COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
News from under the bus here (fiscal bus), infections have spread to Geelong, Colac-Otway and Surfcoast now. They seem to be coming back over the checkpoint border to the region with people who work in the city, or those traveling for work. Some are still disrespecting lockdown, but most people are doing the right thing. Numbers of infections in Melbourne don't seem to be lessening; but they are not exponentially growing either. A big thank you to those who understand this and are working to reverse the infection rate.
NY is near herd immunity, so to get to 60% or so we have to be shoved in close proximity like that, and go through that kind of carnage? 3.5 mil infected in the US, that's just over 1% of their population, total chaos and they are not even close to 60% country wide. The disruption to get the other 58% or so would be unimaginable.
OK - don't know about you all, but surviving damage to heart I've done, and it is not fun at all. You are looking at months of rehab, possible onset of anxiety or PTSD, wondering if the next pain in the chest is yet another trip to the ICU. Getting back in the water - hah! 6 months, and then it's wading out into little 1ft slushy point waves (best ever!) Trust me, you don't want to go through this. And that's before you count the cost to self, the health system (what price 5 trips to ED? And that was in a normal health system not under surge conditions), the economy (if you can't go back to work at the level you were, good luck for ladder work and roofing). Stroke too, is absolutely terrible - have seen that up close. If anything, it's worse, wait till you see a loved one who cannot even recognise you, it rips you to bits. Lung damage I haven't seen, but I've responded to severe asthma. How do you reckon paddling will be if your lungs are damaged and you have 2/3 the capacity? 1/2? Now imagine if that's your reality - every day.
NZ has eliminated it. 4 hard weeks, another 4 watchful weeks. It wasn't fun, they went hard and early (as did China), it disrupted the economy. So some weeks where we can't go to the snow, which is sad. It's very simple - deny the virus the ability to spread from person to person, and you beat it. And now NZ are virus free and open domestically again.
Good to hear from you VJ, and also good post.
The one positive is that the increase in infections isn't exponential as you've stated and within the same order of magnitude. Be good to see it decreasing over the next week though.
Well said VJ, I think people in general are focusing on deaths and largely ignoring the lingering effects to those who don't die, which based on the limited information available, are potentially dreadful.
I find the information that suggests that the immune response from infection wears off relatively quickly (like the common cold) particularly scary. I really hope that is not the case for a vaccine response.
If I was in the USA, there's absolutely no way I would send my kids to school. Long after Trump is gone, there could be a generation of people (kids as well) dealing with the lingering effects of this virus. Nobody knows the long term effects of this virus, but Trump's campaign needs the economy to recover, so kids get chucked in the giant Petri dish.
And as for the absolute Victorian morons who didn't isolate while waiting on their test results, words fail me. How stupid can you get?
Re not isolating while waiting for results.
A mate brought up a good point.
If they're going around and door knocking and asking people to take tests, those without symptoms that take the test aren't going to self isolate for days.
So you have to take into account some of these people in those stats.
@JQ & BB
Those results from India aren’t dodgy, and they’re another great piece of news this week in what I see as a momentum shift in our battle to overcome this prick of a virus. Perhaps you’ll notice this shift in retrospect, a little later.
You should lighten up, enjoy the bits of good news as they come. It’s been a good week
Sorry Craig, I was just referring to a Victorian review. Should have made that clearer.
"According to a review of data collected by contact tracers from everyone who tested positive to Covid-19 between 7 and 21 July, nine out of 10 people did not self-isolate when they felt sick, before they went and got a coronavirus test, and one in two did not self-isolate while they were waiting for their test results."
Those people who didn't self isolate when they felt sick or were awaiting results, are either compete morons, total Karens, or a combo of the both.
Oh wow that's a different story, 90% didn't self isolate when feeling sick. Fark!
Any logic to this, ya think?
How to process?
Shoredump, I'm not suggesting the numbers out of India are 'dodgy' - not any more so than most other countries anyway.
What is dodgy is extrapolating from the best figures available in one area of one country and then pretending that provides a reasonable approximation of the whole picture.
Given the events in Aus over the last week, I wouldn't categorise it as a 'good week' either.
JQ, I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I think the building science proving CV is far less deadly than previously thought, and the arrival of what looks like a workable vaccine, is great news.
Sure, you can say there’s more work to be done on the vaccine, just like people were picking apart Craig’s Tasman low forecast 2 weeks ago. The elements are already in place for what I think will be a combination of several half decent vaccines next year. The below is another example of my point regarding Delhi and further proof that a lot more info is being collected on this thing. Don’t be too rigid.
“Reported coronavirus cases vastly underestimate the true number of infections, U.S. government data suggest, echoing results from a smaller study last month.
Two data sets from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published Tuesday — one in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine and another on the agency’s website, based on follow-up data — say true COVID-19 rates are more than 10 times higher than reported cases in some U.S. regions
The estimates are based on COVID-19 antibody tests performed on routine blood samples in 16,000 people in 10 U.S. regions.”
Calling indo dreamcone. How are your comparisons of OZ vs NZ strategy now cuz?
I'm really gutted for Victoria. I think part of the problem is that the sense of community is lost in large populations.
NZ had the upper hand because we are more like regional OZ all over.
During lockdown in NZ the place turned into nark central. People saw no shame in dobbing in their fellow countrymen who were not doing the right thing.
I'm observing that a lot of Melbournites are selfish cunts with no community spirit whatsoever and unfortunately for country Victoria cases are on the up.
Brings a new level of meaning to cluster fuck.
shoredump, you can play with the numbers all you like but the reality is that you are arguing for less restrictions and that is irresponsible and dangerous since it encourages people to ignore them. The consequences of the type of arguments you are putting forward are on display right now in Victoria. At a time when there is major effort to get people to comply with the restrictions, you are attempting to undermine it. Your arguments about Indian infection rates and mortality rates are based on a single figure published on a bbc site. You have not provided any link to the source or the methodology. Your US data presumably comes from here;
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-s...
Perhaps you did not notice the list of qualifications provided with the data. The first being;
"People who have blood taken for routine screening or sick visits may not represent people from the total population in an area."
My reading of this is that the data includes blood test results from people who came forward because they already had symptoms. To extrapolate from that to the whole population is simply wrong and bound to produce an inflated infection rate.
Lol inzider....nice one....
There's plenty of 'selfish C's' everywhere - it's just in the cities you have more people, and hence more of them.
Melbourne is a city of actually quite open minded and generally friendly people. Compared to a lot of places in the world, you could strike up a conversation with someone here and ask for help, and likely get it.
The uptake of masks in my area here (St Kilda) has been impressive, even back when cases started to get to 100 per day. Lots of good news stories, lots of people helping each other out. Heaps of hand sanitiser everywhere...cleaners on the street scrubbing surfaces, all stores with social distancing policies etc. People are taking it very seriously and have been for some time. The news reports don't account for all of Melbourne, or all of Victoria - not everyone is breaking the rules.
You're so called observation is actually really disappointing, and is akin to the initial racism felt by people of Asian appearance around the world back when Covid started. This type of attitude will be damaging for the foreseable future.
The truth is - Melbourne and county Vic are so intertwined in their day to day you really can't separate them. Heap of commuters from regional VIC come to the city daily. There's also a huge chunk of Melb people who are from regional VIC, or have family there, or always had a holiday house there. Similar with interstate etc.
To think that this type of virus spread is containable without city wide hard lock down measures (which would be downright scary to see used in Australia), is plain ignorance. To blame the population is asinine.
Also...NZ obviously never really had any form of community transmission, and a fraction of the returned travellers Melbourne had. hence its ability to contain the virus and keep it that way.
inzider NZ also had a few big advantages over Australia re the battle against Covid 19. You blokes don't have Murdoch pushing mass circulation bullshit on a 24/7 basis. You don't have a pack of conservative politicians undermining the medical experts advice. Plus, I've found kiwis have a fair bit of commonsense.
F@#k off Blindboy, you’re an antagonist, and it’s ugly. Telling me here I should never question our governments policies, then selling the opposite elsewhere.
My goal is to bring hope. Deconstruct the fear I think my words were.
I’ve not argued for that and you’ve made up several things in our exchange today about my words. They’re your words. I’ve said today that vulnerable should be in a harder lockdown than what is currently happening. I’m not going to waste my time any more with you. I scrolled over all your arguments with Blowin but I’m getting the picture. There’s a pattern with you
This from The Age today:
"A woman who was planning to travel more than 100 kilometres from locked-down suburban Melbourne to the Surf Coast to catch some waves was one of 61 people fined for breaching coronavirus restrictions on Tuesday.
The would-be surfer was caught by police travelling from Strathmore, in the city's north-west, and was fine $1652 fine for flouting the stay-at-home directions."
Just what we need...some kook sneaking down for a wave making us all look bad!
Shoredump, you seem very fixated purely on the death rate/ratio statistics. As has already been mentioned in this thread, some of the lasting negative health effects, already observed in some people that have contracted this virus are very serious. The ongoing “cost” to governments, who knows? Maybe take a step back & try & see more than just the fatality scenario, which is also obviously very serious. From what I understand/read, Covid19 is a very unique beast. Still very early days.
Not at all Rabbits, it’s the covid fixation that is common on here that I’m trying to ease
Hammer hits nail on head!
Shoredump, and your medical and or scientific expertise in the area is precisely?
Shoredump, I know you’ve mentioned comparisons to smoking, road trauma, climate change etc, which are all obviously very relevant, but to almost dismiss Covid19 six months after the fact is premature IMO. All those other worthy issues have had plenty of time in the spot light over many years & for good reason. I think Covid19 deserves to be scrutinised every bit as much, particularly early on given the unknown nature of its immediate/short term future.
I agree, why, who’s dismissing it?
Sorry I shared some positive news on the subject.
Sheesh, you guys are incredible
I’m out, it’s been fun, mostly
“I agree, why, who’s dismissing it?”
Sounded very much like you were. Must be my misread, sorry.
SD I’m not having a go at you personally but I tend to trust what science says, I’m over arm chair experts questioning the science, I have a normally very fit/healthy mate in his 30s who has had covid and he says he’s never been sicker, I’m over teens - 40 year olds where I live not socially distancing at all (approx 50% of all Vic cases are in this age group), I’m over sweaty puffing joggers running pass me on bush walking tracks as if it’s fucking okay and lastly I haven’t surfed for weeks because of this Melbourne lockdown.
I didn’t know there was any science proving that every single infected person worldwide has been tested?
Why are you so sure of that?
What I’m saying is that the science coming out of Delhi suggests that asymptomatic people do exist, even just people who don’t come forward with a runny nose, and are in larger numbers than first thought. I’m personally not surprised by those numbers released yesterday in Victoria on how many weren’t isolating while feeling sick etc. it’s obvious to me that would be the case, I must have a deeper sense and ability to read people than you guys. (Read based in reality) Of course people are getting a cough and not going to a clinic, lots of them. They’re scared they’ll catch cv there. There’s lots of degrees of sick and everyone on day one denies they’re getting sick anyway, we all do it, putting it down to tiredness or the wine or whatever. Food poisoning is the only one that hits fast. So of course there’s a decent sized element there. That 90% figure could be a rough guide as to how many actual case numbers there are in Australia, it’s just building science that absolutely suggests what I’m saying, is the reality. And I haven’t forgotten that feeling of invincibility I possessed in youth. It’s easy to see, I feel, how this all plays out as one communities result.
You can definitely extrapolate that over to all of the worlds population. It will of course be at different levels due to each populations diet, age, density and the virus’ individual characteristics there.
To argue against that is to say there are zero asymptomatic cases world wide and zero people who won’t do absolutely everything for control of the virus, which I think is silly, and that’s the fear I’m trying to alleviate here. I think what I’m saying is common sense, I’m just excited to finally have the science behind it start to roll in. Knowing you don’t know much about it might be a good thing, because it’s obvious we all entertained the worst case scenario for a little while there back in the beginning.
The science is clear, (logic makes it crystal) and that is the case numbers are far higher than being reported
Guy, you’ll have a vaccine in your veins within a year, thanks to an inspiring worldwide effort. Soak up your kids, your bike and your dog. On your death bed in decades time, you’ll wonder why you worried so much. My personal suggestion is to read a book on Buddhism with your spare time
Focus on what you’ve got, not what you haven’t got
"Calling indo dreaming How are your comparisons of OZ vs NZ strategy now cuz?
I'm really gutted for Victoria. I think part of the problem is that the sense of community is lost in large populations.
NZ had the upper hand because we are more like regional OZ all over.
During lockdown in NZ the place turned into nark central. People saw no shame in dobbing in their fellow countrymen who were not doing the right thing.
I'm observing that a lot of Melbournites are selfish cunts with no community spirit whatsoever and unfortunately for country Victoria cases are on the up.
Brings a new level of meaning to cluster fuck."
I actually agree with pretty much all of that.
I cant stand you PM but ive never had an issue with NZ strategy or Australias strategy they were very similar. (only thing I've whinged about was not being able to go fishing especially seeing i often go fishing alone, it was more that every other state could still go fishing but we couldn't, if all states had the same restrictions it would have been easier to swallow)
Maybe there is some aspect in the community factor, but it's really about population it was always going to be much much harder for Australia with a population of about 25 million (5 times bigger population than NZ)
Just as it was always going to be harder for places with bigger pops like USA or UK than Australia.
You can see this reflected in the different states all the other states with low population have come close to getting rid of the virus, its only Victoria with a major break out and NSW with cases many linked to a Victorian
"NZ had the upper hand because we are more like regional OZ all over"
Yes i agree 5 million people spread out over two Islands, and about 20 major cities biggest with a population of 1.5 million next biggest less than 400,000.
Plus five times less international entry points and less people entering the country infected.
For some perspective Melbournes population is about the same as NZ and Sydney bigger still.
"I think part of the problem is that the sense of community is lost in large populations" guess this doesn't help in city areas but in regional areas we have community.
"I'm observing that a lot of Melbournites are selfish cunts with no community spirit whatsoever and unfortunately for country Victoria cases are on the up"
Yes I agree, I live on the coast about an hour from the burbs so not in lockdown but during our last lockdown every man and his dog was down here, this time they have been stricter though on policing movement.
But yeah sadly it takes only a few people to screw things up for everyone else.
Can the cat be put back in the bag?
Hope so, but IMHO the longer things go on the more many people dont take things seriously, it's kind of like the novelty wears off and people just get over it and stop taking things seriously, there was a noticeable change after the first restrictions were eased and then another noticeable easing when protest made a mockery of any restrictions.
How to process?
Well....
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/23/calls-for-paid-pa...
Hot off the presses:
In Victoria, the premier, Daniel Andrews ,has announced a hardship payment of $300 which will be available to anybody who has taken the coronavirus test and needs to remain off work to self-isolate until the results are in.
It follows concerns that people in insecure work and without sick leave were working while awaiting test results, spreading the virus.
The $300 payment would be important to containing spread and that people would no longer have an excuse not to isolate. He said applying for the payment would be quick.
"It’ll be a relatively simple and easy process. It essentially requires you, for instance, to provide a payslip. If you’re in a position where you’re not able to do that, then a statutory declaration to that effect, which will be done as simply and as easily as possible.
Paperwork is always important but it’s about making sure that we get those payments out as fast as possible. What we’ve got at the moment is people who feel unwell, but don’t want to go and get tested quick enough because they’re fearful of not being able to go to work.
This $300 payment will go a long way to supporting those families, and having them make much better choices. If you’re sick, get tested quick and then isolate until you get a test result. If you were then a positive case, then you would be eligible because those same insecure work circumstances apply, you would be eligible for a further $1,500 payment, and we would make sure that we made those payments as quickly as possible.
This is about trying to make being an earner doesn’t compromise or see you making bad choices for every other family across our state so this ensures that people are no worse off."
Will there be a Federal response, I wonder (us being, as PR Scotty put it, "all Victorians now")?
Working as an official in Public Health, having done the stats over and over again, the only thing that would make sense: (a) Govt are retarded, really like authority/abusing powers, are scared and totally corrupt -medical industry making lots of money; and/or there is a huge trade war with china and the large players are trying to justify a shut down-restart of the economy -"all war is deception" Lao Tzu.
Stats say COVID 19 is a nothing event - just like the WOMD, and the mooslim tear-o-wrists and all the other false flag bullshit before it.
Science is ONLY: the application of the scientific method.
Mass public debt historically occurs before and after major wars.
Black plague killed 40-50% of Europe - they still had more freedom/less authoritarian laws then the current situation -she'll be right.
We should keep our heads down, shut the fuck up and get a cool face mask like a toureg turban or something stylish.
"yes sir, no sir, three bags full sir"
factotum. The precarious nature of casual work and no safety net, is such an obvious weakness in fighting Covid 19. Poor people either go to work with a sniffle or get evicted, or go hungry. It's not rocket science.
There's three problems. 1. Supporting casuals is expensive and 2. You'd get some people taking the piss. 3. This type of welfare is not and never has been the responsibility of state governments.
At the end of the day, this second lockdown is crushing the economy.
Scumo isn't really standing behind his "We're all Victorians" statement. But just you wait, when this situation happens in NSW, Scumo will come leaping in with the cash to help out glad bags.
This type of outbreak is what happens when people blame Dan Andrews for everything. People end up pointing the finger rather than fixing the fucking problem.
Vic, the problem goes back to the exploitation of casuals in the workforce. The problem of people going to work sick would not occur if we had maintained anything like our traditional standards in working conditions. If you have people with minimum guaranteed hours, no sick leave and a pathetic hourly rate....and then you put them in positions of responsibility such as aged care and security then the pandemic will expose the weaknesses. I would be pretty sure that a serious analysis of aged care would reveal top heavy (90% anglo) management doing 3/5ths of fuck all while (90% Asian) floor workers are expected not only to cope with unmanageable workloads, but also to manage frequent health crises in the people they care for.
90% of Victorians don’t isolate once sick, and 20% of the workforce is casual.
That $300 will do little, but it’s a step.
People don’t isolate because it’s a hassle
Vic, tssk, tssk - you forgot to blame Murdoch. Please rectify in your next post.
"People don’t isolate because it’s a hassle"
So inconvenient when you have no money and a family to feed what a hassle eh?
I'd say the fact people weren't isolating is somewhat psychological.
They were testing people with even the most minor of symptoms - a runny nose, a tickled throat etc. Symptoms people would be experiencing multiple times a winter anyway.
When the lockdown started 2 weeks ago cases were low, and in some ways still are low. There'd be a lot of people who for whatever reason got tested, but would be thinking there's no way this slightly runny nose I have is Covid - hence they may feel they can bend the isolation rules. This particularly comes into play when you need to physically work to keep your income.
Now that daily cases are getting higher, I'd suspect the thought process would have changes and people will actually follow rules - that the chance of them having Covid is now a more real of a risk. So hopefully, it improves.
Thanks D-Rex. Always love an excuse to post this.
"An investigator working for the News of the World allegedly hacked into the mobile phone of murdered girl Milly Dowler, ..........which gave her parents false hope she was alive."
How low can you go? Onya Rupert you prick!
With this lack of required isolation and frustration with lockdowns perhaps if people had more respect in their elected representatives and were less cynical of genuine experts like scientists the public might take covid19 more seriously.
For decades we have been fed the line/lie that small government and taxes are good, the rights of the individual are paramount, of individual aspiration, that the science of climate change is freely open to debate or even disbelieved and now the chickens are coming home to roost. People are acting in their best financial interest at the very time our political leaders want them to put the community first.
Sounds good id be happy to have a test for $300 i don't get sick pay, often take a few days off work anyway, happy to stay home and do some stuff around the house.
i have to say, on a practical level this wearing a mask shit is getting old already after one day (well not even a full day yet)
never been a scarf/hat/beanie wearer (hated having to wear a bike helmet when they brought that law in), just don't like wearing stuff on my head, let alone over my nose/mouth, it's just really unpleasant
the fact that it was only a month ago that masks were actively discouraged also does my head in a bit
i guess it's a small sacrifice and i bloody hope it helps, because there's too many people in their 80's & 90's dying in nursing homes atm.
Stok
I've lived and worked in Melbourne a lot over the last 20 years I do know the joint quite good. Racist I'm not I hate everyone evenly.
Melbourne has pockets of community spirit here and there but I'm generalising the city as whole. It's a different beast now than say 20 years ago when I lived off smith st in Collingwood. Same as St kilda , gone from junkie hoes to gentrification.
I used to commute from torquay to the city using the train from Marshall, fuck all community spirit on that service.
I've traveled a lot on the train to the la trobe valley and fuck all community spirit on that service. Unless sharing dealer info is an example of community. Hows the injecting room working out for the Richmond community?
The only way to beat covid if everyone is on the same page and works cohesively together.
"Racist I'm not I hate everyone evenly."
Ha ha...you know Inzider we have clashed in the past, but i have to say you are growing on me.
That line cracked me up, pure gold.
And I fucken loathe you, Info, ya worst of the worst example of Aussie wilfully ignorant dumb-cuntness*.
Yew!
Pure gold.
*not a race though, I think.
...and don't forget, a welfare leeching bludger to boot!
Is that troll for me?
Yes when i was young and on the dole i always voted Labor cause i wanted as much free money as i could get and i knew they would give it to me and with the least hoops to jump as possible.
These days as a business owner things are different though...but hey still happy to take a free pointless handout if its offered up.
You'd be mad not to.
Yes indo we have clashed but it's only the internerd. Not like any of us on these pages actually know each other properly. Diversity of opinion is the foundation of a good democracy.
ID, remember your ignore button - no point engaging these morons in serious debate. You, me and Rupert can enjoy our intellectual superiority without descending into the depths plumbed by those who stick their heads up their bums and then blame us for turning out the lights.
inzider agree Melb, as most other cities (and even rural towns) are seemingly changing for the worse - is it part of us growing old? Things seemed to be better before?
But still - can't agree with your comments re. Melb. In terms of cities, it's about as good as it gets for community spirit - particularly in Oz. You know how many people help out homeless crew here? You seen the size of the Change the Date protests? The Midsumma Pride March? Climate Change protest? All large, generally community reliant events which are possible in Melbourne due to the people there, who are for the most part, friendly, open minded and give a F@#K.
Took the dog for some much needed exercise today, and went to grab a takeaway lunch and a coffee - literally only saw 2 people not wearing masks, out of maybe 500 odd people I saw. If that's not cohesive community spirit then what is?
People keeping there distance, lots of smiles behind masks etc.
p.s. tell me that in regional VIC you're not going to find anti-5G crew, or anti-vaxxers, white supremacists etc. Not saying you can;t find these ones in Melb too....
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia