COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
bluediamond wrote:Roadkill wrote:Good to see Mother Teresa spreading the peace with numerous others,
Who knows the story of the frog and the scorpion?
Just wanna say an unreserved apology for yesterdays rant to you Roadkill. I was pretty hammered watching the cricket and definitely let my emotions get the better of me. Might not agree with you or how you go about things. No need to talk to someone i don't know like that. Sorry.
No need to apologise, bd. We all say a lot on here to each other.
However, I thank you for taking the time to say it.
Roadkill wrote:bluediamond wrote:Roadkill wrote:Good to see Mother Teresa spreading the peace with numerous others,
Who knows the story of the frog and the scorpion?
Just wanna say an unreserved apology for yesterdays rant to you Roadkill. I was pretty hammered watching the cricket and definitely let my emotions get the better of me. Might not agree with you or how you go about things. No need to talk to someone i don't know like that. Sorry.
No need to apologise, bd. We all say a lot on here to each other.
However, I thank you for taking the time to say it.
Cheers mate.
BD sitting here watching the cricket also....easy to comment 1/2 ya luck ya can get hammered....I have to drink bloody water........nice to see an apology on this mememememeeemmeme and more me thread..LOL....
bluediamond wrote:Roadkill wrote:Good to see Mother Teresa spreading the peace with numerous others,
Who knows the story of the frog and the scorpion?
Just wanna say an unreserved apology for yesterdays rant to you Roadkill. I was pretty hammered watching the cricket and definitely let my emotions get the better of me. Might not agree with you or how you go about things. No need to talk to someone i don't know like that. Sorry.
bluediamond wrote:Roadkill wrote:Good to see Mother Teresa spreading the peace with numerous others,
Who knows the story of the frog and the scorpion?
Just wanna say an unreserved apology for yesterdays rant to you Roadkill. I was pretty hammered watching the cricket and definitely let my emotions get the better of me. Might not agree with you or how you go about things. No need to talk to someone i don't know like that. Sorry.
Good post, respect.
blindboy wrote:BH 30% of Australian adults are obese. The figure is about 40% in the US. The 80,000 is based on Australia's population of 25 million being a tenth of the US 250 million. They have had 873000 deaths so I divided by 10 and yes, allowed for the health difference.
I'll take your word that you allowed for health differences. However, let's look at those allowances. Were obesity and age your only metrics of health reference between Australia and America? No other considerations?
I offered obesity and obesity related illness/disease due to the correlation between covid deaths and BMI, but did state "a variety of health measures.” 10% difference is statsitically significant, as is the morbidly obese %.
Update: I will wait for an answer before highlighting some key areas of health and subsequent ethno-cultural/socio-economic variables which have the USA sitting within the top 10 unhealthiest nations in the world and where Australia regularly ranks in the top ten healthiest. Which I believe leads to the two countries being the least likely candidates of comparability for covid mortality as you have done here BB.
yeah RK.....now we are getting civil to each other...Mother T would be proud,LOL!
Roadkill wrote:bluediamond wrote:Roadkill wrote:Good to see Mother Teresa spreading the peace with numerous others,
Who knows the story of the frog and the scorpion?
Just wanna say an unreserved apology for yesterdays rant to you Roadkill. I was pretty hammered watching the cricket and definitely let my emotions get the better of me. Might not agree with you or how you go about things. No need to talk to someone i don't know like that. Sorry.
No need to apologise, bd. We all say a lot on here to each other.
However, I thank you for taking the time to say it.
blindboy wrote:"So what’s the explanation for countries with low deaths, low vaccination and no real lockdowns ?"
Give me an example and I will have a look. I suspect diferent countries have a variety of different factors.
If you are a fair and impartial commenter then why do you immediately assume that the US, with its outlying and misrepresentative covid statistics, would be an appropriate comparison with Australia?
Of course you selected the most catastrophic results out of a possible 194 other nations with which to extrapolate a potential fatality rate. You did so in order to indulge your sadistic tendencies for doom prophecy Sicko.
Supafreak wrote:blindboy wrote:BH 30% of Australian adults are obese. The figure is about 40% in the US. The 80,000 is based on Australia's population of 25 million being a tenth of the US 250 million. They have had 873000 deaths so I divided by 10 and yes, allowed for the health difference.
So what’s the explanation for countries with low deaths, low vaccination and no real lockdowns and terrible health systems ?
Really good question, i dont have the answer but a few possible ideas.
Maybe high risk groups are not as big as
1. low obesity rate in population.
2. Most of population young and not as many elderly as just dont make it to that age.
3. People with serious health issues die earlier as dont get ongoing treatment
burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/as-we-feared-antivaxxers-f...
This is my favourite part Toadkill
“We predicted this, we said there would be a tsunami here, everyone predicted it would sweep through the pockets of the unvaccinated.”
Fear fear fear. Jab jab jab
Just like this headline……
Never forget that not a single case was ever detected in Byron after this ridiculous beat up. Too much fear mongering is never enough!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/it-ll-rip-through-like-wildfire-byro...
indo-dreaming wrote:Supafreak wrote:blindboy wrote:BH 30% of Australian adults are obese. The figure is about 40% in the US. The 80,000 is based on Australia's population of 25 million being a tenth of the US 250 million. They have had 873000 deaths so I divided by 10 and yes, allowed for the health difference.
So what’s the explanation for countries with low deaths, low vaccination and no real lockdowns and terrible health systems ?
Really good question, i dont have the answer but a few possible ideas.
Maybe high risk groups are not as big as
1. low obesity rate in population.
2. Most of population young and not as many elderly as just dont make it to that age.
3. People with serious health issues die earlier as dont get ongoing treatment
The US covid statistics are fraudulent.
Fact.
You Blowin, do you realise that you are a nonentity as much as I am ? But still toxic.
Blowin, you raise some good points but one thing I’ve discovered is some people will never keep all possibilities open, once they’ve gone down a path they’ll never return.
Better to ask questions.
Have the vaccines achieved herd immunity?
If not what percentage is necessary to achieve herd immunity?
Maybe 80% vaccinated?
Maybe 80% boosted?
Given the rapid reduction in efficacy of the vaccines (seems like about 6 months max) is it possible to boost 80% (or even 90%) of the population every 6 months?
If so, at what cost?
What’s the “usual” level of evidence required to justify off-label prescriptions?
"About 3% of ICU beds in NSW are occupied by unvaccinated people."
Yeah I'm going to call bullshit on you again blowin.
Tell us how you made those figures up champ.
BH, if you have stats on the health differences of the populations put them up. The estimate was pretty straightforward. 10% of 873000 is 87,300. I rounded down to 80,000 to allow for the difference in health profiles. I can't see how the factors you are raising are actually significant to the basic argument. Even if you had evidence to drop the estimate to 50,000 that is still getting up towards 25 times our death rate. The key point is that our health strategy worked, theirs didn't. The detail is irrelevant to that simple overwhelming truth.
tylerdurden wrote:Blowin, you raise some good points but one thing I’ve discovered is some people will never keep all possibilities open, once they’ve gone down a path they’ll never return.
Better to ask questions.
Have the vaccines achieved herd immunity?
If not what percentage is necessary to achieve herd immunity?
Maybe 80% vaccinated?
Maybe 80% boosted?
Given the rapid reduction in efficacy of the vaccines (seems like about 6 months max) is it possible to boost 80% (or even 90%) of the population every 6 months?
If so, at what cost?
What’s the “usual” level of evidence required to justify off-label prescriptions?
Seeming boosters are about to be every 3 months I think you’re numbers are a bit off
I think you’ll notice Blindboy and VicLocal will not answer those questions, as is their form
tylerdurden wrote:I think you’ll notice Blindboy and VicLocal will not answer those questions, as is their form
In our defence, they are pretty stupid questions not worthy of a response. You blokes keep ragging on vaccines because they are not perfect. You also want responses to questions that have so many unknown variables, the questions become nonsensical.
When it comes to the vaccine, the key question is: does it reduce your chances of getting seriously ill or dying from covid? It is so bleeding obvious that getting vaxxed improves your prospects of avoiding hospital visits, ICU admissions and death.
But carry on morons, you keep banging away with stupid questions, meaningless stats, made up stats, hypotheticals, and just flat out bullshit if it makes you happy.
BB and I will still be mocking you clowns.
BTW blowin, where's you evidence that only 3% of ICU beds in NSW are being filled with unvaccinated morons?
brutus wrote:BD sitting here watching the cricket also....easy to comment 1/2 ya luck ya can get hammered....I have to drink bloody water........nice to see an apology on this mememememeeemmeme and more me thread..LOL....
bluediamond wrote:Roadkill wrote:Good to see Mother Teresa spreading the peace with numerous others,
Who knows the story of the frog and the scorpion?
Just wanna say an unreserved apology for yesterdays rant to you Roadkill. I was pretty hammered watching the cricket and definitely let my emotions get the better of me. Might not agree with you or how you go about things. No need to talk to someone i don't know like that. Sorry.
haha. Will be back on the water shortly Brutus. Good to see the big Cam Green clocking up a few wickets. Cheers mate.
"Have the vaccines achieved herd immunity?"
No, but they have massively reduced deaths and hospitalisations
"If not what percentage is necessary to achieve herd immunity?"
Full herd immunity will probably not be possible with the existing vaccines. Even with a vaccine that is 100% effective against infection by all variants we still might need 90% of the total population. The virus is highly infectious and would likely continue to spread amongst the unvaccinated.
"Given the rapid reduction in efficacy of the vaccines (seems like about 6 months max) is it possible to boost 80% (or even 90%) of the population every 6 months?"
Probably not, so it is likely that the pandemic has some distance to run. Raina MacIntyre who is on the World Health Organization’s technical advisory group on Covid-19 vaccine composition believes it is not possible to achieve herd immunity through natural infection, so we are probably going to have to wait for next generation vaccines removing the need for boosters, though it is worth noting that many people, uncontroversially, already have a yearly "booster" for influenza.
"What’s the “usual” level of evidence required to justify off-label prescriptions?
Complicated. Read this.
https://www.nps.org.au/australian-prescriber/articles/off-label-prescribing
indo-dreaming wrote:
haha classic @indo
blindboy wrote:BH, if you have stats on the health differences of the populations put them up. The estimate was pretty straightforward. 10% of 873000 is 87,300. I rounded down to 80,000 to allow for the difference in health profiles. I can't see how the factors you are raising are actually significant to the basic argument. Even if you had evidence to drop the estimate to 50,000 that is still getting up towards 25 times our death rate. The key point is that our health strategy worked, theirs didn't. The detail is irrelevant to that simple overwhelming truth.
Hang on a second BB, it's not up to me to qualify or disqualify your original comment/opinion with the very health stats that you said you referenced only after I called you out on them in my reply to your OC. Either way, you still haven't identified what stats on health differences you used in your allowances to get to your figure. You need to do the heavy lifting, not me. Age was originally the only determining factor that you accounted for to get to 80k deaths. Hence why I replied, as that's far too simplistic and the countries are incomparable, then we got to the health metrics after I raised them.
“I can't see how the factors you are raising are actually significant to the basic argument.”
If you can't see how the overall health differences, coupled with the socio-economic and cultural profiles of america vs australia relate to covid deaths, then we are both wasting our time as I see this as critically important. Especially within the winter months in some of those freezing house projects with no heating in New York, as an example & to paint a picture. “Death Towers” I believe they called them at the time.. Lots of vignettes such as these that are uniquely American and totally foreign to our experience here in Aus.
“Even if you had evidence to drop the estimate to 50,000 that is still getting up towards 25 times our death rate”
The onus isn't on me to provide evidence on the health metrics you said you accounted for.
“The key point is that our health strategy worked, theirs didn't.”
I agree.
Well Blindboy, why is Ivermectin banned and doctors are punished when they prescribe it? That link you posted shows that it is unprecedented and against everything that otherwise occurs in off-label prescribing.
Not to mention the very large list of medications that are “recommended against” or only to be used in trials?
Can you cite me another disease with so many limitations?
VicLocal, you have deflected the point.
Will we be able to vaccinate our way out of this pandemic?
What are the negatives from boosting everyone every 4 months?
You also didn’t respond to my other post about early treatment when you called me an idiot.
I’m suspicious you had no good answer and any reply would just make yourself look like an idiot
BH, I disagree. I made an estimate on grounds that seemed crystal clear to me but which you apparently did not understand. I explained them to you in detail. If you disagree with that then sorry, but it is up to you to come up with a different estimate or at least some thing more substantial than your vague comments on the differences between the US and Australia. There are, of course, no definite answers to counter-factuals but the message from this one is clear and we agree on that.
tyler post the relevant section of the link and I will look at it...tomorrow.
tylerdurden wrote:Well Blindboy, why is Ivermectin banned and doctors are punished when they prescribe it? That link you posted shows that it is unprecedented and against everything that otherwise occurs in off-label prescribing.
Not to mention the very large list of medications that are “recommended against” or only to be used in trials?
Can you cite me another disease with so many limitations?VicLocal, you have deflected the point.
Will we be able to vaccinate our way out of this pandemic?
What are the negatives from boosting everyone every 4 months?
You also didn’t respond to my other post about early treatment when you called me an idiot.
I’m suspicious you had no good answer and any reply would just make yourself look like an idiot
Really TDD.
"Will we be able to vaccinate our way out of this pandemic?" Do you really want a yes or no answer, despite the fact that there are so many variables and so many unknowns?
"What are the negatives from boosting everyone every 4 months?" financial costs, rare side effects. The negatives of course needs to be weighed up against the benefits of boosters.
Fair dinkum you blokes, you like to dumb everything down. This pandemic isn't as predictable as you'd like. You ask silly questions about situations months in the future and want yes / no responses. And when you can't follow the complexity of the pandemic you lot write off the experts and think you know better.
That entire link you posted is relevant to Ivermectin Blindboy.
I’m not necessarily saying that it works but Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz says it is plausible that it has a 5-10 benefit.
Scroll through to about the 20min mark.
Might be even more when combined with other medications.
So why are GP’s banned from prescribing it? A few have been punished for doing so. Any good explanation why?
blindboy wrote:BH, if you have stats on the health differences of the populations put them up. The estimate was pretty straightforward. 10% of 873000 is 87,300. I rounded down to 80,000 to allow for the difference in health profiles. I can't see how the factors you are raising are actually significant to the basic argument. Even if you had evidence to drop the estimate to 50,000 that is still getting up towards 25 times our death rate. The key point is that our health strategy worked, theirs didn't. The detail is irrelevant to that simple overwhelming truth.
We are an Island at the arse end of the World.
Comparing us to the US is laughable.
VicLocal, that is a classic response from someone who has no good answers.
Ridicule the question, not address it.
Personally I think it will be very difficult if not impossible to achieve 80+% of our population fully boosted simultaneously yet you seem like this is the only answer.
That line of thinking costs a fortune and may not achieve anything. Keep an open mind mate, early treatment may be the answer
"So why are GP’s banned from prescribing it? A few have been punished for doing so. Any good explanation why?"
Oh FFS TDD because there's fuck all evidence Ivermectin actually works. Christ mate, this drug has been examined thoroughly and rejected thoroughly. Do you seriously want a system where doctors can prescribe unproven medications that have side effects without consequences? Christ mate, doctors need to be held accountable for their decisions. You're basically arguing for an environment where doctors can prescribe ridiculous treatments with zero consequences. Evidence is important.
TDD, Seriously mate, enough with the Youtube medical research. There's no joy down that rabbit hole. Best not take the burleigh route.
Try this link, 20 min mark
https://m.
That comment VicLocal puts you completely at odds with the link Blindboy provided.
And in regards to YouTube medical research, do you disagree with Gideon?
Imagine rolling your sleeve up every 4 months, you people are so sucked in it’s laughable.
Should be noted ivermectin nobel prize honoured distinction.
Not just for horses and worms.
Vic Local wrote:"So why are GP’s banned from prescribing it? A few have been punished for doing so. Any good explanation why?"
Oh FFS TDD because there's fuck all evidence Ivermectin actually works. Christ mate, this drug has been examined thoroughly and rejected thoroughly. Do you seriously want a system where doctors can prescribe unproven medications that have side effects without consequences? Christ mate, doctors need to be held accountable for their decisions. You're basically arguing for an environment where doctors can prescribe ridiculous treatments with zero consequences. Evidence is important.
TDD, Seriously mate, enough with the Youtube medical research. There's no joy down that rabbit hole. Best not take the burleigh route.
You mean like the sniff vaccine that doesn’t work and the side affects it causes lol, boom boom.
tylerdurden wrote:That line of thinking costs a fortune and may not achieve anything. Keep an open mind mate, early treatment may be the answer
Seriously TDD, this argument is ridiculous.
Firstly vaccinations may not achieve herd immunity (like you want) but it doesn't mean they don't "achieve anything". If you can't see how they are saving lives, that's scary.
"early treatment may be the answer" You do realise early treatments and vaccines are not mutually exclusive. Doctors can, and do do both.
There's no grand conspiracy why doctors support vaccines, don't prescribe ivermectin, and use the best available early treatments. It's an evidence based profession.
Mate you are heading down a bad road with this You Tube medical resurch. It doesn't lead to enlightenment. You won't discover stuff the thousands of professors and medical experts have missed. You'll just find bullshit, lots and lots of bullshit. .
Thought you had to be double jabbed to get a plane out of Australia, another gov rule changed to suit themselves.
I think you are purposely misconstruing things VicLocal.
You ridicule anyone who speaks negatively about the efficacy of vaccines, then claim there’s no evidence for Ivermectin when Gideon himself says it has plausible 5-10% effect.
At the same time, you can’t bring yourself to admit that despite a very high level of vaccination, which should have achieved herd immunity, it has simply not been achieved.
They have certainly decreased severity of illness but have not prevented a recent mass outbreak.
I would hazard a guess and suggest from you’re posts and opinions that I know a whole lot more about vaccine theory than you do but I’m sure you’ll dispute this too.
Not sure where you’re at, seems like you’re anti everyone.
This country has approved only budesonide and mono-clinal abs for early treatment...that’s the ScoMo policy, the same guy you are constantly deriding.
Not sure how therefore to approach this topic at all with you.
Id like to know why doctors can legally prescribe ivermectin in countries like the US and Japan but not Australia even after Professor Borody and other doctors treated 500 Australians as outpatients with no deaths . Countries using ivermectin https://ivmstatus.com/
TD - Aust GPs can still prescribe Ivermectin for Scabies and Worms ?
Robo wrote:Thought you had to be double jabbed to get a plane out of Australia, another gov rule changed to suit themselves.
Must of had an exemption, you know, like the one he came in on .
Don’t know what came of this , nothing much has been said since pathetic articles came out accusing Borody of his motives being purely financially based . Doesn’t come across as the type of guy to be in medicine purely to make money. https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-true-believers-backing-iv... Sydney-based Professor Thomas Borody does not support this view. He does, however, believe ivermectin-combination therapy can change the course of this pandemic. He and a group of other doctors have treated over 500 COVID-19 patients in Australia with a triple therapy consisting of ivermectin, doxycycline and zinc – without any deaths. The TGA ruling means they can no longer prescribe this combination. They are likely to substitute another off-patent drug, fluvoxamine, developed originally as an antidepressant.
“You have to do things in a process that is acceptable. You have to do it right,” says Borody. The group plans to seek a provisional application from the TGA for the ivermectin triple therapy using a literature-based submission with supportive evidence from patients treated. “We are doing it properly.”
Supafreak wrote:Robo wrote:Thought you had to be double jabbed to get a plane out of Australia, another gov rule changed to suit themselves.
Must of had an exemption, you know, like the one he came in on .
Foreigners can leave anytime no double vax needed up to Airline if neg PCR test required
Unbelievably, one of the Australian government lawyer's main arguments is that Djokovic may become "an icon of free choice". Exact words used. Oh my.
— Northern Lass (@northerness) January 16, 2022
Vic Local wrote:Do you seriously want a system where doctors can prescribe unproven medications that have side effects without consequences? Christ mate, doctors need to be held accountable for their decisions
You talking about the vax right?
No doctor is held accountable for the vax, so why other untested drugs.
Is the reason ivermectin is not tested because there is no patient? Which means no money for big pharma
Genuine question, at what death rate would people forgo their beliefs and support vaccination, without questioning government and health advices?
2.5%? 5%? 25%?
Say a new variant came out, killing 1 in 20 people, hospitalising 1 in 10, just as transmissible as Omicron.
Lockdowns are announced - who would protest?
1 month later, 'big Pharma' comes out with a booster, reduces risk of death by 75%, reduces risk of transmission by a degree (not exactly known) - who would take it? Who would rely on their own immunity?
Is it just a question of severity of covid which has shaped your position?
UFC President Dana White is asked about 200+ Doctors demanding Spotify censor Joe Rogan. pic.twitter.com/hNrJ6UVHmK
— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) January 16, 2022
Stok wrote:Genuine question, at what death rate would people forgo their beliefs and support vaccination, without questioning government and health advices?
2.5%? 5%? 25%?
Say a new variant came out, killing 1 in 20 people, hospitalising 1 in 10, just as transmissible as Omicron.
Lockdowns are announced - who would protest?
1 month later, 'big Pharma' comes out with a booster, reduces risk of death by 75%, reduces risk of transmission by a degree (not exactly known) - who would take it? Who would rely on their own immunity?
Is it just a question of severity of covid which has shaped your position?
I reckon a bunch of the idiot posters here would be the types begging doctors for vaccines as they struggled to breath in ER.
Evidence means nothing to them until it becomes very personal.
I’ll post the question back at you Stok but in reverse: at what death rate would you say vaccine mandates are unnecessary?
1 in 1000, 1 in 2000, 1 in 10000?
Vic Local wrote:Stok wrote:Genuine question, at what death rate would people forgo their beliefs and support vaccination, without questioning government and health advices?
2.5%? 5%? 25%?
Say a new variant came out, killing 1 in 20 people, hospitalising 1 in 10, just as transmissible as Omicron.
Lockdowns are announced - who would protest?
1 month later, 'big Pharma' comes out with a booster, reduces risk of death by 75%, reduces risk of transmission by a degree (not exactly known) - who would take it? Who would rely on their own immunity?
Is it just a question of severity of covid which has shaped your position?
I reckon a bunch of the idiot posters here would be the types begging doctors for vaccines as they struggled to breath in ER.
Evidence means nothing to them until it becomes very personal.
Straight away with the aggression. Are you always angry and extremely pissed off at everyone Viclocal? Nearly every post is riddled with venom, across the board. Having that much hate in your heart, even online, can't be good for you man.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia