11 march onwards for cyclone swell

Yeah, the irony huh?

Prog 2.3.15 for the 15th.

Prog 4.3.15 for the 15th.

Prog 6.2.15 for the 15th.

prog. 2.3. 15 has it close to coast- inshore water warm.whatt do u guys reckon, will it hug cost or do a marcia. low down south but high coming cross to get it to spin and what is that on north qld coast in picture 4.
anybody go out on a limb- it may go live in gulf warm bath and re create trough line between two. tassie dog, don, bb, southey, ben, craig, welly, what u reckon.
i may have visit to a two point island with a cylinder stay as well.

Looks like the system will be whisked away too quickly to the south-east, resulting in moderate amounts of building trade-swell and only one short-lived pulse of large E'ly groundswell Tuesday-ish the 17th.

Still really early stages though.

Dr Dave, I wouldn't have a clue, I just enjoy archiving systems like this to see what models have differences when they are progged at a certain date.
Hence the various progs above in the last days.
I will let the guru's have a say, but it is interesting to say the least and is all a big waiting game.

Would be cool if SN had synoptic archives stored away for people to back date......????????
I have been doing this for a year now, especially good swells and snow patterns;)

Craig wrote:

Looks like the system will be whisked away too quickly to the south-east, resulting in moderate amounts of building trade-swell and only one short-lived pulse of large E'ly groundswell Tuesday-ish the 17th.

Still really early stages though.

You siding with EC Craig?

See EC Dr Dave

No, both GFS and EC have this.

As you all can see models change with in a few days....?

As posted above;)

And they will, but it will be interesting to see what is gonna happen.....

European or American......?
Classic;)

Craig wrote:

No, both GFS and EC have this.

The pre 00z GFS runs certainly didn't. They had good swell from this Thursday onwards.

00z GFS run now aligning pretty well with EC actually.

06z better...?

Don, yeah I said building easterly trade-swell but 12z GFS this morning didn't have any E'ly groundswell till Tuesday week.

Still sticking to my guns.

Meanwhile not in Model land .....
The actual invest 93P circulation although elongated and messy , is currently moving west . And although it looks like there is little organisation yet , it is a very large mass of disturbance and being fed by the mother load of Monsoonal flow .
Things are going to get extremely messy in the central western Melanesian isles .

Excuse the last 2 posts I just wanted toy see shaun said ....shaun said,.... all down the page

Shaun, I've rung Fairwork Australia to dob SW in; they obviously have you working close to 24/7 and the only people doing that in Oz are punters on 457 visas.

Thanks Floyd, as nice as these guys are, something is not quite right and I'm going to look into it when I get back from running Bens laundry to Adelaide again this weekend.

shaun wrote:

Thanks Floyd, as nice as these guys are, something is not quite right and I'm going to look into it when I get back from running Bens laundry to Adelaide again this weekend.

Actually knew of a guy who's mum used iron his undies after washing them in starch. He said that was for religious purposes and the only way his shirts stayed straight when he tucked them into his undies. When he told me about this I laughed in disbelief but he reassured me it was true and all his mates in the Young Liberals did the same. Oh, forgot to say this guy's name was Tony Abbott. He was a champion when it came to cunning stunts back then and it seems nothing has changed.

Ask Ben's mum if she has any starch in the laundry .....