House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

bonza's picture
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bonza Thursday, 9 Feb 2023 at 9:39pm

*warning**RBA critique alert**warning*

".....while the RBA warns darkly about rising labour costs, the growing importance of profits in driving higher prices is not mentioned....But corporations with pricing power (particularly potent in sectors like energy, housing and groceries) took advantage of those disruptions to fatten their profit margins. They have profited from inflation, while workers lost out."

https://theconversation.com/profits-push-up-prices-too-so-why-is-the-rba...

"....Tough talk like this helps to “anchor” public expectations of inflation ....But what if that’s not actually what causes inflation? What if the power to set prices causes inflation, and people with that power continue to use it anyway?...."

https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/in-the-past-year-the-nominal-cost...

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Thursday, 9 Feb 2023 at 10:34pm

So was Phillip Lowe talking shit?
Where is it that wages growth has responded "mechanically" to the higher inflation rate?

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Thursday, 9 Feb 2023 at 10:37pm

"ABS data show that in the last year (as inflation took off), corporate profits per unit of output grew 21%. That’s seven times faster than unit labour costs."

Nothing to see here.
Everything's going as planned.

gsco's picture
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gsco Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 8:02am

Those articles are not sensibly attacking the RBA. The authors are just embarrassing themselves.

They're literally guessing at the breakdown of the drivers of inflation (demand vs profit margins vs wages vs other input costs vs inflation expectations etc). They don't admit that economists in the RBA and other places have actual model-based estimates of this.

The RBA knows the importance of wages as a driver. They also know that strong consumer demand gives companies pricing power to exploit.

By increasing interest rates and slowing down economic activity, particularly consumer demand, the RBA can take away some of that pricing power. The articles magically fail to mention this "economics 101" principle.

In passing, people seem to think the RBA is "evil" for saying things like wages growth needs to reduce, like the RBA is trying to slaughter the Aussie battler. It's also economics 101 that wages growth not driven by productivity growth predominately just ends up in inflation and hence ultimately zero real wages growth. The only sustainable, lasting driver of real wages growth is productivity growth.

The Labor party evidently realises this and Chalmers' essay discusses at length plans for the government to invest in productivity growth, since the last couple of decades seems to indicate that the private market won't really do it if left to its own devices.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 8:30am
kaiser wrote:

If they don’t tame inflation soon, wage spiral is a real continuing risk.

Due respect but this boogeyman of a wage spiral....there's zero evidence for it, despite record low unemployment.
Upwards pressure on wages will quickly be replaced by downwards pressure as worker supply (record immigration) flows through the economy before anything resembling a wage spiral takes hold.

We haven't see a wage spiral for 50 years.

The economy is not driven now by labour demands.

gsco's picture
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gsco Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 8:42am

nominal wages growth is ok right now at 3-3.5% but it would be dangerous if it got any higher, particularly given productivity growth (which is actually negative right now).

Btw people don't seem to be mentioning that by increasing interest rates and slowing economic activity, the RBA is directly going to war with company profits.

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bonza Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 8:47am

yeah coz the "people" have real market power when it comes to housing affordability and turning the lights on. Two essential and overwhelming expenditures that raising interest rates have shown thus far to have nil effect on.

soggydog's picture
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soggydog Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 8:59am
gsco wrote:

Those articles are not sensibly attacking the RBA. The authors are just embarrassing themselves.

They're literally guessing at the breakdown of the drivers of inflation (demand vs profit margins vs wages vs other input costs vs inflation expectations etc). They don't admit that economists in the RBA and other places have actual model-based estimates of this.

The RBA knows the importance of wages as a driver. They also know that strong consumer demand gives companies pricing power to exploit.

By increasing interest rates and slowing down economic activity, particularly consumer demand, the RBA can take away some of that pricing power. The articles magically fail to mention this "economics 101" principle.

In passing, people seem to think the RBA is "evil" for saying things like wages growth needs to reduce, like the RBA is trying to slaughter the Aussie battler. It's also economics 101 that wages growth not driven by productivity growth predominately just ends up in inflation and hence ultimately zero real wages growth. The only sustainable, lasting driver of real wages growth is productivity growth.

The Labor party evidently realises this and Chalmers' essay discusses at length plans for the government to invest in productivity growth, since the last couple of decades seems to indicate that the private market won't really do it if left to its own devices.

That’s all well and good but articles published and presented on this forum have clearly shown that productivity has increased substantially over wages providing large corporations with further gains on top of price gouging. That’s a fact.

gsco's picture
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gsco Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 9:01am

Maybe bonza (house and energy prices are now falling?), but this is what’s wrong with the current debate, including those articles.

People seem to expect the RBA via interest rates to be able to fix every single economic and social problem in the country, and it’s getting slammed for not being able to.

It can influence some outcomes but not all. It’s doing what it can within its power and mandate using the tool it has available to it.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 9:08am

ASX still trading at 5 year highs, only marginal diminution of wealth effect for asset holders, if at all.

Basically anyone owning assets - especially bought in the last 10 years is still flying high.

Anyone with half a brain who parlayed those assets into solar and electric/hybrid vehicles ( I see heaps on the roads here) is now also largely insulated from energy price shocks.

Plug your Tesla into the house during the day when solar is full blast and you are living for free.

This is why Interest rate rises are barely touching aggregate demand in the economy- there is still immense amounts of wealth sloshing around.

I think the RBA just needs to be seen to be doing something, and this is really all they can do.

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bonza Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 9:15am

gsco - it's just a critique of the RBA method and role. i along with many others have repeatedly pointed out the role of government policy to control house, energy productivity etc.

No one's calling the rba evil or that they are solely responsible or crying poor me. not sure why you are interpreting it at that.

btw - its pretty clear any falls in prices thus far are negligible.

kaiser's picture
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kaiser Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 9:17am

Mass immigration won’t drop the cost of living in a finite (and under supplied) environment. It will increase it. Demand for goods won’t decrease, it will increase. Same for housing, energy, healthcare, and so on. New Australians will enter the same high cost of living that the rest are enduring. Their expectations re wages will be commensurate. Unless they’re willing to live a more frugal life…

Granted it isn’t wages that would be the instigator of the spiral - it would be prices. But the feedback loop would still look the same eventually

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kaiser Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 9:19am

Yes you’re right FR there is heaps of money still floating. Even the sheer number of those waiting for the crash so they can get in will place yet another floor under it. This could take quite a while to play out.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 9:24am

Bonza try productivity per capita, that one's falling. We're just jamming so many more in.

FR agree on the insulation by solar/hybrids. Doesn't stop the food bills though.
"This is why Interest rate rises are barely touching aggregate demand in the economy- there is still immense amounts of wealth sloshing around."
Yes, just got to see boomer in-laws drop just shy of 200K on one of those RAM trucks, all decked out for camping as a mighty tow rig and painted like Mad Max2. With an enormous van. If you think about it, it's the ultimate way to one-up those doing the lap with a newish big Cruiser and 24ft dual axle caravan. The more they spend, the more pressure for their kids' mortgage payments to go up.

mowgli's picture
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mowgli Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 9:35am

gsco - I guess it depends the extent to which certain lead and lag indicator variables are weighted and just as importantly, why. A model input using RRP-style data, if weighted significantly, is going to skew things. The consensus view is retail price data rises due to demand (greedy consumers!) or supply (generally cost input increases)..... Of course, what's now been proven is the price rises can also come, at least in part if not in whole, from a campaign of corporate profiteering that uses cost input increases as rhetorical cover. Can you find anything from the RBA that acknowledges this?

Debates based on nominal wages are almost totally irrelevant. Real wages are all that should really matter. A nominal positive won't help you pay the bills if it amounts to a real negative, thus nor will it fuel inflation. I'm sure you know that but just pointing it out anyway.

I'm still convinced what we're hearing (i.e., everything excl. the actual rate movements) from the RBA is just talk designed to curb behaviour. AND, an attempt to put some margin into rates (relative to 0%) so that they actually have something to cut again when the recession they're about to cause hits.

Struggling to find a graph showing real wages, this is the latest I could find and it's probably too old (but not really): https://public.tableau.com/views/Wagesgrowth/Percentdash?:embed=y&:showV...

Another common sound bite is that productivity is falling and workers are to blame... Funny, productivity seems to have been on a bit of tear and it's workers losing out, not business. https://www.sydney.edu.au/dam/corporate/images/news-and-opinion/news/202...

And, perhaps the coup de grace? The RBA's recent track record (Lowe became deputy in 2012 and governor in 2016) at forecasting wage growth: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2017/mar/images/graph-0317-...

Me wonders how good Professor Lowe really is at his job, or whether his careful management of the economy has really been just/mostly the result of external macro factors. If the deputy and head honcho in a big corporate had a record like that they'd already have been shown the door by the Board.

Now, let's go back to that Nominal Wage data and the RBA's fretting over its impact on inflation.... as evident by this graph, there doesn't appear (at least, when using eyeballs) much in the way of a significant correlation between inflation and nominal wages, let alone a cause-effect relationship. Indeed, when inflation does shoot up it appears nominal wages need to have an extended period of increase FIRST, before that happens... which of course, is not what we're seeing in the most recent results. Indeed, there's plenty there showing wages can be growing at a decent clip, well ahead of core inflation. https://i1.wp.com/bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2022...

For the sake of disclosure (I did this already a few months ago), I haven't seen many here do it, and I'll show my hand.... but I've got a massive....mortgage (had to sell and move due to job change, unfortunately to an area that required a doubling of what had been a pretty small mortgage for a property bought two postcodes removed from our preferred area because that's what prudence looks like, but couldn't be avoided now)... and inflation means fuck all to me and nobody in my cohort (elder millennial) cares either. 10% increase in groceries? So what. That's not a huge chunk of our monthly budget. Fuel? Meh, I bought a fuel efficient car a while ago. I keep hearing from the RBA that "inflation is a scourge that hurts people!!! It must be stopped!!!" but nobody I know, including the Boomers and Gen X'ers around me, have been hurt by inflation. They've barely noticed it. The oldies I know? They're doing fine. They're pretty much self-funded. It's rate increases that are hurting everyone I talk to (yes, a bubble I know). What about pensioners that are renting? That's an aged pension problem then. Indeed, I heard a big brain economist from Scotland argue that there's merit in considering inflation to be self correcting if left alone. That is to say, don't do a Germany circa 1930s or Zimbabwe circa 2005 and turn on the money printer and make it worse. When price increases reach a certain point that hurts, demand is curbed, especially in a system like ours where there are structural mechanisms (anti-union policies and laws and pro-immigration policies mainly) to curb wage growth.

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mowgli Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 9:45am

The consensus here seems to be those feeling the pain the most are the younger cohorts, Gen Y (me) and Gen Z.... You know what else those cohorts tend to be? Young families.

#1 cause of divorce? Financial stress.

Big cause of domestic violence? Financial stress.

Big reason women get to pension age without much wealth? Divorce.

Big reason boys and men "fall in with the wrong crowd"? Divorce (dad not around or in jail for DV crime).

Big reason boys become men that commit DV? Saw Dad do it.

Two biggest reasons kids struggle in school and go on to struggle in life? Financial stress at home and exposure (victim or witness) to DV...

I'm not worried because we've personally worked really hard over the last decade to build up significant reserves by getting into reasonably high paying sectors and semi-chasing the money. When I look at "average savings account balance" amongst these two cohorts, I am dismayed.

I realise those social issues (which, become economic issues) aren't within the RBA's remit (not saying they don't care personally). But the way things are going, and on top of everything that's gone on with those due to COVID, it's not going to be pretty.

I think it's fair to lay a lot of the blame at the feet of Coalition governments and to some extent the Neolibs that have infiltrated the ALP.

gsco's picture
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gsco Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 9:56am

soggydog, wages tend to track productivity over the long term as expected:

and productivity tended to beat corporate profits up to 2016/17, with profits then outstripping productivity until last yr, when both productivity and profits have fallen quite significantly:

One thing I imagine in all this, and which mowgli mentioned a few days ago, is if Australia wasn't completely privatised. If we still had universal and cheap/free health, education, aged and child care, and if a lot of energy/electricity was still govt provided, then the govt could act as a shock absorber and dampen the impact of inflation.

Privatising everything has left us at the mercy of the whims of global markets.

People might argue that the private sector is better (more efficient, better quality, etc) at providing all these things. But I think the Nordic countries prove that argument to be complete bullshit.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 9:56am

v. true.

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Island Bay Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 10:47am
freeride76 wrote:

v. true.

That was my experience growing up in Denmark. The last few years in NZ, however, have been a glaring example of how large, centralised govt agencies have turned into bloated monsters going nowhere and getting nothing done.

Makes me think that there is both a critical ratio of employees/population that must not be passed, and a 'right' way of running these big entities. I know from second hand experience that a lot of time/man hours is spent in meetings making sure nothing is done that would sin against the orthodoxy, and very little actual productive work is done.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 11:13am

v. true

v. true

mowgli and freeride

stiil so much money sloshing, and to slosh around

and all 'the pain' intended to fix stuff, barely touches anyone I know, who aren't super wealthy, but have worked hard, have buffers, and seem immune to incremental increases in daily living costs

seems the levers just don't work like they used to, seems the figures just don't work like they used to...

in a society like now, with such wide disparity in terms of 'haves' and 'have nots'

(Im just lucky Im a 'have not much' and don't care... ahhhh the life of a surfer...)

I'm not an RBA basher, and frankly, Im quite surprised at some of the bashing going on... and do think some o it a bit 'embarrassing'

...but jimmy chalmers seemed to be cautiously reserving his judgement on Lowe the other day, and wouldn't be drawn on the 'populism' like opinions getting around...

I don't understand it all like you guys, but seems to me he's just getting a lot of pent up hate and disdain for his 'rates won't rise' comment from not long ago

and, he's doing what he can, doing what he'supposed to do... according to the brief, and the theory....

but the theory (and the numbers) just don't work the sane, and just don't add up...

in the modern context, where the manipulations and massaging have drifted well into new territory, all exaccerbated by the pandemic, and corona cash

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 11:23am

agree on the govt shock absorber comment gsco. Down here Dan has started a new renewable SEC

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flollo Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 11:24am
Island Bay wrote:
freeride76 wrote:

v. true.

That was my experience growing up in Denmark. The last few years in NZ, however, have been a glaring example of how large, centralised govt agencies have turned into bloated monsters going nowhere and getting nothing done.

Makes me think that there is both a critical ratio of employees/population that must not be passed, and a 'right' way of running these big entities. I know from second hand experience that a lot of time/man hours is spent in meetings making sure nothing is done that would sin against the orthodoxy, and very little actual productive work is done.

I read somewhere the other day that NZ has the most unaffordable child care system in the world? I was quite surprised by that information, I was sure that Jacinta-led government would put this issue on top of the list and get it sorted.

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sypkan Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 1:08pm

time to indulge in a bit of CB bashing...

thinking about wages and productivity (and fair return for effort...)

and some article commentators recently pointing out the CB's have developed a bit of a 'god complex' - through a sustained lengyhy period of unprecedented econimic growth - where, realistically, it's questionable how much they could have possibly gotten wrong.... until recently...

I think this article is onto something

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-new-era#google_vignette

time for the boomers - and their orthodoxy - to give it up, get out of the way, and make some space...

before they totally gut the lemon

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velocityjohnno Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 1:24pm

from article above

"The idea that the past 30 years were not a permanent era but an anomaly that's come to an end doesn't compute for everyone who has only experienced the "glorious 30" years of cheap energy, soaring assets and falling prices due to hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization."

If you look back to the end of the last globalisation (1914), there was the free trade of the Pax Britannica and the challenge of Imperial Germany, the trade barriers going up (like 'Imperial Preference' of 1905), the end of an era being expressed as the feeling 'fin de siecle' (and hello, Titanic), and then eventually conflict. That last globalisation saw an incredible amount of free trade and growth occur, perhaps more so than our current 75+ year run. History teaches that these things, they come and go.

flollo's picture
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flollo Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 1:29pm

I just saw this about the US:

Nearly 1/3 of home purchases last year were all cash — an 8% increase from 2021.

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flollo Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 2:49pm
sypkan wrote:

time for the boomers - and their orthodoxy - to give it up, get out of the way, and make some space...

And go where? That's just pure fantasy. I'm not a boomer but if I was I definitely would not 'get out of the way'. I would protect everyone I know and everything I have with all the tools at my disposal. That's just reality and it will stay like that in the foreseeable future.

That doesn't mean that I agree with many things boomers do. Blaming young people for buying smashed avo instead of houses is the ultimate idiocy. But what's even crazier is lumping millions of different individuals with different attributes into one group based on age and then calling for them to 'clear space'. That's just extremism.

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sypkan Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 4:54pm

I was half joking flollo

but only half...

my little line kinda contradicts the article I posted anyway, as boomers saw the low growth, high inflation period that precedes the last 30 years of (largely) unbroken sustained growth and low inflation...

but they have also reaped all the benefits, and appear totally indoctrinated into the current paradigm of thinking, that's doing the same thing over and over, trying to squeeze more and more juice out of that spluttering lemon...

they also have geared the system to benefit themselves incredibly

and, they are the ones that privatised everything, casualised the work force, stripped back numerous workers rights and benefits (some rightly so), gamed the tax system, and benefitted / profitted from all of the above...

gen xers just had to suck it all up... there was practically no debate, it just was...

millenials did alright, as the above reforms kicked in, with a minor golden / goldilocks period developing - be it by accident or design...

and gen z just seem a bit dark, and to be getting ripped off, inheriting the ineviatable downturn and shit storm that is to follow...

I don't really hate boomers, much, but they can appear to be incredibly arrogant, stubborn, dismissive and selfish at times... just the human condition perhaps..

but a big thing I see about it all, regards privatisation, and welfare... it would seem the not too distant future will see development of a period with no pension whatsoever - or at a minimum, one not enough to live on... (some argue we're already there)

re. privatisation, the boomers oversaw the dismantling of the state systems across the board, ...argued to be more efficient, and to make it all more sustainable...

the result has produced a two tiered system that offers incredibly high standard of services for those that can afford it (subsidised by government) be it in the private health system, or things like the 'my aged care' system. and an incredibly substandard experience for those on what's left of the government system, where once 'basic' services, have incredibly long waiting lists or no access at all

you're right, boomers aren't going anywhere, and why should they?

my point is, they have reaped the best of a golden age (state system), and privatised an alarming array of state services - which has resulted in a (short term) rolls royce system for themselves - that most people can see is neither fair, nor sustainable... and are still clutching at the levers of power to maintain this little wonderland they have created for the very short term future, with seemingly lttle concern, vision, or forsight for the nightmare on the horizon...

gens. z and y are inheriting mountains of debt, for a system that appears to be bordering on to life support status on so many fronts ... and corona just cranked it all along another notch or three...

I really cannot see the western world sustaining this current trajectory at all.

oz might... being 'the lucky country' and all... but uk, europe, the US etc...

cannot see it at all

something needs to change

mowgli's picture
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mowgli Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 5:07pm

Last year I pulled the numbers (roughly) together on all the rorts and subsidies that prop up for-profit entities in Australia. At least the really big ones. I'll see if I can find it.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 8:11pm
mowgli wrote:

Last year I pulled the numbers (roughly) together on all the rorts and subsidies that prop up for-profit entities in Australia. At least the really big ones. I'll see if I can find it.

Kind of a pointless exercise unless you also work out the benefit from subsides etc that encourage investment.

For instance the government might encourage mining exploration and mining investment through subsidies, but what they put in they get back ten fold through all kinds of things like land rents, mining royalties, tax, company, GST, payroll, then there is direct employment and indirect employment and then all kind of flow on effects to communities in the area or nearest big towns, these flow on effects are not just short term but also long term.

For example a guy i use to work with on the Sunny Coast got a mining job in north QLD, did the fly in fly out thing for a while but then decided to relocate closer with family, bought a house keep working for years in mining then decided to open a retail business, heaps of people like him that make these places and economies boom, and it starts from the government encouraging investment.

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flollo Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 10:27pm

@sypkan I can’t buy into this narrative. To be fully transparent, if we were to use generational definition strictly I would be a millennial with boomer parents. My in laws - also boomers and so are many other family members. I would find it ridiculous to be angry with boomers, bitch about it online and then go and have a dinner with my father in law. And feel resentful towards him because he bought his house decades ago for like $15k. Dude was a concreter for 40+ years and I reckon he should thoroughly enjoy the rest of his life. He earned it. And the taxes he paid far exceed the benefits he received. The last thing he needs are some kids trolling him online. Anyone doing that should go and screed concrete first and tell me what they think.

Same with most other boomers I know. All hardcore workers who built this country. I have nothing but appreciation and respect for what they achieved in their lifetimes. I’m struggling to see the connection between these people and all those issues you highlighted. Did some members of their generation screw things? Absolutely. But blaming the whole generation is grossly inappropriate. And to impose the victim mentality onto the younger generation due to some inferior complex towards boomers is absolutely ridiculous.

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sypkan Saturday, 11 Feb 2023 at 12:12am

flollo, I'm not resentful, and I'm most certainly not bitching about concreters

I'm having a half tongue in cheek shot at your phillip lowe's, and a high end public service / political and banking class, that seem to actually believe they're worth what they're currently being paid... as they run this lemon into the ground... leaving a trail of debt and destruction in their wake... with seemingly little regard for what comes behind them...

with respect, I don't think you've enjoyed the 'pleasure' of watching the dismantling of australia's egalitarianism, and a state system that once more resembled the much heralded nordic countries and the better parts of europe, ...rather than the US corpro state we are now rushing headstrong towards...

that's all

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sypkan Saturday, 11 Feb 2023 at 12:44am

and fwiw, I've screeded my fair share of concrete... never in a paid capacity...

but what I may lack in volume of work / experience, I've more than made up for by mixing by hand :)

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AlfredWallace Saturday, 11 Feb 2023 at 9:29am
velocityjohnno wrote:

agree on the govt shock absorber comment gsco. Down here Dan has started a new renewable SEC

Velocityjohnno. Hi mate. Yep, he’s ahead of the pack with regards to energy.

Daily I hear and see the whining about the cost of living, especially energy costs. GET OFF FOSSIL FUELS for fuck sake. STOP giving your hard earned to energy companies.
Take up any state or federal rebates and get connected to Solar PV’s, small home two blade wind turbines (runs all your 12V needs such as LED down lights),solar hot water systems, heat pumps, storage batteries etc. There's plenty of incentives (money) available to do all this, just enquire for fucks sake.
This is not a difficult exercise at all, it’s simply a change in mindset, stop thinking you are reliant and need to be connected to the grid.
If you are connected to the grid, stop whinging about the poor feed in tariff you get for sending energy surplus to your needs back into it.
I’ve said it before it’s not about the money you think you may make from your set up. It’s about doing the RIGHT thing and get OFF fossil fuel derived energy providers, they’ll drain you for life and their businesses will drain the life out of all living things if we are not careful. It’s not the 1950’s or 60’s anymore, archaic as it was, it’s time to fully move on.
At home we have own water supply, septic system, grow all our veggies etc, have chooks, their waste goes back into food production, hardly any bills at all, just mobile phone, no energy bills at all, only annual cost is rates, $2K.
I choose to surf at least twice a week and work one day a week for myself (ex.tradie) get $500, i still have a little less than half of that left at the end of a fortnight. Limit your spending on shit and crap, make your own coffee and sandwiches, you don’t need much money if you don’t spend much money, pretty simple. Still manage to go on a surf trip to the Ments on a yearly basis, once again its a change in mindset, $100 per week placed in a sock in my top drawer, come years end, $5K saved, its about priorities.
Ive had rebuttals previously by other commenters stating it’s all about the money when it comes to solar costs etc. Crap.If your first and foremost thought is about how much do i stand to make ($) from solar etc. well your not doing it for the right reason.
It’s about you as an individual or family, priorities, nothing else.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 12:25pm

Alfred that's a superb post. I'm moving in the same direction, you don't need so much of that shit and in fact it holds you back and nails you into a middle class debt treadmill if you let it. Covid was a real wakeup, I built productive things, listened to the wind, watched the stars and I don't need so much of the BS that would fill a life and take from a bank account. Also watched the world pause from the rampant population ponzi consumerism services economy, and it was refreshing. We planted a fruiting garden and it's absolutely prolific, down here you put something in the ground and most things go mental. Would love to talk more about how you make the dollars last. Still trying to arrange the heat pump solar at present, been away traveling in the meantime. Have begun enquiries on turning the surf beast into E85, too.

I found this guy, retired in 5 years on student/researcher earnings:

http://earlyretirementextreme.com/how-i-became-financially-independent-i...

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Robwilliams Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 1:17pm

Alfred Wallace nailing it, love it when you lead from the front Alfred Wallace with positive reinforcement of possible ideas for others that you and others have undertaken. Wisdom through acquired experience. Either through necessity or interest.

There are many options out there worth looking at if interested and if able to implement. Alfred no doubt is a wealth of knowledge in this area. He's no doubt living proof it can be done as are many others. Hope you continue to enjoy your ments visits Alfred. all the best and thanks for leading from the front as you and many other do regardless. Here's to positive progression be it individual or global and where ever it takes us. House prices aside, I continue to be inspired by reinforcement of possible positive changes regardless the issues being discussed. rad stuff,
Quote: It’s about you as an individual or family, priorities, nothing else.

Still enjoy reading all the comments in this thread as it evolves under the knowledgable contributors in this field too, Alway informative and interesting. Love the way crew break it down and ideas being put forth despite the current situations facing many through out Australia.

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bonza Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 1:22pm

Nahh it’s a pompous post. Sounds like victim blaming to me (gsco loves it when I say that woke shit).

Alfred conveniently ignores
the declining trends in home ownership amongst all age groups especially the young comparatively vs previous generations. For those who do enter the market they are likely to be older with larger mortgages and less buffer for large upfront costs such as solar infrastructure. It’s called cash flow. Lastly thanks to the increasing landlord class and the buildings purpose built to service them e.g. shit 30 year old life span pre fab poor quality (black roofs; anti passive) buildings the upfront costs to make your new home energy efficient will be even greater. He also ignores that as we pump more people into this country the only way to build is up unless we cut down more of Alfred’s precious trees which means renters and home owners are at the mercy of Harry Triguboff and his mates which frankly don’t give a shit.

Government could address this with policy but of course they don’t with any real impact.

Other than that I agree with the general sentiment to get off the grid.

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goofyfoot Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 1:25pm
AlfredWallace wrote:
velocityjohnno wrote:

agree on the govt shock absorber comment gsco. Down here Dan has started a new renewable SEC

Velocityjohnno. Hi mate. Yep, he’s ahead of the pack with regards to energy.

Daily I hear and see the whining about the cost of living, especially energy costs. GET OFF FOSSIL FUELS for fuck sake. STOP giving your hard earned to energy companies.
Take up any state or federal rebates and get connected to Solar PV’s, small home two blade wind turbines (runs all your 12V needs such as LED down lights),solar hot water systems, heat pumps, storage batteries etc. There's plenty of incentives (money) available to do all this, just enquire for fucks sake.
This is not a difficult exercise at all, it’s simply a change in mindset, stop thinking you are reliant and need to be connected to the grid.
If you are connected to the grid, stop whinging about the poor feed in tariff you get for sending energy surplus to your needs back into it.
I’ve said it before it’s not about the money you think you may make from your set up. It’s about doing the RIGHT thing and get OFF fossil fuel derived energy providers, they’ll drain you for life and their businesses will drain the life out of all living things if we are not careful. It’s not the 1950’s or 60’s anymore, archaic as it was, it’s time to fully move on.
At home we have own water supply, septic system, grow all our veggies etc, have chooks, their waste goes back into food production, hardly any bills at all, just mobile phone, no energy bills at all, only annual cost is rates, $2K.
I choose to surf at least twice a week and work one day a week for myself (ex.tradie) get $500, i still have a little less than half of that left at the end of a fortnight. Limit your spending on shit and crap, make your own coffee and sandwiches, you don’t need much money if you don’t spend much money, pretty simple. Still manage to go on a surf trip to the Ments on a yearly basis, once again its a change in mindset, $100 per week placed in a sock in my top drawer, come years end, $5K saved, its about priorities.
Ive had rebuttals previously by other commenters stating it’s all about the money when it comes to solar costs etc. Crap.If your first and foremost thought is about how much do i stand to make ($) from solar etc. well your not doing it for the right reason.
It’s about you as an individual or family, priorities, nothing else.

I’m just impressed you save 20% of your weekly income for a surf trip. Well done!
I’m assuming you’re mortgage free Alfred?

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velocityjohnno Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 1:55pm

Goofy that link I posted, the guy was saving 80%!

Bonza you have good counter-points - the bar is just waaay to high, before we begin discussing reducing footprint.

Is anyone doing new 2x1 free standing villas? For a cheaper entry? Anyone doing new duplexes, like were the entry properties in the 70s? Grew up in a couple of these. Mum and dad were extending for more bedrooms! I know the local armstrong creek stuff they tend to jam 4+x2+ into a very small block - no yard - and then charge an eye watering amount at present, so that doesn't help our kids. We started with a 2 x 1 here, and over the years extended it to 3x1 as the kids got older and we could afford it. Now 3 x 1 1/2 lol... it's been a squeeze, but it was modest start and within the budget at the time.

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Robwilliams Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 2:11pm
bonza wrote:

Nahh it’s a pompous post. Sounds like victim blaming to me (gsco loves it when I say that woke shit).

Alfred conveniently ignores
the declining trends in home ownership amongst all age groups especially the young comparatively vs previous generations. For those who do enter the market they are likely to be older with larger mortgages and less buffer for large upfront costs such as solar infrastructure. It’s called cash flow. Lastly thanks to the increasing landlord class and the buildings purpose built to service them e.g. shit 30 year old life span pre fab poor quality (black roofs; anti passive) buildings the upfront costs to make your new home energy efficient will be even greater. He also ignores that as we pump more people into this country the only way to build is up unless we cut down more of Alfred’s precious trees which means renters and home owners are at the mercy of Harry Triguboff and his mates which frankly don’t give a shit.

Government could address this with policy but of course they don’t with any real impact.

Other than that I agree with the general sentiment to get off the grid.

I was referring to the off grid comments etc, enjoying your ideas also. We've seen long term policy has been designed to protect various political parties and interests. I don't have the solution but as I said it is interesting seeing the ideas being discussed here. Plenty of angles, ideas and views yours included. all the best

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AlfredWallace Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 7:00pm
bonza wrote:

Nahh it’s a pompous post. Sounds like victim blaming to me (gsco loves it when I say that woke shit).

Bonza. Hi. thanks for your nice subtle reply. Pompous my arse, if you met me you’d retract that comment immediately, id break your neck, rip your head off and shit down your throat .Victim blaming ? Meh.

Isn’t it about time that we as individuals or families make strident commitments to ourselves to try for a better world, many commenters on SN are quick to go to the easy target of blaming the government for lack of this or that. We are becoming the land of so called ‘entitlement’, need to pick ourselves up of the canvas an do it for one and all.

We are a grossly consumptive society across most areas of our lives. Where do we learn about these products, mostly from media targeted at us, (we are way more gullible than most people think) but its mainly TV, ‘The Global and Highly addictive Drug’ that it is. We consistently buy shit, good or bad (have you ever noticed that the things that cost the most are generally the unhealthiest for us or the planet ) i.e. KFC, McDonalds, Hungry Jacks ,Cigarettes, Beer etc.and in most cases not really needed at all to LIVE.
Next time you are inside your house, take a look under your kitchen sink, laundry cupboards or bathroom shelves and check out and count how many cleaning products that have been accumulated. Way too many, I did not buy one of them, or did someone say to me, you must buy this product its ‘amazing’, those products are there because my wife watches too much TV.
I vehemently argue with her that none of those products will do any better job than simple ‘elbow grease’. Marketing/Advertising 1, my wife 0.
Society spends money on shit unwanted/unneeded goods all the time. So Bonza, the more i type the more money I’m saving for your solar set-up, by end of story, I’ll have you completely set up for a FOSSIL FUEL FREE life.
As a society, we as individuals are shaped by all manner of advertising and marketing. Why on a daily basis doesn’t your average punter, me , you or even all of us wear Sari’s, Kaftans, Tartan kilts etc. ? We don’t choose the clothes we wear daily, society does ( we have huge inferior complexes and dare to look any different from the next punter, so we dress to ‘fit in, feel accepted’ , just look around, most office people are smartly dressed, may wear a suit and or tie, tradies dress in khaki like carpenters, landscapers, builders etc, plumbers and electricians in mostly blue gear, painters with white overalls (and a dart hanging out of the mouth, gotta have a ciggie whilst painting, how else could you do that every day ).We are so removed from our original eco/bio systems and have mostly lost our way and our connectivity to it and the other organisms that we use to interact with. (And as a nation, we have the audacity to ‘shit can’ Aboriginal folk for wanting to remain close and connected to their’s ), we are so fucked up and have much to learn but we won’t, because our snouts are always in the credit trough, oink, oink). Why do i or many of us surfers dress the way we do, we do it because we think its pretty cool or groovy to let everyone around us know that we are surfers, nothing wrong with that, its just fact. Otherwise id be standing at Bird Rock lookout in my Kaftan looking up towards Steps or Boobs and all the while assume I’m being ridiculed by others who are also checking the surf.We ‘surfers’ have oversized egos and inflated opinions of ourselves. As a teenager, youth and young lad surfer, id always be strutting around in Quiksilver t-shirts thinking I’m as cool as because I’m putting it out there that I’m a surfer, in reality i was stupidly paying through the nose for a piece of stitched and logo emblazoned cotton, freely advertising for Quikkie and indirectly keeping another sweat shop of slave labour open in S.E.Asia.
We spend any amount of money to fit in or feel accepted.
Again Bonza, my point being, is we are just little credit rats running as fast as we can inside that little wheel, trying to keep ahead of our debts.
If you want to do all the things in my aforementioned rant about solar etc. it’s totally doable without all the constraints you mentioned. Stop wasting money and prioritise it to good causes not one with shit outcomes for you or the environment.
Living only requires basic items, water, food and energy (if you’d like to change its original form), we’ve moved so far onwards from living with the basics, we’ve innocently become a competitive society, always trying to keep up with one and other and this comes at a cost, spending money you don’t have or haven’t earn’t yet. Just the scenario banks and creditors love.We fall victim to this fast paced so called progression. Australia’s currently in a real mess and we all know it.
So for fuck sake, let’s do something about it and reject FOSSIl FUEL ENERGY.
I’ve recycled everything possible all my life, cared for where I/we lived, planted more than 1.5million trees, revegetated many parts of the Otways and have a very tiny carbon footprint than most. Again, it’s about priorities, yours may be a mother fucker caravan, mines a society removed from the nipples of fossil fuel energy companies.
I’m now starting on a small scale a little business converting shipping containers into bespoke fully transportable abodes using nothing but waste and a love for a cleaner world.
For those who want to know, i was a self employed tradie for 33 years, worked my arse off working 6 days a week and two nights per week teaching botany. 18 months ago we eliminated our mortgage and its a wonderful feeling not to have hardly any bills because we use the best thermonuclear reactor known, you may have heard of it Bonza, the SUN. AW.

Alfred conveniently ignores
the declining trends in home ownership amongst all age groups especially the young comparatively vs previous generations. For those who do enter the market they are likely to be older with larger mortgages and less buffer for large upfront costs such as solar infrastructure. It’s called cash flow. Lastly thanks to the increasing landlord class and the buildings purpose built to service them e.g. shit 30 year old life span pre fab poor quality (black roofs; anti passive) buildings the upfront costs to make your new home energy efficient will be even greater. He also ignores that as we pump more people into this country the only way to build is up unless we cut down more of Alfred’s precious trees which means renters and home owners are at the mercy of Harry Triguboff and his mates which frankly don’t give a shit.

Government could address this with policy but of course they don’t with any real impact.

Other than that I agree with the general sentiment to get off the grid.

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goofyfoot Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 7:29pm

Sounds like you’re in a good position AW and worked hard for it.

Landscaper?

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AlfredWallace Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 7:47pm
goofyfoot wrote:

Sounds like you’re in a good position AW and worked hard for it.

Landscaper?

Goofyfoot. Hi mate, apologies for not replying to your past comment.Mortgage free yes. Landscaper yes, concretor, bricklayer, and have for the last few years mostly been a carpenter, but I’ll do anything that requires skills using your brain and hands. Never been in a gym in my life, the free work out at work on a daily basis coupled with surfing = fit as fiddle and strong as an ox, wouldn’t swap it for quids. Revegetation business inside my landscape business, teacher for 7 years at a couple of Uni’s.
But, birds and plants have been my life since around the age of 5-6 maybe, hence my desire to improve the environment mostly for those two biota. Father told me i had a nail bag and hammer at aged 5, im glad i did now.
How are you going by the way ? We had some nice waves of late, in recess at present but im looking forward to the end of the month when it mostly starts to happen again, hopefully when that little pesky female La Niña leaves us for good.Good to chat.AW.

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bonza Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 7:53pm

Haha. You sound like a real batshit crazy mofo Alfred.

I like that.

Here’s 2 tips mate. I didn’t call you pompous. Just your argument. There is a difference. I could’ve said it was fuckn dumb but i was trying to be polite.
2nd tip. Stay away from the internet. It’s not working for you.

Hit me up at #lickmyballsalfred

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AlfredWallace Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 8:01pm
bonza wrote:

Haha. You sound like a real batshit crazy mofo Alfred.

I like that.

Here’s 2 tips mate. I didn’t call you pompous. Just your argument. There is a difference. I could’ve said it was fuckn dumb but i was trying to be polite.
2nd tip. Stay away from the internet. It’s not working for you.

Hit me up at #lickmyballsalfred

Bonza. What are you doing in your life that may contribute to a cleaner environment, got kids ?

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bonza Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 8:16pm
AlfredWallace wrote:
bonza wrote:

Haha. You sound like a real batshit crazy mofo Alfred.

I like that.

Here’s 2 tips mate. I didn’t call you pompous. Just your argument. There is a difference. I could’ve said it was fuckn dumb but i was trying to be polite.
2nd tip. Stay away from the internet. It’s not working for you.

Hit me up at #lickmyballsalfred

Bonza. What are you doing in your life that may contribute to a cleaner environment, got kids ?

Alfred. It’s none of your business. How about you stop being so thin skinned and offended and think about the argument. I could be Charlie Veron or Gina Rhinehart.

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AlfredWallace Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 9:21pm
bonza wrote:
AlfredWallace wrote:
bonza wrote:

Haha. You sound like a real batshit crazy mofo Alfred.

I like that.

Here’s 2 tips mate. I didn’t call you pompous. Just your argument. There is a difference. I could’ve said it was fuckn dumb but i was trying to be polite.
2nd tip. Stay away from the internet. It’s not working for you.

Hit me up at #lickmyballsalfred

Bonza. What are you doing in your life that may contribute to a cleaner environment, got kids ?

Alfred. It’s none of your business. How about you stop being so thin skinned and offended and think about the argument. I could be Charlie Veron or Gina Rhinehart.

Bonza, my apologies for my first up preamble reply. Tired, hadn’t eaten and writing on an empty stomach, no malice intended. I wear my heart on my sleeve when it comes to all things environmental.
You are totally within your rights to pass whatever comments you like, just like we both do.
Of the two last mentioned individuals in your comments, there’s only one I’d hang with. All the best.AW

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bonza Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 9:34pm

No worries Alfred.no apologies needed. All the best mate. Love the passion.

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donweather Wednesday, 15 Feb 2023 at 8:41am
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AndyM Wednesday, 15 Feb 2023 at 8:58am

Yep, real slow sales around here and some big drops in sale prices.
Easy 15% drop in some areas but still way above pre-Covid price.

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batfink Wednesday, 15 Feb 2023 at 9:40am

Just going back to the RBA, there have been a few articles that touch on some of what I see as grotesque holes in their policy thinking. Here are two of interest.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-13/reserve-bank-australia-pushing-us...

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/interest-rates-lowe-s-not-th...

Was going to write a few longer responses to why gsco’s faith in the RBA economists was misplaced. These will do as a first part of that.

Gsco, I have no doubts or questions about the intelligence of the PhD’s working in the modelling departments in the RBA and Treasury. These guys are smart as, but their intelligence is narrow and sharp rather than rounded and all-encompassing.

Their models should form part of the advice provided to the RBA board, but that body should be dominated by people who aren’t ‘pointy-heads’, and who have enough nous to know when to ignore the theories and the modelling.

The NAIRU is a theoretical piece of absolute bullshit that has been swallowed whole by the gullible orthodox economists. It is a furphy.

Besides, only a theoretical economist would run an experiment based on the misery of 100’s of thousands of unemployed so that ‘the theoretical economy’ would work for the masses.

If I get time I’ll expand on these thoughts later. Essentially, apart from the RBA chief’s interest rate howler the bigger issue is that they set policy like orthodox economists, rather than as humans.

Groupthink!