Maldives late May forecast
Hi mate.
A little far out to look too much ahead towards your period, but in saying that there looks to be a good pulse of S/SE groundswell just before you arrive and then smaller amounts of SE swell for the rest of the period.
Don's got a good idea for this area.
Central will take both SW & SE swells. So, if you've got a good guide they should be putting you on the western atolls when a SW swell is running and the eastern atolls during the SE swells.
So you're looking for two different weather patterns.
Keep in mind that SW swells will still have to bend somewhere between 90 & 180 degrees to get into some of the spots in the western atolls - there are more exposed spots but you'll need an agreeable local wind.
I don't think winds will be favourable this time of year to hit the western side of the central atolls will they?
Sing out about 8-10 days out and I'll take a look at the charts for ya. If you're only surfing the eastern side of the central atolls then you'll def want the swell direction to be east of south.
Sorry Don, not the western side of the central atolls, the western atolls ie Thaa & Dhaalu. There are plenty of spots that are still offshore in the predominant westerly wind.
Some of these spots the swell will need to wrap almost 180 degrees but they do it with surprising consistency.
Thanks for the heads up. I'll bump up the thread about a week before the trip
Bumping the thread back up. About 1 week out from the trip and singing out for Don and any others who are familiar with the area to help with any forecast for May 25-June 4th. You guys are the best, thanks for the info and help.
Bit busy with real work at the moment, but just took a really quick look at the forecast and it's not looking great unfortunately. I can't see much over 2-3ft SE mid range swell at best and that's more so for the end of your first week (smaller again at the start). So unless you can get over to the western atolls to get some of the better (slightly bigger) S/SW groundswells as suggested above (although again I question the local winds at these breaks this time of year), I wouldn't be expecting any big surf on the eastern atolls for at least the first week of your stay at this stage.
I'll try and take a more in depth look later this week.
What boat are you on? and are you only hanging around the central? ie flying in and out of Laamu?
We're only hanging around the centrals, flying in and out of Thaa actually, on the Horizon 2. I looked last night as well and the Indian Ocean looks to be pretty sleepy which is unfortunate. Hopefully we'll get some surf but expectations are not high at this time.
That's a nice boat and skipper/crew. We did the southern atolls on the horizon 2 a few years back.
Glad to hear it. I'm in the States (Florida) and not too many people here have done the Maldives, so a good review is nice to hear. I really wanted an uncrowded trip for once, tired of the crowds. HEard the centrals were much quieter, but if the swell is small there may only be a few options which may get more crowded than I was expecting.
Hey SFW, I wouldn't consider the central atolls uncrowded but it is possible to get a session with only your boat. It just depends how many boats are down there at the time and if they're traveling north/south or just floating around. Just like anywhere else it can get crowded.
Flying into thaa you'll be looking for a SSW swell to start the trip. There's a great wave there, in a beautiful location, needs a decent swell to get moving though as it wraps 180 degrees on the open ocean swell.
Well, my last trips have been to Central America and have been crowded with 40 people on one sandbar peak at times, I can do that at home. But I also didn't want the North Male boats all at Sultans at one time. Hopefully this will be a good compromise.
When you say decent swell, what size are you talking about? I've never surfed the Indian Ocean so I have no frame of reference for swell heights. 3 ft at 9 seconds? 4 at 12?
If the swell needs to wrap at 180 degrees then it will need a reasonable period. I'd be guessing at least 12s +, but then if it's the SW groundswells CM is referring to, you'll easily get these swell periods from the Indian Ocean at the western atolls that CM refers too. I still question the winds this time of year at the western atolls, although it sounds as though CM is implying you're still surfing the SE to East facing locations of the western atolls?
Hey there SFW,
A good mate of mine surfed here a few weeks back the same day as the photos, is this beach in striking distance to yourself...!
Looks good;)
http://www.surfermag.com/photos/exposure-new-jersey/#58684146c1
Bingo Don!
SurferFuk,
New Jersey is about 1,000 miles north of where I live. We get totally different swell and wind patterns. I believe we got a little swell during that same time down here, but the storm was moving north out of our swell window. Looks good but cold. That's what it looks like here when it gets good, which is more often than people think Florida gets, especially up in the Jacksonville area (most north porrtion) where I live. Jacksonville is just out of the media spotlight here, like living away from the Gold Coast and other surf industry centers would be for you guys
Here's my thoughts based on latest forecasts. Hope ya get some fun uncrowded waves.
Tues 26th
Tiny 1-2ft SE swell at best. There’s a slightly better quality but very inconsistent 2-3ft SW groundswell running at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Wed 27th
Tiny 1-2ft SE swell at best. There’s a slightly better quality but very inconsistent 2-3ft SW groundswell running at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Thurs 28th
Tiny 1-2ft SE swell at best. Building and much better quality but inconsistent 3-5ft SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 3ft, maybe 4ft at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Friday 29th
New pulse of 2ft/2ft+ SE swell, maybe 2-3ft by the end of the day. Much better quality but inconsistent 4-5ft+ SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 3-4ft at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Sat 30th
2-3ft SE swell. Waning inconsistent 3-4ft+ SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 3ft/3ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Sun 31st
3-4ft SE swell. Waning inconsistent 2-3ft+ SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 2ft/2ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Mon 1st
3-4ft SE swell. New pulse of building very long range 2-4ft SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at SW facing breaks along the western atolls very late in the day. Smaller 2-3ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls with the upper end of this size range very late in the day.
Tues 2nd
2-3ft+ SE swell. Very long range 3-4ft+ SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 3ft/3ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Wed 3rd
2-3ft+ SE swell. Very long range 3-4ft+ SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 3ft/3ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls. SW groundswell waning throughout the day.
Thurs 4th
2-3ft+ SE swell. Waning very long range 2-3ft+ SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 2-3ft at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls. SW groundswell waning throughout the day.
Will be interested to see how that SSW swell fills in at Thaa or Dhaalu on the 27th to 29th. NOAA calling forerunners at 19sec and looks to be a great direction for some of those spots (almost straight S).
The problem with the central atolls is the large distance between spots. If you wanna move from the west to the east or visa versa you'll prob burn at least half a day doing so.
Add to that only a couple good spots on Thaa you have the choice of staying and waiting out the flat spell or spending half a day moving for a chance of waves elsewhere, then spending half a day coming back when the swell hits.
Apart from the 26th I'd be happy with that forecast.
Thanks Don, you're the man. I really appreciate the time you spend doing this for people you don't even know. I will definitely keep a log to let you know how the different swells fill in to help with your forecasting for the Centrals in the future.
Carpetman, we will be accessing Laamu and/or Meemu as well, so I don't know if that is a consideration, but I think those are like 6 hour cruises away, right? My friends who went on this boat before said they really liked Machines and Yin Yang, but I think they need more SE swell to work.
Thaa to Laamu is maybe 6hrs but thaa to meemu is a fair bit further, maybe 10hrs, but it really depends on your cruising speed and if your captain is being fuel conscious.
Laamu has got plenty of classic set ups, pretty much all need SE swell. Machines is a gem, so is Yin Yang and refugee's is great fun with a hairy finish to keep things from getting boring.
I put together a Maldives forecast spreadsheet some time ago. Just uses NOAA WW3 data, so limited to 180hrs but currently matches Don's forecast pretty well.
Here's a screenshot of the latest run...
looks like we will have some decent SE swell possibly around the Sun/Mon period, so hopefully we'll get to experience both Thaa and Laamu. May end up being a hard choice.
I'm really liking the look of that SE trade-swell for the start of June, persistent and a good size.
PS, nice work Carpetman!
Agreed Craig, looks like it should be great from the 30/31 through to the 5th, if the current forecast remains true, particularly around the 1st.
SFW, will post another snap of the forecast on the 24th before you go.
Yep also agree. Forecasts have upped the anti on that SE swell late in the trip. Will update the forecast above tomorrow but I'd say there's every likelihood of 4ft/4ft+ perhaps even the odd set close to 5ft at the exposed swell magnets facing SE.
Latest thoughts.
Tues 26th
Tiny 1-2ft SE swell at best. There’s a slightly better quality but very inconsistent 2-3ft S/SW groundswell running at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Wed 27th
Tiny 1-2ft SE swell at best. There’s a slightly better quality but very inconsistent 2-3ft S/SW groundswell running at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Thurs 28th
Tiny 1-2ft SE swell at best. There’s a slightly better quality but very inconsistent 2-3ft S/SW groundswell running at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Friday 29th
New pulse of 2-3ft SE swell. Building but inconsistent 3-4ft SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls by the end of the day. Smaller 2-3ft at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Sat 30th
2-3ft SE swell. Inconsistent 3-4ft SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 2-3ft at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Sun 31st
3-4ft+ SE swell with the upper end of this size more so late in the day. Waning inconsistent 2-3ft+ SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 2ft/2ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Mon 1st
3-4ft+ SE swell. New pulse of building long range 2-3ft+ SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at SW facing breaks along the western atolls very late in the day. Smaller 2-3ft at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls with the upper end of this size range very late in the day.
Tues 2nd
3-4ft+ SE swell. Long range 2-3ft+ SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 2-3ft at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Wed 3rd
3-4ft SE swell. Long range 2-3ft+ SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls, and more so late in the day. Smaller 2-3ft at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Thurs 4th
3-4ft SE swell waning throughout the day. Long range 3-4ft SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls, and more so late in the day. Smaller 3ft/3ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Not too shabby a forecast. First couple days fish/snorkel with mellow surf, then ramp up to the good stuff at the end. Little change-flying into/out of Laamu now, they moved the boat pickup spot.
What's everyone think about that SE swell starting Sunday? Still holding up for at least head high from then on?
Will update my forecast maybe later this morning but looks to be around the 3ft mark on Sunday but slowly building to 4ft/4ft+ by the end of your stay.
Latest run...
Make sure you're in Laamu when the SE swell hits at the end of the week but you should also get some good waves in Thaa on the 28-30th. The Thaa hotspot is more "fun" when compared to Laamu. So if you wanna get pitted you should be hanging around Laamu
Off to the airport. Stoked. Let you know how it turns out. You guys have been fantastic, thanks for the help
Let us know if you'll have internet access come lunch time tomorrow (Aussie time) as I'll update the forecast then if you do.
Nice don would be interested the forecast into June,
I will have access for sure. Look forward to the update don, thanks.
Carpet man-you've obviously spent a fair amount if time there, I appreciate the info.
soggydog wrote:Nice don would be interested the forecast into June,
Name ya dates and location and I'll see what I can do. Last time I looed there looked to be a solid S/SE swell arriving not long after SFW leaves.
North male atolls June 1st to 14 th. Thanks
SFW, latest forecast as per below. Given that GFS is pushing out the arrival of the bigger SE swell in the forecast period, this usually implies that it may not eventuate, so confidence on the bigger SE swell towards the end of your trip is still low at present.
Tues 26th
Around 2ft SE swell at the more exposed SE facing breaks. There’s a slightly better quality but very inconsistent 2ft/2ft+ S/SW groundswell running at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Wed 27th
Around 2ft SE swell at the more exposed SE facing breaks. There’s a slightly better quality but very inconsistent 2ft S/SW groundswell running at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Thurs 28th
Around 2ft SE swell at the more exposed SE facing breaks.
Friday 29th
New pulse of 2-3ft SE swell with the upper end of this size range late in the day. Building but inconsistent 3-4ft SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls by the end of the day. Smaller 2-3ft at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Sat 30th
Around 3ft SE swell. Inconsistent 3-4ft SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 2-3ft at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Sun 31st
2-3ft SE swell. Waning inconsistent 2-3ft+ SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls early morning. Smaller 2ft/2ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Mon 1st
New pulse of 3-4ft SE swell.
Tues 2nd
3-4ft SE swell. Two new S/SW groundswells arriving throughout the day. First one around 2-3ft with the second much bigger but also very much more inconsistent 3-4ft+ by the end of the day, with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 2-3ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Wed 3rd
3-4ft SE swell. Long range and very inconsistent 3-4ft+ S/SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 2-3ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
Thurs 4th
Around 4ft/4ft+ SE swell waning throughout the day. Long range and very inconsistent 3-4ft+ S/SW groundswell with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 2-3ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls. S/SW groundswell building late into the afternoon to 4-5ft with the upper end of this size range at the SW facing breaks along the western atolls. Smaller 3-4ft+ at the non-SW facing breaks of the western atolls.
soggydog wrote:North male atolls June 1st to 14 th. Thanks
North Male Atolls
Upper end of this size range at the SE swell magnets. Confidence on wave heights out past June 4th or so is still low due to forecast accuracy this far out.
Mon 1st
New pulse of 3-4ft SE swell.
Tues 2nd
3-4ft SE swell.
Wed 3rd
3-4ft SE swell.
Thurs 4th
Around 4ft/4ft+ SE swell waning throughout the day. There is a new pulse of S/SW groundswell arriving late in the day that may bend/refract into the North Male atolls (more so at the swell magnets).
Fri 5th
3-4ft SE swell, with the possibility of some similar sized but much more powerful S/SW groundswell which may bend/refract into the North Male atolls (more so at the swell magnets).
Sat 6th
3-4ft SE swell, building to 4ft/4ft+ very late in the day.
Sun 7th
4-5ft SE swell.
Mon 8th
4-5ft SE swell waning throughout the day.
Tues 9th
4ft/4ft+ SE swell.
Wed 10th
4ft/4ft+ SE swell.
Update from the field:
Tuesday-delayed, only got on boat that afternoon. Head high but really windy, poor conditions on Western atols.
Wednesday-flat on western atolls, no surf
Thursday-mainly waist to chest, occasional head high by afternoon but slightly inconsistent. Western atolls
Friday AM-really windy, chest high. Western atols
So not skunked but definitely below expectations. Especially with a boat load of French idiots on SUPs trying to clog the lineup. Only one other boat so far and they want to sit on top of us the whole time like lap dogs. Thank god they leave tomorrow back to Male.
Any word on that southeast swell for next week Or model run for this weekend?
I think I did say above in my earlier posts that winds would not be ideal for the exposed breaks of the western atolls at this time of year. Would be nice to know if the locations of the western atolls where you're surfing are SW facing breaks or more SE facing breaks such that the swell has to wrap/dilute when getting into these SE facing breaks.
Foreast for SE swell has dropped a tad. I'd be thinking around 3ft/3ft+ early next week, possibly building to 3-4ft late in the day on your last day (Thurs 4th). But again, these waves heights are at the exposed SE facing breaks. Smaller at more protected (sheltered from SE swell) locations.
They are more SE facing, so the swell is definitely diluted some. You can see bigger surf but the wind at those spots is truly not right, essentially unrideable. Right now the wind is straight west-if it was the normal SW it would be great. But the Frenchies just left, and we have it all to ourselves now, so with only 2 or 3 people in the water at a time it is pretty fun. Sets now head high, hopefully bigger for the tide change this afternoon.
Whats the name of the spot you've been surfing? If its the one I'm thinking of, the one that requires the swell to wrap almost 180, then SW wind would be good but exposed fringes will work better in a W.
Today and tomoz look like your best bet on Thaa but get over to Laamu when you can.
Here's the latest model run...
I didn't know about naming spots-not that it's a secret spot but I avoid it. We are exactly where you are thinking of. The outside isn't working because it is 20-25 knots right now, just white capping seas, completely shutting the outside down. We are heading to Laamu Sunday at first light and staying there until we leave Thursday night, so should be better there. Talking to the other boats both Male north and South are truly flat, ankle high. Southern atolls are 4-5 foot today, so hopefully that swell will filter in here on Sunday.
Agreed, just trying to figure out where you are. I think the 4-5ft southern atolls swell would have been the same shoulder to head high swell you were surfing in Thaa, it's only 120+ nautical miles from Gaafu to Thaa which would take 5 to 12hrs depending on swell period.
Anyway how are you getting on in Laamu?
Laamu has been great., we left for it on Saturday early and am glad we did. Head high for Sat and Sun with bigger sets, great form. Pretty much too ourselves. Really rough winds overnight and this AM (Monday), our anchor couldn't hold and we drifted halfway across the inside of the atoll in pretty big seas. Today biggest sets were 3 foot overhead, but majority 1-2 overhead. Really shifty though, hard to read, should be better tomorrow. If it stays in the head high plus range with good form I'll be very happy.
surfflatwaves wrote:I didn't know about naming spots-not that it's a secret spot but I avoid it. We are exactly where you are thinking of. The outside isn't working because it is 20-25 knots right now, just white capping seas, completely shutting the outside down. We are heading to Laamu Sunday at first light and staying there until we leave Thursday night, so should be better there. Talking to the other boats both Male north and South are truly flat, ankle high. Southern atolls are 4-5 foot today, so hopefully that swell will filter in here on Sunday.
Southern Atolls are directly open to ALL of the SW swell, and also being further south less swell travel, hence less swell dilution, hence bigger than the western atolls of the central atolls.
Thurs 28th was always small from the SE, which is all what the North and South Male Atolls see. Friday 29th was expecting a new pulse of SE swell, but perhaps it was delayed in getting up as far as the North Male atolls. I'd be surprised the SE swell magnets of the North Male atolls would be flat with a 2-3ft SE swell in the water.
surfflatwaves wrote:Laamu has been great., we left for it on Saturday early and am glad we did. Head high for Sat and Sun with bigger sets, great form. Pretty much too ourselves. Really rough winds overnight and this AM (Monday), our anchor couldn't hold and we drifted halfway across the inside of the atoll in pretty big seas. Today biggest sets were 3 foot overhead, but majority 1-2 overhead. Really shifty though, hard to read, should be better tomorrow. If it stays in the head high plus range with good form I'll be very happy.
Sounds like the forecast for Sat/Sun wasn't too far off the money then (I equate head high as 3ft surf). Sounds like Monday's new swell came in above expectations if you're seeing 1m overhead. That sounds like more 4-5ft in my scale?
Glad you're scoring some fun uncrowded surf but!!!
The NOAA model's picking up a nice jump in swell this arvo and slowly fading until you leave on Friday. So you should, hopefully, be sorted!
I'm heading down to the Central Atolls of the Maldives (Thaa, Laamu, Meemu) from May 25-June 4th. I've seen some great forecasts from some of the regulars on this site in the past, and was wondering if they could help out as time gets closer to the trip. I have not seen any reliable forecast for the central region, and don't really even trust the reports for the North Male atolls much either First boat trip and getting excited. Thanks for any help.