Bells Rip Curl Pro

Still pretty early right now but long range models are suggesting a blocking pattern across the near swell window around the start of the waiting period.. which wouldn't result in any decent swell and/or favourable conditions for the first third.

Dunno if I'd look too much into it at this early stage though. A lot can happen between now and then, especially in the Southern Ocean.

Yeah, as ben said, and also I think southey somewhere else, looks like a worry....... But one chart has hope..... I'm not a bells swell expert.... Faaaaar from it.... But can anyone tell me if this setup would produce waves at bells, and what size?

Qld bloggers also note TD waaaay out in the pacific......

One chart in isolation doesn't say much SD - we need to know where that low came from, and where it's going.

For example, a low that develops close to WA and tracks SE through that position will generate very little swell for Bells. However, a polar low that forms close to the ice shelf and tracks NE through that position would generate a potentially large swell for Bells.

And all of the variations between, of course.

SD, what Ben said ^^

Bells comp at Phillip Is ...really....when was that ?

Yeah I was there for the Phillip Island event ('05? '06?). Wasn't much swell around and the banks at Johanna were shot, so everyone trooped over to PI to finish off the event in fun beachies at Woolamai. By memory Trent Munro won the event, defeating Andy Irons (who had won the world title the year before).

Yep 2005.

Oscar the Grouch here.

I'm hoping for a flat 2 weeks and/or blowing SE all over Vicco during the contest period, followed by an epic autumn swell season.

Let the circus roll on to some other place and fuck it up I say.

thermalben wrote:

One chart in isolation doesn't say much SD - we need to know where that low came from, and where it's going.

For example, a low that develops close to WA and tracks SE through that position will generate very little swell for Bells. However, a polar low that forms close to the ice shelf and tracks NE through that position would generate a potentially large swell for Bells.

And all of the variations between, of course.

thanks for that.... Looks to come in to picture on the 50s line heading ese..... I note another low behind that on the 2nd/3rd..... But as you said, still a long way out.....

Sheepdog wrote:

thermalben wrote:

One chart in isolation doesn't say much SD - we need to know where that low came from, and where it's going.

For example, a low that develops close to WA and tracks SE through that position will generate very little swell for Bells. However, a polar low that forms close to the ice shelf and tracks NE through that position would generate a potentially large swell for Bells.

And all of the variations between, of course.

thanks for that.... Looks to come in to picture on the 50s line heading ese..... I note another low behind that on the 2nd/3rd..... But as you said, still a long way out.....

this was my input the other day ...

southey wrote:

" Friday, 20 Mar 2015 at 2:36pm
ACB__ wrote:Definitely got off lightly. Can't believe he gets to surf bells.
Must be a Gillette staff member working for WSL.

Have you had a look at the long range forecast , perhaps no one from the WSL tour will get to surf bells ........ kind of not looking much like any dream tour . MR looks to get good waves prior to bells contest , i hope they get waves after it other wise this years tour and perhaps any after will be down the girglar . Just imagine getting skunked for waves 3 comps in a row , Hughie along with many others must not like the stench coming from this new WSL carcass .?!

SD , that low is of Sub tropical origin , note even though it is down quite low ( high lattitudes ) that it has no connection to the the polar systems either side of it and more important below .
Since Friday i have seen an increase in westerly component swell running into the start for the Bells waiting period . This may open up a glimmer of hope , as multiple fast moving weak fronts ( as in little Sth/Nth change ) with extremely long fetch can provide the large swell periods of westerly component that helps smaller height swells refract . Alternatively Places SE of the Wooly coast love that Swell direction ....
Better still WSL is toast .

Southey,,, yeah that low seems to form out of a trough that is expected to move over water off the S.E african coast 28th or there abouts.. It then tracks east by ese as a bit of muck, and interacts with some polar air around 110e 40s...... As it passes under NZ post 2/4, it officially joins the 60s club lol......

So you think the next potential low in the 60s conveyor belt is better positioned? (map below - 120e 60s)

And BTW.... I like toast.......

floyd wrote:

Oscar the Grouch here.

I'm hoping for a flat 2 weeks and/or blowing SE all over Vicco during the contest period, followed by an epic autumn swell season.

Let the circus roll on to some other place and fuck it up I say.

X2 :-))

Floyd..... Victoria has been fucked since "Jeff" was premier and the AFL banned the hip and shoulder ..... , Ablett senior, Carey, Dermy, even little Libba wouldn't get a game these days.... As for Plugger, David Rhys Jones, Jacko, Dippa, Don Scott, and Lethal, well they'd be jailed....

2 weeks of mung beans spending money in Torquay aint gonna hurt anyone lol

X3 floydy,
Hip and shoulder has never been banned in the AFL daggybum, go back to politics ,you know nothing about Victoria or AFL, surprized you didn't refer to him as Pucker;-))))

Actually when Trent won the event at Philip Island...there was not one heat at Bells that year.....

looks like small swell start for the event.......but today was great!!!!

looks like weds /thurs pretty good also....

also guys they cannot move the event anywhere from good Friday to the Tuesday......

Sheepy ... pretty much nailed it .... especially the surf.

On footy I saw Mark Harvey line up Diesel Williams from the back row of the Southern Stand once .... it was poetry, one of the best things I've ever seen on a footy field, it was a genuine hip and shoulder but some of the players you list were just plain thugs and they should have been jailed.

Saw Lethal break the point post at Windy Hill. What you will not hear about Lethal is how many junior recruits at Hawthorn he put out/off of the game permanently. Alan Jeans used him to test recruits nerve, fail the test and it was "go home son VFL footy isn't for you". Lethal was big on running through 17 year olds and breaking their jaws, noses or whatever he could hit.

Floyd..... I was in the southern outer pocket at Moorabbin for the saints last ever home game before moving to Waverley.... Saw Plugger nail Alistair Lynch (Fitzroy) into the fence.... Thought he killed him.... Plugger got dragged by Sheldon..... No camera angles picked it up clearly.... If they had've, plugger would've got 10....... Instead, he walked free lol...
Was also at Moorabbin as a kid in ,,,, was it 78 or 79..... The bloodbath between the saints and the dons.... Mad dog, Van der haar.... Was there with my dad, 3 uncles, and my grand dad ( all blues supporters, but they spoilt me when i came down for holidays).... pa was whinging at the start about not being at the blues game, but when the punches started flying, he was enthralled.... Unbelievable.... One of the nastiest spiteful games I have ever witnessed... had a pretty good side that year... Saints and the dons were sitting 1 and 2 on the ladder.... Rex Hunt was at the saints.... By memory, 12 saints and 8 dons were suspended for multiple weeks.... Both sides just missed the finals.....

ps- Van der haar kicked a goal after the siren..... But saints were up by 12....... Saints by a goal..... ;)

Gay FL and WSL.......?
Sounds like Bells.

wellymon wrote:

Gay FL and WSL.......?
Sounds like Bells.

One word for ya, welly...... hopoate ...... No sticking your finger up your opponents arse in AFL, mate,,,, Or packing a scrum and hanging on to eachothers balls as you sniff anus...... Here is some footage of a typical league player.....

Photo deleted due to morris being a whinging whining pissbreath.... ( was photo of Todd carney and that infamous gargoyle night)

Now here is some footage of a typical AFL player.....

Classy pics sheepshit, do you lower t'he tone of everything you touch?

Ok, I'll delete it for you you whinging peice of shit....

Well kids read this, but then they move on cause they realise it's below them

WTF?OMG!
Sheepdog that foto was gnarly!!
havent tried but read a short book on it n they said its good for u???just dont drink other peoples!only your own....i guess that guy read the same book!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Apparently it's good for foot calluses, Troppo.... But the June Dally Watkins of swellnet has spoken... As we have seen over the past few weeks, he practices what he preaches... So best do what his royalness says....

Anyways, hoping the saints may win 5 games this year..... :/

Well its not that trashy Facebook page you have, I would post a link to it but but you'd start quoting rules, as you do when it suits.

Ohhhhh Ouch!!!!

I'm a true blue Union man Sheepio and follow with pride the best Union team in the world throughout history, not Leauge;)
Hopoate was disgraceful IMO, as well as what you posted above, that's dirty play mate, no good IMO.
But hey thats what you get with aerial ping pong eh :-P

Now come on fellas back to ringing the Bell now;)

Wooly coast?

Hey Mitch Very Good, thats a little bit funny coming from you;)

Anyways sorry for being off topic here but just watched SBS news, the Ozzie boys with the Waratahs and Brumbies with Homophobic slurs....?
AFL well known for the use of ICE before the game....?
WTF.

Back to the Bell.
Cricket...? maybe........!

floyd wrote:

Oscar the Grouch here.

I'm hoping for a flat 2 weeks and/or blowing SE all over Vicco during the contest period, followed by an epic autumn swell season.

Let the circus roll on to some other place and fuck it up I say.

A direct south wind would be better, howling of course

Haha yeah Welly it is... But still, Wooly Coast?

On the chin bro, on the chin.
But did you answer my question Mitch Very Good.
Are you living in Vic now........?

He'll be back after 7.30 AEDT... He's watching "if you are the one"..... ;)
Good show, mitch.... I hooked now ya mongrel lol

welly ,
your very self conscious of you " Uthnentucity " I think MVG was refering to my post .
at which case , mitch get out a map mate .....

Never self conscious of myself at all Southey
How dare you ,
You should contact Morris ,
I say.
or maybe Shaunio:)

Nah all good, I'm down here for a bit and boy oh boy can a specific beachie hold size better than ya NNSW magnets. Gotta work for it but or you'll end up in Tassie. No time for tele Sheepy but glad you enjoy it!

But yeah thought I might be missing some specific, local agricultural reference; as opposed to a name shortening. Only thing is there's a lot of straight beach there too, and depends on petition of H's E flank. Anyway, I'll suss it out.