an actual pandemic experts medical opinion. This is clearly pretty stupid, perhaps you didn't think before posting?

But then, to double down and to suggest that to take a pandemic experts medical opinion over and police officers is ideologically based. Just wow. Logic fail?

It's your ideology that's showing, as you appear to be putting forward the clearly illogical position.

If that doesn't sum up the stupidity of conservatives then well, you can pick any of thousands of other examples I guess.

Jeez, we could be in the Broken States of America -

"You're a socialist"

"Well you're a conservative"

A police commissioner medical opinion holds weight because they are directly advised by state health officials.

Both police commissioner and state health experts have information that Swellnutters don't have access too.

And their opinions and others In charge are the only ones that count.

Okay that Link facto shared explained why all the conspiracy theorist nutters are back out in force again on social media.

Rehashing that malaria medication again and Zinc and vitamin C and apparently if you boast your immune system you are also safe to exposure to Covid.

Yeah right.

Rabbits68 - "When Joe public can walk the streets of his/her local community LEGALLY carrying a loaded AK-47 assault rifle, something, somewhere has gone horribly wrong....."

Blows your mind to think that you're talking about a 1st world country hey Rabbits68, how has it gone so wrong over there?
Can you imagine a guy walking down Chapel st in Melbourne with a fucking loaded MACHINE GUN!!!! casually slung over their shoulder.

The Victorian CMO Brett Sutton is the only CMO in Australia that is an epidemiologist. Mick Fuller is a cop who has been politically compromised in the past by both Gladys and Scomo.

doesn't matter Adam. The idiot conservatives have a position, and then reverse engineer the "facts". If that means using the medical opinions of a compromised cop rather than medical professionals, that's just how they roll.
These people don't give a toss about facts or science.

"Both police commissioner and state health experts have information that Swellnutters don't have access too."

So what would that information be Indo? Any information about the virus should be on the public record. Are you accusing the police commissioner and NSW Health of withholding information? That's a pretty serious charge. Nah. what am I thinking you're just making stuff up, as usual.

blowfly, go easy on our conservative friends on Swellnet. It's getting pretty hard for them to keep ignoring conservative fuckups like: dropping the ball on aged care, lack of PPE for aged care workers, Ruby Princess, Sydney Airport Fiasco, the endless calls for looser distancing restrictions (including in aged care by the PM), the law suits to reopen the borders, the social media drivel being published by their MPs, and of course the covid safe app which has completely failed.
Our conservative friends must know pretending the Melbourne BLM protest spread the virus, while all the other protests were perfectly safe, is looking rather silly, so be kind to Indo and D-Rex.

@GF - yeah it’s hard to wrap your head around it isn’t it. Although that was an extreme example, crazy is crazy no matter how you cut it.

You'll never know how your left wing friends would have handled the pandemic as they're the ones not holding the ball. So you can throw around words like failure, fiasco, shambles, debacle, whatever but truth be told, nobody can say with any certainty whether the opposite side of politics would have fared any better.

Roles reversed and faced with the same situation, would you regard your own world view with the same scorn?

"so be kind to Indo and D-Rex."
Nah, they're not conservatives they're fascist enablers who are too ignorant to even understand the extent to which their thoughts have been dictated by RWNJs based in the US who are working to impose on us the same moronic toxic absurd ideas that have the US on the brink of civil warn . I mean Indo? OK he's polite but jesus h christ the North Head Sewage works could barely cope with the shit he puts out every day. As for D Rex, he's just another loud mouth insult monger who would probably go into shock for a month if he ever had an original thought. Fuck 'em, and those like 'em. Only one question now. Which side are you on? And they chose wrong.

"nobody can say with any certainty whether the opposite of (sic) side of politics would have fared any better."
That's just absolute nonsense. Stuff ups aside, the LNP have consistently called for social distancing laws and state border restrictions to be relaxed. That's been very consistent across the country. We've even seen the PM threaten aged-care homes if they didn't allow more visitors. Utter madness.
Australia's relatively low Covid 19 figures would be much worse had the Liberal Party got their way on social distancing. Luckily Labor state governments have held the line against pressure from the Federal Liberal government and have ignored the even more shrill state Liberal oppositions. We're also lucky Liberal state governments have not caved in to the extremists in the Federal Liberal Party.
The fact is, conservatives are shit in a crisis. They never prepare for them and then blame others rather than fix the problems. Rona and Bushfires being text book examples of their shitshow. The Libs are still paying for ads for the covid safe app that has completely failed. How fucking stupid can they get?
And let's not forget, when Andrews pulled the trigger on lockdown in March, Scumo was keeping the borders open (for a fricken Hillsong conference) and planning to go to the footy.

To use words that you like to use often- your post is utter bullshit. You are speculating. You don't know because like I said, your Labor party are not the ones holding the ball. You are using the failings of the Coalition to bolster an argument that you have no way of predicting. The performance of the state Labor or Libs is moot. You have no way in knowing how the pandemic would have played out under a federal Labor government. Rightly or wrongly you can sink the boot into the conservatives or people that hold those values anyway you like, but like I asked, roles reversed same situation, would you be prepared to throw a bit of blame your own way? Or would it still be all the Libs fault?

This virus is actually very predictable. The more people move and the further they go, the faster it spreads. So no, you are wrong. Any ideology that advocates for looser restrictions creates a bigger medical problem which creates a bigger economic mess. So yes, we are worse off under a shambolic conservative government that continues to ignore the medical experts and the fricken obvious.

Goodness me, I thought you were a reasonably intelligent person.

Are we now talking about what a particular ideology advocates? Like the same ideology that cannot accept the umpires decision because the law is wrong? The same ideology that cannot accept the result of a democratically elected government?

Jesus man, again for the last time- you don't know what policies, procedures, protocols, systems whatever would have been in place under a federal Labor government. Anything on your part is pure speculation based on what you see and hear going on around you. And that's further compounded by your skewed world view. You could say you'd take a calculated guess, but that's the best you're gonna get. Certainty doesn't even enter the conversation.

Stunet, 'all clones of another'. Well who isn't really.....? We're all products of our information sources and experiences.

There ain't no conspiracy about the fact that ~400 people die everyday in Australia and only ~1 / day have died from COVID since this shit sow started. Why aren't we hearing about the other 399 deaths per day in the headlines and shutting down state borders and businesses, racking up billions in debt... Surely all this isn't a 'reasonable response' to the facts or even actual or potential risk. Its a scam and the 'conspiracy theorists' who have sniffed this out and are trying to talk about it are on the money. Sorry.

Remember our banter about COVID going on your death certificate if you had it but fell down the stairs .. Well here is the media finally bringing it to attention in UK (apologies for the facebook link couldn't find the original)
https://www.facebook.com/javed.girach.7/videos/327940615040788/?t=52

Can we say with certainty that all these 'cases' as the media puts it are even legit let alone the mortality rates. Both are likely far lower than the low reported numbers.

“Jesus man, again for the last time- you don't know what policies, procedures, protocols, systems whatever would have been in place under a federal Labor government”

With all due respect, nor do you Zen....

Speculation?

Two pretty simple things to point out Shortenism:

1. The cause of death being attributed to Covid is because we don't know the full anatomy of the disease, and we're in a pandemic. It's better to be conservative here rather than not - if a patient contracts Covid, develops a acute respiratory infection and dies - you attribute it to Covid. No one really knows yet all the ways Covid potentially kills people, hence the caution. Couldn't click your link but I'd assume it's not reputable if it's saying death by say blunt trauma is being counted as Covid.

2. Mortality and death is something the media is blowing up, but the reality is we don't know how sick people will get with this and dying is not everything. Long term effects, immuno disease or even just being hospitalised or out of action for a number of weeks is something we as a society need to be very careful with.sure on scientists and experts to er on the side of caution more so.

Conspiracy theorists come off quite desperate for 'comfort' in the fact that things are actually happening in a planned, and organised way. They'd rather pretend that some greater, even evil. power be at the helm then have to face the truth.

100％ correct Rabs.

But i'm not speculating and i'm certainly not proselytizing.

I'll leave that up to Vic.

If you want febrile discussion based on ideology and a distinct lack of nuance, Vic and Laurie are your fellas.

Of course if you want off the top of the head ignorant posturing then, spoilt for choice really, but AndyM is probably ahead on points over the long term. And as far as my ideology goes, what would that be? A belief in good governance, equity and fairness? For the rest, my views are based on wide reading on current affairs from a variety of sources as well as years of reading standard works on 20th Century history including biographies of LBJ (3 vols), Theodore Roosevelt (3 vols), Richard Nixon, Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, J. Edgar Hoover as well as Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky, Khruschev and Gorbachev. What I have taken from that is that Hayek got it backwards in his Road To Serfdom when he suggested that it was the welfare state and government control of economic decisions would lead to a totalitarian state. The reality is that it is neoliberalism that has led us a long way down the road to serfdom and totalitarianism.

"Good governance" the neoliberal lie, the privatisation lie, the deregulation lie, the cutting of red tape lie, the self regulation lie, the we will govern for all people lie, the draining the swamp and Brexit lie.

Reality check: On a world wide scale Australia is doing amazing, we have one big issue in Australia a second outbreak in Victoria.

But hello this is a Labor run state.

If it wasn't for the outbreak in Victoria we would be patting ourself on the back right now.

Anyway im just glad some of you people only get the one vote at election time.

Haha, Laurie over the years you’ve shown that you’re the king of on-the-fly ignorant posturing - you’ve openly admitted that you’re driven by emotion (rather than logic or facts).
Bed wetter extraordinarie.

Guysmiley,
In the back half of 2020 I'm hoping we see the start of pre-fascist / strong man governments falling around the world. They've completely failed to protect their citizens from Covid 19 and voters have had a gutful of their corruption and lawlessness.
Through pure coincidence Trump is the first pre-fascist scumbag to go to the polls. If he goes down, all the other petty thugs (eg Bolsonaro) and his enablers (Bojo and Scumo) are vulnerable too. Make no mistake, Murdoch will pull out all the stops to protect the castle. The USA is going to get very weird and very violent soon, and the back half of 2020 is going to be a lot worse than the first half.
We are seeing a very rapid change in the world's power structure. If Trump goes down, the next few years are going to be like the post WW2 years. Hopefully something better rises from the neo-liberal / pre fascist / mass corruption cesspool that has been created in many previously strong democracies. And yes I do include Australia in that cesspool.

Gee, I want both left and right just to return to the historical centre and also readopt the currently novel idea of working together for the good of all ...

Pentecostal Frontline Covid Converters smash Dutto's borders in mysterious ways.
Scomo's Comic Strip is keeping Pentecostal Qldurr'z Church out of the frame.
One of the Qld pair also works at the Pentecostal College...
Frontline pair are essentially President Brian's chosen Super Spreaderz.

This pair not only preached to all the Hot Spots but lied to all Border Authorities
Ask Scomo if they'll have their windows smashed like fugitive 'Eve' that refused ID.

All sacred sites are now Test Centres apart from tear down the borders HQ Church.

Shades of Scomo's Pentecostal Colour Conference rising the 1st Sydney wave.
PM : "These same mysterious evil forces keep spreading the virus across our land."
PM : "Our Frontline Girls had a Go!"

PS: Victoria 723 new cases...

Just saying it's nothing to do with Pentecostal Syd-Vic-Qld Corona Conga line.
[ Factcheck ] Sorry tbb...but all new Qld cases were spread by Scomo's Hot Spot Flock!
All whilst spreading the Good Lords corona leaflets via Oz letterboxes.
Pray tell how frontline Pentecostals can freely spread coronavirus over our mail?
Please Scomo & President Brian...Stop infecting 25 million Aussies with your virus.

PSS: Scomo's Covid Angels release Qld 2nd wave on Eve of State Election. Oops!

Does that extend to your mate Secretary General Xi Vic?

You know the one- the great leap two steps forward, one step back march to fascism.