Bilge Shunter, I mean Blurt Shirter, I mean Bill Shorten.

I think your whole post is correct stunet. I felt it too...

But labor - as a whole - just didn't resonate with voters.

They had no chance with bill at the helm.

Actually they had a bloody good chance - even with bill, but, somehow, it was impeded beyond fruition, with bill at the helm....

So why were the polls and media so wrong?

Maybe it's true what they say that polls aren't there to reflect the public, but more to try to influence the public?

Nothing puzzling about the Shy Tory. People speak publicly about altrusim and act privately in self interest. Just human nature.

Disagree, they had every chance with Bill. The polls are not always right but Labor would have won for a long period after Turnbull was thrown out. As the election approached Morrison's impression of a likeable Aussie bloke was ramped up and, combined with a barrage of negative advertising, had a huge impact. I thought Labor would win with a slim majority but defeat was a real possibility over the last few weeks. One of the key conclusions to be taken from this election is that a significant majority of those Australians living securely and comfortably really couldn't give a flying fuck about the disadvantaged and will always vote for a party venal enough to plan their campaign around protecting their tax payer inflated lifestyle. So fuck 'em, Howard had his battlers. Scomo has his Scumbags.

"So why were the polls and media so wrong?"

The media are asking themselves this very question...again...

Like it's some big mystery. No mystery...really....

The whole 'media entertainment industrial complex' is broken. The whole thing!

left right, up down. Not a reflection of reality, so bloody obvious...for those that are not a part of it...

A lot of blaming the system going on...

And blaming the voters, those dastardly deplorables...

Parallels much...

gday blowin.

“As I said , I was a rusted on ALP voter and I should still be a rusted on voter. I certainly don’t want the LNP in power , but the ALP no longer cares to represent me . They’ve made a conscious decision to prioritise people who would like to live in Australia over those that already do.”

i thought the ALP policies this election were a genuine attempt to redistribute wealth from the few to the many. we obviously see things different but i’m genuinely curious to understand what you mean by the comment above since we (from what you say in posts above) seem to have very consistent overall view of the ALP but very different positions on this election

@Sypkan,

Nah, internal polling for both parties was similar, so nothing to do with entertainment or influence or bias or whatever. They all use similar methods and they're flawed.

Thats right Skypan. Was a hard night for me, and v. disappointed, but need for face facts and reality. The reality is Labor made some big mistakes. Blaming people who voted for Clive or Scomo (Calling them scumbags!!! WTF??? - continue that and destined to continue to fail) isnt a way forward. Granted labor made themselves a big target with some good policies and that led to the negative campaign. But the biggest mistake was they totally misread the story for QLD and probably WA as well. Until they can admit the importance of mining and associated employment, and even perceived potential for employment for QLD then they are destined to fail. Bob Brown's Stop Adani convoy - read: 'outsiders travelling to regional QLD and hectoring locals about why they shouldnt aspire or continue to have a good job' didn't help at all. Granted a transition is necessary - but a dialogue with these people, and a solid plan that includes opportunities as we transition to a lower CO2 economy is what is required, not an 'us' vs 'them' battle. We are all 'aspirational' now, and the Labor party has to factor that in to how the portray themselves.

BB. Spot on. i remember discussing with several retired or near retired couples who were convinced that changes to negative gearing and imputation credits rules more particularly were going to affect them, when in fact not or just barely. So either they didn't research or bought the bullshit. And none of them were rusted on LNP supporters either, well maybe excepting one. Just goes to show how powerful fear is.

It's well known that it takes twice or three times the positive message to negate a single negative message. It's just the way humans minds are built. Fear and threat are always in the forefront of our minds.

"Nah, internal polling for both parties was similar, so nothing to do with entertainment or influence or bias or whatever. They all use similar methods and they're flawed."

Totally disagree stunet.

All these things feed each other. They use - and interpret - each others data

broken and bias - on both sides - all the way down

GIGO is the techy term...

Or 'crap in crap out' to use the aussie vernacular

Crap in, crap out is what I'm saying.

The polls don't mimic the voting process so bad data goes in.

Yes.

But many polls are a reflection of their media sources, be it left or right...

The questions asked determine the outcomes ...a bit of self fulfillng (deluded) prophecy going on.

a lot actually...

How then to explain Newspoll in the Oz consistently polling Labor ahead?

Newspoll is no longer owned by NewsCorp but it's used exclusively by them. By your criteria they would've had different results.

Also, internal Lib polls had the same.

polls no longer have land lines from the phone book - allowing a representative sample from each electorate- to operate from. sample from social media, mobiles and robo calls is no longer representative of the electorate. as stu said, shit in shit out

Because they are all influenced by each other

The data is corrupted all the way down.

And what ojacko said...

Plus focus groups, they have got to be the most biased, corrupted all the way down, non producing tool of the political establishment

and lobby groups. especially lobby groups.

The whole system is so corrupted it's amazing half of these leaches are still payed for their 'work'.

Dead money, leaches all around. Which opens the argument to worth, jobs, class, 'consumer societies' and 'producer societies' (within country), and what's valued going forward in the changing nature of work.

Barry Cassidy said it himself.... ...there's just too many opinion writers - like himself - opining about opinion, and influencing opinion about opinions in the process

or words to that effect...

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM.

"It’s a good time to reflect on what the campaign has taught us about how democracy works in this country.

The first thing to note is that only the tiniest sliver of politics happens face-to-face, which means that overwhelmingly what we think we know about politics we know through media: print and digital publications, television, radio, and increasingly social media.

The second is that as a source of reliable information on which to make informed decisions, both traditional media and social media are pretty lousy, each in their own way.

The third is that with the notable exception of News Corp, which in this campaign twisted its coverage so badly some of its most highly regarded journalists started to speak out, the problem mostly isn’t about bias to one side of politics or another.

Print media is flawed because its business model is broken, and in its desperate effort to attract attention its bias toward drama and conflict is all-consuming. The Daily Telegraph’s front page attack on Bill Shorten’s comments about his mother was telling, not for its cruelty but for what it said about that newspaper’s insatiable hunger for gotcha journalism. When the combatants can’t or won’t provide a rough approximation of reality-TV entertainment, it has long been a standard modus operandi to get creative.

Television is also a flawed medium for conveying reliable information in detail. TV news is dominated by images, which during a campaign are tightly controlled by political operatives. TV panel shows are often fact-free and full of hot air. Social media is full of anger, fake news, misinformation and outright lies, an information wild-west without a Sheriff in sight. Radio can handle some detail, but it too is often a theatre of conflict as entertainment.

The big public broadcasters such as the ABC and SBS, as well as many smaller players, do take their responsibility to inform seriously. And while our serious newspapers often have some very good analysis from press gallery journalists, too often they have too much coverage skewed towards personalities, intrigue and the horse race of politics. Not to mention the fact you have to flick through a few pages of incomprehensible Clive Palmer ads to get to the stories.

When was the last time you picked up a newspaper and saw a tight and neutral summary of the actual details of competing policies, produced with the sole purpose of helping you make up your own mind? As this campaign drew to a close did you really understand the difference between the climate change policies of the Coalition and Labor? Or the health policies? Or education? Or the 'housing tax' and 'pensioner's tax'?

The media is how we know what we know, but too often this is a case of garbage in, garbage out."

I think there is truth there SD.

During April I was up the Goldy just when the election was called.
My dud aerial meant I could only pick up a talkback radio station.

The white hot anger over the electric car/steal my ute policy was amazing.
I wrote it off, thinking it was a minor non issue.

There were record pre-poll votes. When I found on on the morning of the election that most of these were for the coalition I knew labour were fcuked.

The electorate were waiting with baseball bats alright but, contrary to the polls and media had told us for 18 months, it was Shorten and Labour they wanted to bash.

Facto
Spot on with the media thing. As the great Lou Reed once said:
Don't believe half of what you see
and none of what you hear
It's a lot like what my painter friend Donald said to me
Stick a fork in their ass and turn them over, they're done

Well according to the dominant view here Australian democracy is no longer based on a contest of ideas but is based almost entirely on the premise that before any other consideration it must not alarm the bourgeoisie. If true then we are well and truly fucked but every cloud has a silver lining, I am ordering several thousand "Don't blame me I voted Labor!" t-shirts.

Don't forget Rudd's Sunrise performances there, Sheepy.

Seriously, Sheepy & FR, what's being advocated here? I'm all for 'realpolitik' but this all seems condescending and cynical at best, depressingly downward-sliding at worst.

Fight fire with fire? ProMo burns for us don't you know!

So Labor will now plump for a similar child actor marketing man with 3 word slogans?

"The outline of a plan away from the neolib slowdive was there, and I thought it was well argued. I'm dismayed that after all that, and after all that's at stake, people turn it into the equivalent of reality TV popularity contest. A party that had the balls to put all their policies on the table and veer away from the approaching brick wall gets shafted because he - just one person - doesn't have appeal."

I can only concur, Stu. Look at the name of this thread for fuck's sake.

And yes, Syppy, the old dear from Bribie Island I heard today on the radio in a vox pop (Gawd, and isn't that manipulative, lazy 'journalism') wouldn't know who Barry Cassidy is, let alone watch The Insiders. She knew about the 'pensioner's tax' though. Even mentioned it!

Think for a moment, fellow SwellNetizens, what the Australian electorate has just rewarded campaign-wise. Explicitly, implicitly.

And how that bodes for the future. Future campaigns. Future leaders. Future government. THE FUTURE.

We've just signed on to go backwards for nigh on 10 years now.

If ProMo lasts!

Actually, I put forward that forthwith the fake nickname 'ScoMo' is banished as the un-Australian (you don't give yourself a made-up nickname, mate) marketing dog-shit it plainly is. Be creative. Make up your own one for our Prime Marketer. The true Aussie way!

I'm doing the same thing as you Facto: trying to understand what happened.

Yep. Labor should have ditched their electric car policy agenda. They should have realised that a tradey wears his ute like a badge of honour and doesn't care about the truth instead more interested to listen to easy to digest LNP tribal talkback bullshit so he can repeat it over a beer and score more ute badge wearing points with his ute badge wearing mates.

Tritons are shit BTW, I know because me mates friend's dads uncle has one. That's how I know.

Why is no one questioning the swing against labor in multicultural western Sydney ?

Why do people claim that if you’re sitting on the mandatory $400K mortgage and your work is insecure , that you’re a comfortably wealthy citizen voting for self interest instead of the “ disadvantaged “ ?

Why does no one take into account the ALP elderly foreigners handout visa whilst claiming it’s the Australian’s who’ve worked their arses off to be self supporting in their retirement who are entitled ?

Why is no one questioning the rejection of the ALP’s godless LBHQT agenda by conservative immigrants?

Why do people assume that the media is responsible or that police weren’t communicatied properly or that people are too stupid understand them without realising that the vast majority of people just genuinely not give a fuck about politics ? To most it’s akin to another code of football they don’t follow.....they recognise the names of a few key players but the rest is background noise they completely ignore. That doesn’t make them stupid , it makes them engaged in other things.

Posts above, BB I agree with your definition of modern working class. The wealthy are plumbers, builders, electricians and those with Govco jobs - in regional areas. Caveat, only if they reinvested into property/their business/other businesses over the last 10 to 30 years or so using NG and the other tricks of the trade. Probably property speculators and FIRE sector/law/medicine in the city. The service & hospitality sector, yep I see that story every day, I see the kids getting degrees then staying hospitality, nothing is working out so go travel as preference to paying heaps of rent. I guess we are working class now by vocation. But vocation isn't everything ;)

Stu, there's a place for that compassion & caring, you should see how they take care of people at the local cancer wards, and all the support they give. I'm constantly stunned at how much giving there is. The compassion didn't get voted in this time, but it still exists here in Oz and is a throwback to how a lot of the country has traditionally been. Props to ALP for putting a list of policies out there to discuss, but that doesn't seem to work in Australia.

For all of you disappointed, whoever won gets to inherit the shitestorm so take solace in that. If you look at the global macro data it's absolutely terrible. Housing on East Coast has peaked, enormous debt overhang. Our banks are safe? Retail getting thumped, manufacturing having its head squashed into the floor, inland NSW has dirt paddocks, not even a weed cover in places. Vic, WA dry. US/China cold war in play.

Recently going through the Hunter Valley, I was amazed at how busy it was. Going gangbusters like I remember NW WA at peak of mining boom phase 1. Friendly communities too based on my own interactions. These guys would be ALP, but I did wonder how comfortable they would be knowing their entire world was due to be legislated out of existence by the Party...

sheepy, swing against Coalition as well, going to minor parties - that one was discussed as a possiblity here before the election. Comments at Macrobusiness were thick with this sentiment, I get the impression that crowd is Uni Economics educated and working in some form of FIRE or IT, and still can't get ahead working professional in the city, whilst being sardined.

Exactly blowin, good points.

No self reflection at all...just like you know who....

"I'm doing the same thing as you Facto: trying to understand what happened."

Clearly a lot of people are...

"What happened" ...there's a book in there somewhere....which might be a clue to what just happened...

Sorry murdoch bashers but you know the 'rules of engagement'. And the media is part of the wider apparatus to be manipulated. The 4th pillar, or 5th pillar, or something...

Good posts batfink, and I wouldn't dispute much.

But I would make the points...

1) zenman is in japan

2) I actually watch no murdoch media at all. And I occasionally (less than once a week) pick up a murdoch paper whilst waitimg for coffee.

3) I live on a steady diet of abc, sbs, guardian etc. and I have to agree with zenman. From my little bubble, the media was definitely "pushing labor's barrow".

This is all within the confines of the game, the rules of engagement if you will...

...actually ... this is the fucking game!

With the utmost respect, you guys just sound like a bunch of shattered clintonistas crying about the electoral college or something....

If labor's message doesn't resonate within the confines of the game, with their target audience, ... you're either playing it wrong ... or your policies are shit.

Or both!

Or, you're playing it wrong. And your policies are shit because you have a shit leader. Just a thought...

Yes personality politics is a little sad and pathetic. But the leader does focus the team. And if you're leader is bland, boring, and terribly centrist with no appeal....

chances are your policies may be focussed a little bland, boring, and terribly centrist with no appeal...

Sorry , BB, but I’ll always remain working class.

Whilst you were mincing around the staff room in your cardigan, whining that someone drank your milk out of the staff fridge and that the air con is too chilly, I was working as a brickies labouerer , cafe worker , cleaner . I’ve worked drilling rigs and crayboats , pearls , wet lined finfish , owned a cafe , built houses . Worked in iron ore mines , diamond mines , LNG plants , fertiliser plants . Caught prawns and pulled beers.

A lot of which happened in places that would cruel your poor ,fragile Pommy sensibilities .

Just cause I didn’t piss my money up against a wall , doesn’t mean I didn’t earn it. I had to chase or create my own employment.

Meanwhile, you went from school to school, a little bit of youthful breakout, then back to school for the rest of your cloistered , government remunerated life. What the fuck wold you know about the working class ?

Great points sheepdog re. the little class divides that have developed in the working classes

It's all about the trade you pick, and the swish government department / mining job you get to facillitate that potential wealth...

Cheers VJ,

Though I really dont take much solace from a gathering shitstorm, whoever owns it. Same as I don't think GetUp made a mistake getting rid of Abbott. Yes he would've made it hard for Morrisson, which would've played into Labor's hands, but for the sake of the country we need those divisive fuckwits gone irrespective of what party they're in. Let Morrisson take the reins and hopefully also take the country to a better place.

Blowin: I wore a blue singlet all day yesterday AND I got called a racist by a Greens voter. You'll never be as working class as me.

This was a very good summary:

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/05/labor-lost-middle-australia/

Just as Greens are not a wholly green party, labor are not a wholly labour party.

Blindboy saying I’m not working class because I didn’t throw away my money is like Rachel Dolezal telling Jay Z he’s not black cause he’s moved out of the projects.

Actually Stu , you can be 50 cent after your trash talking , wife beater wearing yesterday.....solidarity brother.

Great article, VJ.

They've nailed it. The themes were coming up here in the months leading up to it but we generally got rubbished.

Also, there was that article I linked on one discussion mentioning the 'progressive gentry'. If you look at Trump, Brexit, Yellow Vests and now this result, you see a common thread: that's the rebellion from middle class and working class 'normies' against the intellectual, policy making and media progressive gentry who are trying to govern 'top down' by enforcing discussions and eventually policy on people. It didn't work for the Jacobins and it has resistance now.

For sure, but Trump was not a huge win (electoral college system win) and Brexit was still very close to half/half - of those who turned out to vote. The landslide is the reality vs the expectation beforehand, and therein lies the shock factor - and a lot of the mental interest.

Edit: now geographically, all those votes - a very very interesting contrast.

I agree that article pretty much nailed it on all points.

Especially this

" People can’t see the difference between The Greens and Labor

Let’s face it – the Greens and Labor are basically a coalition now. Their policies are the same in many cases – in particular around social causes (such as ‘safe schools’ and ‘transgender rights’). Many voters in middle-Australia have watched Labor lurch further and further to the left in recent years. Middle Australia doesn’t care for transgender rights, or more LGBTQI acceptance.

They care for jobs, and they care for more money in their pockets. There are swathes of ex-Labor voters in outer-suburbia and the regional areas that voted for Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson because they feel abandoned by Labor’s shift the left to secure Green preferences. Labor’s challenge in the next three years is to secure its own identity again."

Ultimately this is how I see it.

The majority of us "socially progressive" people are very "conservative" with money issues.

Labor took an extensive overambitious policy agenda to the electorate lead by a poor salesman. This policy agenda left Labor open to attack by the LNP who effectively ran on a very negative anti-Labor platform (what were the LNP's policy announcements again?)

So socially progressive people can be conservative. But where does that leave the people in the LNP who label themselves conservative? Well IMO they aren't conservatives at all they are "reactionaries".

A reactionary is a person who opposes social and politcal progress or reform. I only have to look back over the last 6 years to see the LNP reactionaries at work on SSM, energy, environment, education, infrastructure and the economy.

Apart from Abbott all those LNP reactionaries are still there so expect more division and infighting for the next 3 years all the while Shouty is already attempting to dishonestly rebadge himself as a "sensible centre" politician/leader. There is nothing sensible centre about his politics or team.

Some comments on the Nationals:

They will never agree to action on climate so 3 more years of inaction mixed with some tension from the new independent cross bench who were all elected on a platform of action.

They will push for fast tracking Adani so I foresee more and more court action questioning federal ministerial decisions (possible LNP state election victory at next election). The future of the mine will hinge on court hearings and not proper ministerial due diligence and review.

How will they cover up the dubious water buybacks of the past and what inaction and maladministration of the Murray-Darling Basin will emerge in the coming months / years?

Barnyard's leadership ambitions haven't gone anywhere so more tension.

Finally, Palmer is he owed or has his debt to the LNP been repaid?

With 76.3% of the vote counted at 4.48pm, 20 May 2019:

Lib + Nats + LNP = 4,868,790 votes

Lib + Nats + LNP + OneNat + UA(Palmer) = 5,619,663 votes

Labor + Green = 5,200,229 votes

source: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results/party-totals

Wanna laugh? Read through the first page of this thread.

Very creative!

And as a great malapropistic mate used to say, "I got a strange feeling of rendezvous!"

From Ross Gittins:

The great risk from Scott Morrison’s miraculous victory is that it will lead politicians on both sides to draw conclusions that worsen our politics and our policies. Bill Shorten offered us a chance to change the government and change the nation, and was answered with a firm No Thanks.

It’s a great win for the Coalition, but a loss for economic policy. The voters’ "revealed preference" is for more personality, less debate of the tough choices we must make to secure our future in a threatening world.

The first lesson the pollies will learn is that disunity doesn’t have to be death. Almost six years of fighting like Kilkenny cats can be forgotten during the eternity of a five-week election campaign, provided you put all the focus on the latest guy, and his predecessors are kept hidden.

The second lesson the pollies will learn is that the only safe strategy for oppositions is to make themselves a "small target", with only a few, popular policies, so all the focus is on the failings of the government.

Whatever policy changes you may be thinking of making, keep your intentions to yourself and don’t, whatever you do, seek a mandate for change.

What voters crave is change without change. Promise it.

Almost 28 years of continuous growth have rendered Australians a timorous nation. No national emergency, no need for change. As Kevin Rudd was the last Labor leader to understand, what voters crave is change without change. Promise it. (Since such a thing is impossible, deliver something else. Expect a backlash.)

Politicians have understood all this since Dr John Hewson (his PhD said: "knows more about economics than politics") used Fightback – "the longest suicide note in history" – to lose the unlosable election in 1993.

Labor forgot this because it wanted to be seen as less negative and destructive than Tony Abbott, and because, knowing Shorten lacked charisma, it decided policy substance was the best substitute. As it turned out, wrong.

In this era of unreal reality game shows, and multitudes of disillusioned, disengaged voters, the most successful politicians are those best at show biz. Morrison may not be the lovable larrikin Bob Hawke was, but he comes a lot closer than Hawke’s union mate did.

Morrison spent five weeks performing for the cameras to the exclusion of all others, and the electorate warmed to what it saw. Perhaps what Labor needs is a casting director.

The third lesson the pollies will learn is that the eternal reality of conflict between the classes must always remain covert. Any overt attack on privilege does more to fire up the defences of the well-off than to whet the appetites of those missing out.

In this country, the only envy that works is the downward variety. Envy the jobless for being able to eat without working, or the Indigenous for the extra help they get? Sure.

This government has spent its time beating up on boat people, public servants and those on welfare and, in the process, has gained more votes than it’s lost.

The well-off may have benefited from a lot more good luck (as I have) than it suits them to admit, but they are adept at convincing the punters than an attack on my five dollars is an attack on your five cents.

Labor fashioned a policy to pay for more of the spending on health and education voters genuinely want by reducing the tax breaks of the top 10 per cent (including the top 10 per cent of retirees), but almost every oldie was convinced they’d be a victim.

Same with the way the nation’s real estate agents put the frighteners on their tenants over negative gearing.

Highlight the conflict between the generations and you’re smacked by the demographic reality that voters get older every year, and the over-65s far outnumber the young.

In this election it was the Morrison government that made itself a small target so all the focus would be on Labor’s perceived policy losers.

Believing he had nothing to lose, Morrison staked everything on offering the world’s most expensive tax cuts.

But did he lie awake in the early hours of Sunday morning wondering how on earth he’d pay for them without the budget heading back into deficit? About the hugely optimistic forecasts of the economy’s early return to strong growth used to bolster his economic record? About the requirement that there be zero real growth in government spending per person over the next four years?

Morrison has no policy to control electricity prices, no convincing policy on climate change, no policy to halt the rising cost of health insurance, no policy response to any downturn in the economy, no solution to “cost of living pressures” and no plan to increase wages except yet more waiting.

The day may come when he decides winning the election was the easy bit.

Ross Gittins is the Herald’s economics editor.

Thats true.

But the other thing is Morrison has no policies, none.
No promises made, no promises to break.

He can do whatever the fuck he wants.

That is a sobering and depressing summation by Gittins. And FR that observation is the cherry on top.