Interesting things too

Another article concerning the struggle of men and boys:

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/04/1133586707/boys-men-labor-force-jobs-gend...

From 2022 and US figures. I wonder to what extent this might happen in Australia, as we are very hands on with many tradies still doing well. Areas like Geelong, Elizabeth, Melbourne's north losing their industry may see more of these kind of inequalities?

Vic Gov has appointed a parliamentary secretary for Men's behaviour change:

https://www.insidestategovernment.com.au/victorian-govt-announces-austra...

Not the kind of change to help men in these situations I think. The guy will be constantly swatting red pills.

"...just to piss France off."

lol troll sponsored revolutions

And a more conscientious report on the New Caledonia situation, decent journalism:

Wow, a huge chunk this time.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-03/inskip-point-sinkhole-inshore-lan...
It’s lucky the barge wasn’t landed and cars boarding.

Amazing and rare cloud formation in Syd yesterday. Inspired a few tinfoil hat theories. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-04/nsw-sydney-roll-clouds-explainer/...

Of course we should believe a government produced abc story.

ashsam wrote:

Of course we should believe a government produced abc story.

Well, why not.

If you’re gullible enough to wolf down non-stories that appeal to your confirmation bias from news.com.au or the daily mail, you may as well upgrade to a bit of fibre from the ABC.

Can’t eat fairy floss all day.

Yet, we gotta smell elevator farts all day.

Contender for 2024's most amusing news headline:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13525585/Elon-Musk-thanks-Tesla...

"Elon Musk thanks Tesla shareholders for approving $56billion pay package after slamming New York Times over report that Amazon tribe was addicted to porn due to Starlink"

All the world's a beta test...

Continuing on the demographics theme:

" I think what we have done is focus societies for no good or bad reason perhaps on things like getting an education pursuing a career to a certain point and we've simply
forgotten the reality that if people want to have children assuming they do
if people want to have children that needs to be factored in two and there
are time limitations and really no one has been talking about this so the number of heart broken stories I you know sat in people's homes with people shedding tears because they just didn't know that it gets harder and harder to have a child perhaps that's part of the civilization we've created but it's one that should be quite easy to change "

- from the transcription.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-20/surf-study-australian-national-un...

French 1st round election results map:

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/30/french-electi...

Note the country/urban split. Will be a very interesting week for them. Would have put this up in the federal election thread but they're discussing the nuclear faux pas - boom tish

..

Very very interesting VJ.
Clearly, this is where shit gets real when high levels of immigration, ideological issues i.e. culture/religion, and economic issues start to butt up against each other in one of the world's premier secular liberal democracies.

Yep Andy, I don't know much about the France situation though have read of the immigration experiment not working there. What's most surprising in this election is that the young are very supportive of RN. Got a week of horse trading until the 2nd round.

Amusing miscalculation by Macron in doing the vote is up with Dave Cameron giving a Brexit vote a go.

Macron is finished. Immigration is out of control. Some cities look like a 3rd world country. Add inflation to the mix and attitudes get radicalised quite easily.

He's got 3 years left and indicated he won't go easily.

Jordan Bardella at 28 may become youngest French PM in a long time.

What are the odds on riots one way or another?

& on the UK election trail, this is a solid prank, well played!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/30/nigel-farage-speech-inte...

There’s always good chance of riot in France. Times are definitely changing.

Yes they are. A somewhat karmic take on this:

https://www.politico.eu/article/france-laid-the-foundations-for-campus-w...

I spent quite a few years on and off in France and the local people said that they had no problem with black immigrants, the issue was with arabs/muslims.
They said there was a fundamental clash of cultures and in particular the white women had major issues with the way they were treated by arab men - hissing, spitting, sexual insults.
Difficult to see this being surmountable.
Having said that, muggers in France and parts of Italy seemed to span skin colours and backgrounds.
Often had to watch yourself, it was a bit surprising.

Yes the French do a good protest, always interesting, always go hard.
Across the channel, the views are varied and complex. Polling suggests the economy and NHS are bigger concerns than immigration. It will be interesting to see how Farage and his party actually go.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/bregrets-they-ve-got-a-few-most-b...

- this bloke might be back on the job soon ;)

https://m.

I’ll have the one near Subway and the Metro.
Laughing at the appearance of (where’s) Wally. Riot fires were a bit…. yeah nah. Keep ya front burning while ya arse is freezing.
Rotisserie chicken.

Kinda funny. The West’s in the throes of rejecting the established Bill and Ben parties. The Yanks turn to Trump while some run towards the Squad and Bernie, the Poms flirt with Jeremy but it’s Nigel who’s on the rise, the Frogs turn to Marine and Mélenchon (who maybe aren’t so different), the Itis to Giorgia, the Netherlanders to Geert, and the Krauts even a bit towards the AfD. And the Aussies? To the barricades with - the Teals!

Yeah but let's remember that Geert got 25%, Meloni in Italy about the same. They hardly have an overwhelming mandate. Labor in the UK will win in a landslide, Farage and co are only likely to take votes from the Conservatives.

Mine was more a comment on the Teals Blackers.

There’s something about them in their bourgeois bliss that I find inherently comical. Especially in comparison to these more vibrant and colourful characters on the populist left and right. The Teals seem to me to be the symbol of modern Australia. In our hard more radical beginnings we had the swagman, Ned Kelly and the digger. Now we have the Teals.

But I suppose it’s interesting to wonder why Australian voters haven’t followed our European and American cousins on their way down the populist path. The primrose way to the everlasting bonfire?

Could be that we are now a cowed, compliant passive population as many suggested the pandemic showed. But I suspect it’s nothing more than the resources that prop up our economy, a preferential voting system that favours the majors and the still critical mass of people that are sitting pretty on property. But that’s not gonna last for too much longer.

Interesting that Canada and New Zealand have also been slow on the uptake. Both constitutional monarchies. Take note republicans!

You seem to downplay the move towards populism. I disagree. I think there’s a clear trend. As neoliberalism/globalism enters palliative care, so go the non-interventionist establishment parties that have done nothing other than let their countries be blown and buffeted in whatever direction the seemingly irresistible winds and currents of globalisation take them.

France is the classic example. The people had had enough of Bill and Ben, Labor (PS) and the Liberals (LR). Macron exploited this in his lust for power. So he got his third way centrist party (RE) voted in. More of the same. So now the people have nowhere to go but the ‘Far Right’ and the ‘Far Left’ (terms too glib and simplistic, but if it’s good enough for the likes of The Guardian and The Age, it's good enough for me.)

I think Macron, Cameron and Hillary will be largely forgotten in the grand scheme. Modern day von Pappens. Little known footnotes. But when you come across them in a history book you’ll think - ‘wow’. “Take it easy von Hindy old boy, we’ve got this odd little failed painter chap right were we want him. Take it from me. I know.” The arrogant, egotistical, overeducated foolish elites who opened the door.

Europe is probably just reverting to type. This whole period – say 1980 to 2016 – a historical anomaly, as the nation state reclaims its primacy amongst western style democracies.

Go Japan! Much mocked. But playing the long game.

America is stranger case. I don’t think all that much will change if Trump gets in. He’s too big to be Bannon’s puppet. And Bannon will leave him alone. But if a Bannon aligned candidate (JD Vance?) gets the MAGA Republican nomination in ‘28 then we could be in for some radical change in the US. Trump will seem like Reagan.

Bannon’s reach is long. Worldwide. I think we underestimate him. A powerhouse who knows exactly what the National Conservative Populist (I think that’s what he calls it) future should like and how to realise it. I think he could prove to be the most significant figure of the century.

Interesting that he’s been shouting loud that Michelle Obama is the only person who could beat Trump. Maybe he’s going double bluff, playing 3D chess. But I suspect this might be his genuine opinion.

Hope the Dems take his advice. If only for the good of the ongoing soap opera.

Roker we are later in the cycle than Europe, they've had a decade of far more challenging times, we've had more boom. I agree with you, the swing will be a hard one against globalism (already happening) and probably to the right. Nation states and great power competition.

Le review, c'est magnifique. I'm not French either, so not sure that's proper grammar there.

Urban legend is that the croissant was shaped as a crescent to celebrate Charles Martel's victory over the Umayyad caliphate at Tours in 732.

Great post Roker, lots of fair points. I think the teals fit in the happy "middle ground" between the centre right and centre- centre right that we offer here. Whilst not intending to downplay the rise of populism it is important to compare like to like and to contextualise. The numbers do not represent overwhelming acceptance of their views, but as you say, suggest an increasing desire for change. The European democracies have always had a plethora of parties and their voting systems allow for their rise and fall. Again, part of a long repeated cycle. The UK continues with generally 2 (main) party outcomes, with a 3rd way (has been the Lib Dems, perhaps Farage's crew) popping up every now and again. It will be interesting to see how Reform actually do.

So we do have a bit of protesty/rioty stuff going on:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13588837/France-Le-Pen-Hard-lef...

The 'New Popular Front' really got me thinking, I'm sure there's been lots of them, but the one that came to mind was before the 1933 Spanish election. A coalition of disparate views from the left (including trying to corral the anarchists :) ) - to oppose Falangists/conservatives/church/monarchists. It must be pointed out the Spanish situation then appears far more extreme than France today. But the themes, they repeat as if history cycles.

A really good doco on those times, one of the best I've seen:

Thought provoking post Roker.
I mean, why would you look to replace governments of and for the corporate elites with wealthy, privileged urban elites like the teals?
Sounds like Stockholm Syndrome.
But, they're competent, connected, and importantly, fundamentally independent.
Burgeoise, definitely, but a sensible alternative to anything truly radical, which is a frightening thought when so many voters have so much to lose, economically speaking.
But as I've mentioned before, if that wealth crumbles, then watch people look for more extreme options.

With regards to France, I'm also wary of the "far right" label, it's too simplistic and immediately makes me think it's basically a slur by the status quo.
Le Pen's father, sure, but her? I'm still looking for a measured analysis.
I mean, is a country that aims to prioritise its citizens for social benefits, housing, and jobs really that far out on the fringes?
Or, as you mention Roker, are the salad days of globalised neoliberalism an anomaly, and this is part of a return to something that is an expression of what the citizens of a nation state expect.

It had to be done.

So what will happen to European countries, and to Australia, if populist or far-right parties get into power?

Genuine question.

A halt on immigration, which, here in Australia at least, will see worker shortages in 'some' industries - ironic quote marks used cos I know 457s get widely abused.

Perhaps that would rectify structural faults allowed to fester due to lack of govt planning. Despite what Joe Strummer said, the future isn't completely unknown, govts of either stripe should've been training and subsidising in-demand industries years before the demand became so urgent it needed to be sought from OS.

Perhaps of greater concern - because the effect is unknown and potentially far more devastating - would be the roll back of trade deals.

Are tariffs and protectionism part of the new nationalism?

Because if they are then, irrespective of your feelings for or against, a rollback of free trade deals will set off a cascading log-jam of industrial action. Global industrial action, with all the attendant upheavals.

I'm a fence-sitter on all this, both cos I don't know enough and even if I did my opinion means squat, but when people advocate for populism and new sovereign rights I'd like to think they've thought through all the ructions that will follow.

...the new nationalism ;)

https://m.

@stunet wrote "Are tariffs and protectionism part of the new nationalism?"

Well they are definitely part of newly anointed King Donald Trump's brand of isolationalism/nationalism.
10% on everything.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-proposal-10-percent-1700-cost...

@Roker said "Bannon’s reach is long. Worldwide. I think we underestimate him. A powerhouse who knows exactly what the National Conservative Populist (I think that’s what he calls it) future should like and how to realise it. I think he could prove to be the most significant figure of the century. "

Interesting to see your man Steve Bannon went to jail today for defying Congress subpoenas. Four months I think, out just before the election.
So another 'nationalist" "populist" "most significant figure of the century" Roker?
Oh dear.
I expect he's in there writing "Steve Bannon / My Struggle".

Yep, highly complex with significant upheaval and plenty of losers.

But as you've pointed out Stu, a shortage of suitable local workers was totally foreseeable, if not part of the design to justify high levels of immigration/cheap labour/population growth.

I can only imagine that Australia would have to be in truly dire economic straits to consider really winding back trade deals and introducing strong protectionism and a rebirth of local industry and manufacturing, that is, for the Australian public to vote in a party so far from the status quo that it would actually implement such a change.
Difficult to imagine at this point in time but certainly possible.
But as most people are aware of, if you've got an economy, an expectation of wealth that's predicated on infinite growth, something's got to give at some stage, you can't have it all, at least not with the current model.
The younger generation and the new-found working poor have just found this out the hard way.
Saw this morning that average household wealth per person in Australia is about $600k.
When you consider that a third of people rent (i.e. we can assume they don't own a house) you can see another illustration of how much wealth is concentrated at the top.
And obviously you can see how a massive chunk of people in Australia might consider first voting for centrist Teals (out of altruism and foresight), and then possibly "radical" populist parties (out of desperation and anger).

No matter what we do there'll be pain, it's probably largely how you frame it.

As an aside, I've often felt that it would be arguably easier for those in regional areas to reframe a reduction in wealth/material possessions as an opportunity to focus on the natural environment.
Possibly naive, but much more realistic than those living economically poor in the cities.

Ah yes, Steve Bannon, man of the peeps. Got arrested last time disembarking from a friend’s luxury yacht from recollection, with a personal wealth somewhere near double that of Joe Biden. Like Donald Trump, like Bolsanaro in Brazil, I think there is plenty of evidence that the populists are just like the “elites” they despise, in it for themselves. They say stuff that plays well with some but things don’t get better and they get turfed like those they replaced. The same self interest drives the voting population and the cycle continues.

Terry Pratchett wrote:

Don't put your trust in revolutions. They always come around again. That's why they're called revolutions. People die, and nothing changes.

Hard to overstate the significance of what the US Supreme Court majority just did.
One of the most significant changes to US democracy since it's inception. They have created the legal framework for it's destruction.
Jaw dropping.
“Today’s decision to grant former Presidents criminal immunity reshapes the institution of the Presidency, It makes a mockery of the principle, foundational to our Constitution and system of Government, that no man is above the law.”
“The President of the United States is the most powerful person in the country, and possibly the world. When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution,”

“Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune.

“Let the President violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. Because if he knew that he may one day face liability for breaking the law, he might not be as bold and fearless as we would like him to be. That is the majority’s message today.

“Even if these nightmare scenarios never play out, and I pray they never do, the damage has been done. The relationship between the President and the people he serves has shifted irrevocably. In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.”
Justice Sonia Sotomayor's Dissenting Opinion.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/01/sonia-sotomayor-...

adam12 wrote:

Hard to overstate the significance of what the US Supreme Court majority just did.
One of the most significant changes to US democracy since it's inception. They have created the legal framework for it's destruction.
Jaw dropping.
“Today’s decision to grant former Presidents criminal immunity reshapes the institution of the Presidency, It makes a mockery of the principle, foundational to our Constitution and system of Government, that no man is above the law.”
“The President of the United States is the most powerful person in the country, and possibly the world. When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution,”

“Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune.

“Let the President violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. Because if he knew that he may one day face liability for breaking the law, he might not be as bold and fearless as we would like him to be. That is the majority’s message today.

“Even if these nightmare scenarios never play out, and I pray they never do, the damage has been done. The relationship between the President and the people he serves has shifted irrevocably. In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.”
Justice Sonia Sotomayor's Dissenting Opinion.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/01/sonia-sotomayor-...

Empire in decline, just hope they go down without taking the whole world down with them.

....'criminal immunity' haha, they're good at that ;)
- hmmmmm ;);)

https://m.

- let the healing begin ;)

https://m.

stunet wrote:

So what will happen to European countries, and to Australia, if populist or far-right parties get into power?

Genuine question.

A halt on immigration, which, here in Australia at least, will see worker shortages in 'some' industries - ironic quote marks used cos I know 457s get widely abused.

Perhaps that would rectify structural faults allowed to fester due to lack of govt planning. Despite what Joe Strummer said, the future isn't completely unknown, govts of either stripe should've been training and subsidising in-demand industries years before the demand became so urgent it needed to be sought from OS.

Perhaps of greater concern - because the effect is unknown and potentially far more devastating - would be the roll back of trade deals.

Are tariffs and protectionism part of the new nationalism?

Because if they are then, irrespective of your feelings for or against, a rollback of free trade deals will set off a cascading log-jam of industrial action. Global industrial action, with all the attendant upheavals.

I'm a fence-sitter on all this, both cos I don't know enough and even if I did my opinion means squat, but when people advocate for populism and new sovereign rights I'd like to think they've thought through all the ructions that will follow.

They most definitely didn't think through all the actions that will follow. The time of tariffs and protectionism is coming back big time. Which probably means more inflation and a slowdown in the economic activity.

Yes, Stu tariffs and protectionism are already in play. In the US, it's bipartisan:

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/14/politics/biden-tariffs-chinese-import...

That suggests to me that behind the facade of the Presidential elections, those in government realise what they need to do for what is coming. In the last 20 years the US has become self sufficient in energy (and an exporter), this allowed self sufficiency in chemical industry downstream; they are self sufficient in military (big build it there emphasis) and now they are going self sufficient in green tech, chip tech and AI tech, with some very generous conditions to attract the world's makers of this. While ours are gone, their automakers remain. They are rebuilding old tech, like steelmills. The US is far from in decline if you look at how they are setting up for what's coming.

This makes watching Australia's approach (with the free trade Taliban running govt departments) sillier still - we are going to strip out even more self sufficiency just before we really need it. So much has been lost already.

International flows of capital and opportunity will still occur, just within the competing blocs. For example look at Joseph Chamberlain's 'Imperial Preference of 1905. It all goes in cycles.

US Supreme court decision paves way for President Camacho.

I can't post a clip that will work, but there's a gem of a moment in 'Ford vs Ferrari' where Hank the Deuce lays down how WW2 really went:

"Henry Ford II : Come here.

[Shelby approaches Henry II]

Henry Ford II : See that little building down there? In World War II, three out of five U.S. bombers rolled off that line. You think Roosevelt beat Hitler? Think again. This isn't the first time Ford Motor's gone to war in Europe. We know how to do more than push paper. And there is one man running this company. You report to him. You understand me?

Carroll Shelby : Yes, sir.

Henry Ford II : Go ahead, Carroll. Go to war.

Carroll Shelby : Thank you, sir."

Here's an example of Australia doing energy different to the US, and different to ensuring self-sufficiency:

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/07/canberra-must-intervene-radical...