House prices
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Notice as The Great Oz Dream turns to Shit > Auntie loses touch with reality shows!
Grand Grander Grandest Designs UK/OZ/NZ
Dream Gardens that are suitable for yer Mansion
Escape from The City > Upper Middle Daydreamer's Seachange Safaris
Today's Antiques Roadshow is coming to you from some Airy Fairy Castle
Restoration of some Oz Magnate's Mansion
ABC for KIDZ (B1/B2 Host Rage)
I Live in a Car
A Song from Under the Floorboards
Sound of the Suburbs
Down at the Tube Station at Midnight
PM's Rage!
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Australian NINJA
NINJAs on 40 year mortgages will save the market. pic.twitter.com/bvbY157edr
— Matt Barrie (@matt_barrie) May 21, 2023
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We're abolishing stamp duty for first-home buyers spending up to $800,000 - and significantly reducing it for up to $1 million!
— Chris Minns (@ChrisMinnsMP) May 21, 2023
To infinity and beyond!
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Freezing nights and Rhiley has croup 🤦🏽‍♀️ homelessness is never something you wish upon your enemies. This “first world country” doesn’t care about children. @AlboMP @ChrisMinnsMP this is what you’re doing to thousands of children who are living in tents Australia wide! pic.twitter.com/kyGFxOvDLO
— belle button (@belle_whale) May 21, 2023
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NZRB raises official cash rate to 5.5%.
Recent Govt Budget (last week) highly inflationary.
Immigration 100000 this year (5mil pop).
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Island Bay wrote:NZRB raises official cash rate to 5.5%.
Recent Govt Budget (last week) highly inflationary.
Immigration 100000 this year (5mil pop).
Boosting the demand and countering with the rates. It's madness.
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velocityjohnno wrote:
Apparently homelessness is a big issue in Tassie at the moment but the biggest concern is pushing ahead with the $700,000,000 stadium, which cost will of course, blow right out to a bill plus.
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velocityjohnno wrote:https://twitter.com/ChrisMinnsMP/status/1660411397551845378
To infinity and beyond!
Of course. But no one wants to address money laundering in the Australian property market. A lot has been said about fiscal policy but not enough about this other problem. Is there a politician who is committed to resolving this outright illegal activity? There are numerous reports raising this acute problem.
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Nick Bone wrote:velocityjohnno wrote:Apparently homelessness is a big issue in Tassie at the moment but the biggest concern is pushing ahead with the $700,000,000 stadium, which cost will of course, blow right out to a bill plus.
They will have an AFL TEAM. They will have MADE IT.
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Island Bay wrote:NZRB raises official cash rate to 5.5%.
Recent Govt Budget (last week) highly inflationary.
Immigration 100000 this year (5mil pop).
Yep it's Govco vs Central Bank
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Flollo - can citizens petition a Royal Commission?
And yes it's total madness seeing the bank and gov so out of sync on both sides of the Tasman.
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Throw this one in for some regulation as well:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/05/universities-boycott-bogus-indi...
Not housing, but shocking how much it's being gamed.
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velocityjohnno wrote:Throw this one in for some regulation as well:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/05/universities-boycott-bogus-indi...
Not housing, but shocking how much it's being gamed.
I don’t know enough to give it proper judgment but it definitely feels dodgy. It looks like a massive loophole to be honest. Permanent migration on the other hand is extremely difficult, especially when applying from overseas. People are gaming the system; come here as a student > get a bridging visa > get a temporary residence visa > get a PR. Government probably doesn’t care as it cashes in at each of the steps.
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up and up and up she goes...
again...
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/european-homebuyers-outperfo...
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the distant whur whur whur whur of the washing machine continues...
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has labor actually done anything at all to address house prices?
all I've seen is them wildly splashing fuel around at all angles
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sypkan wrote:up and up and up she goes...
again...
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/european-homebuyers-outperfo...
Think of the Eurovision talent we will be importing, we could even win it and Australia arrive on the world stage. It'll be like Australia II or the Mean Machine or the Oarsome Foursome all over again.
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Tide turning?
An increase in property taxes for 2nd homes in last week’s state budget and now this and not before time …..
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/short-shrift-for-short-stays...
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GuySmiley wrote:Tide turning?
An increase in property taxes for 2nd homes in last week’s state budget and now this and not before time …..
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/short-shrift-for-short-stays...
Something needs to be done , might upset dick vocal but he’ll survive.
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I’m not convinced. The aim here is clearly to recoup more revenue so they can deal with the mounting debt issues. Andrews is saying that supply is an issue but then he imposes extra charges on that supply. This sounds like a debt/budget repair issue rather than a genuine housing measure.
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It explicitly says that in the article doesn’t it?
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Dan is just looking for any way possible to pay back the debit he has run up
$116.7 billion this year to $162.2 billion by 2025-26 more than QLD, NSW & TAS combined.
"Victoria’s humiliating ranking as analysts compare it with similar states’ debts
Alarming data has revealed how Victoria is embarrassingly dominating several other states and provinces globally by having the most debt."
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/victorias-hum...
I read 20 million in interest repayment's a day.
The mind absolutely boggles on how he got voted back in, worlds longest lockdowns, crazy spiralling debt, corruption after corruption.
At least Jacinda Ardern knew she had screwed up and stepped down.
Dan should be in jail for how he has treated Victorians during Covid.
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Gotta love the voice of the perennially butt-hurt where waste, corruption and a trillion dollars of debt was racked up by Morrison is lilly white good yet it’s Dan that should be in jail. Best get used to Labor governments info he’ll be premier for many more terms yet
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1974 Schoolboy Premiers Burleigh Bomberz FF tbb played AFL not Victorian Rules ?
Lesson : How Goldie's Carrara Cubs hit the Big League!
Solo One to VKC Matlock...[Over!] Got you loud'n'clear Garry!
"Just goin' on a Goldie surf safari & expand the VFL > AFL...(Over!)"
https://www.facebook.com/oversixtys/photos/solo-one-to-vkc-matlock-are-y...
Dec 1986
El Presidente Solo One (Paul Cronin) hits up Skase for $1m
Carrara Cubs Stadium Lease + 6,000 seats + 1 fancy digital Score Board + New Dunnies
19 April 1987 Carrara Cubs (vs) Fitzroy (crowd 22,684)
1989 Skase scammed $6m for Floodlights to expand VFL > AFL nite Games...
First Qld VFL Night Game : Carrara Cubs (vs) Geelong (Crowd 18,198)
Wot!
(Skase never paid for the Lights...Fark!) See ya mate...thanks for all the Fish.
Quintex Liquidators tried to extract the VFL lights or money from Council...
That began the Carrara Cub's Curse!
Locals see it this way... NRL GC Chargers liked wot they saw & were chompin' at the bit.
Council refused VFL [P] Transit so Bottle'O backer was bleedin' $10m & lost the deal (Bummer!)
1993 VFL / AFL Brisbane Bears > 1996 AFL Brisbane Lions
1996 Gold Coast Chargers get their Stadium.
2005-07 Titans (vs) AFL Goldie/Kangaroos
New Era ...AFL Gold Coast Suns
Here's the Big Ticket Breakdown on (25-35,000 cap) GC Stadium
(Important) Note how all cards fell into place to share & promote a new AFL GC team.
.............................................................................................................................................................................................................
VFL GC 1989 (Pop 234k) ($7m) NP State Govt 0% + Alp Oz Govt = 0%
100% Whiteshoe Brigade.
AFL GC 2011 (Pop 507k) ($144.2m) Alp State Govt 49.86% + Alp Oz Govt = 24.97%
GC Premier Bligh $71.9m + Qld PM Rudd $36m + GC Vic Mayor Clarke $23m + AFL $13.3m
AFL Tas 2023 (Pop 253k) ($715m) Lib State Govt 52.45% + Alp Oz Govt = 33.6%
Tas Premier $375m + PM Albo $240m + Hobart Mayor $0 + AFL $15m + $85m Backers
.............................................................................................................................................................................................................
2011 Gold Coast Suns Stadium $140m
2018 Stadium Com Games Closing Ceremony
The Carrara Cubs Curse > "Lights go out! "...Skase forgot to pay the Bill!
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/heritage-bank-stadium-and-precinc...
Anyhow Gromz can now see...Wot! Wot can they see tbb?
The lesson is ... it cost zero Govt dollars to bankroll VFL to annex Qld to expand AFL.
Don't need a PM or $Gazillion for AFL Stadium > just a TV Star headin' up his own Whiteshoe Brigade!
tbb has visited both Hobart / Launceston Stadiums & both are heaps better than Solo One's Stadium!
But Big But! Each State has 12 senators...so do the maths!
Tas = 2.07% of Oz Pop & 0.9% total area but holds 15.79% of Legislative Power.
That's plenty of Horse trading for a Labor Minority Legislative Chamber
Small Tas call Election live on WA TV before WA workers can even queue to vote for who Tassie says!
Again...That's a lot of Pre Poll Power!
Tas is most Powerful State in Oz & their Fav sport is Pork Barrel Rolling
Your Vote is worth shit...Tas vote is way more precious...sorry to share that, but we're all adults here!
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HomeBuilder Stimulus
4 June > 31 Dec 2020 = $25,000
1 Jan > 31 March 2021 = $15,000
137,000 Start Up Boom doubled supply demand in Covid Locked Down Floods.
Building Labour Costs rose 9% / year
Building Costs rose 14% average to Double & spike CPI causing Interest Rate Hikes > Housing Bust
Scomo then ordered ATO not to touch up the Dodgy Bros that owed $60b insolvency debt.
Floods hit & the Dodgy Bros headed for the Hills with Scomo's Stimulus...(Record Builders goin' Bust!)
(Part 1)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-07/homebuilder-grant-housing-constru...
(Part 2)
Fast-tracked now exhausted 5 year Housing Demand. (All Gone!)
House buyers ripped off $200,000 left homeless.
Scomo : "Sure I get it! Dream Homes can become yer worst Nightmare & there's no shame in that!"
"One mustn't feel guilty for choosing the dodgiest builder from our Master Builder's Rogues Gallery!"
Nightmarish start to Albo's Tentchange Pilgrimage...$300/wk annoyingly close to utilities!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-04/international-students-resort-to-...
Bankroll the B2R Tait Gallery to re-imagine a fair go for the New Mob Oz Dreamtime...'I can't breathe!'
https://www.canvasliving.com.au/
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Inflation has come in and beat expectations again, RBA next week. Phil has mentioned housing as inflationary input in hearing today I think.
Linked below is just for the 2nd chart - consumer confidence has gone lower than the 2020 covid lockdown low! So consumers have less confidence compared to when no one was walking the streets. Amazing to consider. Next stop, 1993!
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/05/when-will-albo-be-blamed-for-th...
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And we're in a real pickle: Australia's wealthy boomers can continue to keep up with spending increases higher than inflation as they have an enormous war-chest of funds and 'equity mate', while their savings benefit from higher rates. They benefited from the covid stimulus to a higher extent than younger people as well. Their sheer buying power puts upward pressure on inflation, which melvins debtors. (Thank you Bill and Ted for that reference).
Younger people have battened down the spending hatches, but the wedgie will still be applied by this massive force. What can stop the boomers spending pressuring inflation higher? (Or gas prices being around double that gas 'cap' that was supposed to happen, but another subject, another day...)
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/australias-boomer-powered-consumer?sd=pf
It's the reverse of the pandemic where the older were affected and the young incentivised to do what they wished; now it's economic and the older partying on as the young get crushed. I've mused here if anything economic will be done about the situation; distraction reigns supreme. Here's Billy Nomates, with a song I like to think is a response to 13.3:1 House:Income ratios:
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So true VJ.
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Vj that ratio you mentioned above 13.3:1, does that mean the average house in Oz is worth 13.3 times the average annual income?
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Yes close to GF. Aus median income bout $65k/yr and median house price is bout $710k, so bout 11 times median income.
(Using median values is arguably more accurate due to the skewness in the distributions.)
The links below give some more breakdowns by say state, houses vs units, job type, gender etc.
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goofy that was the number I recently read for Sydney; the rest is anywhere between 6:1 and that 13. Historically, House to earnings is about 1.5-3:1 so ponder that for a moment.
Wilhelm will do have a gander. I can't get their Tarantula song out of my head either, which is a good thing. Baseline/guitar sample reminds me of Hunters' Human Frailty album.
Another vignette of property insanity, this time from the wonderful north Devon coast: here it seems Natural England a quasi government environment body, has torpedoed the entire construction industry. It is so hard to get approval to build a house, this article claims it's cost 500,000 jobs and reduced the nationwide build from 240,000pa to 110,000pa. I checked the pricing and compared to my last look in 2016 where it was affordable country surf soul, it has gone into the stratosphere, even more mad around Croyde than here in Oz. No wonder Billy is angry.
https://www.northdevongazette.co.uk/housing-could-a-defining-issue-of-th...
"In some areas, such as Somerset, all new housing development has been blocked for nearly three years. In desperation, house builders are now being forced to spend tens of thousands of pounds even to build a single home. Inevitably, this is making development unviable or unaffordable for the new houses.
This is also suppressing supply and forcing up the values of existing properties. It is currently estimated that the UK economy has suffered a loss of activity of around ÂŁ30 billion. Also, that around 500,000 fewer jobs are being supported in the construction industry."
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So having a gander he's got the full bingo card of villains: colonialism, patriarchy, capitalism, racism. Bingo! I did like this bit tho,
"Every civilisation has its blind spots — the unsayable or inconceivable, the invisible framework which marks the limits of permissible thought. In Britain today, this is the property system. This situation, too, hasn’t changed since Victorian times. In the 1840s, a famine broke out at the heart of the British Empire, the greatest social catastrophe of 19th-century Europe. One million Irish people died, while millions of others emigrated. One reason they did so was because the British government wouldn’t permit any tampering with the laws of the capitalist economy."
Actually did part of my degree on this topic and how the relief was administered so divisively in Ireland. Labourers would eat up to 14 potatoes a day, it was a disaster when the blight destroyed the crop.
Here's the best ever link on how the system of property itself came to be:
https://web.archive.org/web/20020925223144/http://homepage.ntlworld.com/...
The commons became titled land, and sheep farms. Hundreds of thousands destitute, arrested for going onto their own commons or village; wandering the country, wanting their land back. Their land was stolen. No compensation apart from imprisonment or a trip on a boat and the hope of a ticket of leave. Shepherded into the cities: labour for the Industrial Revolution. The same titled land system came to Australia, we hear lots about this.
He doesn't propose any solutions. How about full restoration of the commons for the young of the UK - let them put up their own villages and towns, land cost zero. Refill the swamps (literally!) How'd you like that for radical?
The trouble is, everything has been titled, and those very titles are the lubrication that makes the modern world flow. Your super is invested in titles to companies and you get part of their earnings via your ownership of these titles. Or perhaps you refuse, but if you rent out a property, you are using it's title. Business owners can mortgage the title to their business to expand. Native title is recognised under law. A Chinese exporter may borrow against the title he has to a pile of copper, which is standardised and titled. A corporate personhood exists in this system; a man not necessarily so.
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Commons in the UK were not for community to build dwellings, they were for grazing, gathering firewood etc. A relic of feudal times.
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velocityjohnno wrote:Linked below is just for the 2nd chart - consumer confidence has gone lower than the 2020 covid lockdown low! So consumers have less confidence compared to when no one was walking the streets. Amazing to consider. Next stop, 1993!
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/05/when-will-albo-be-blamed-for-th...
If it truly is that low, spending (or lack of) is going to cop a flogging over the coming months....which can really only ultimately point to one outcome....the BIG R!!!!
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Thanks gsco and vj. I’d never heard of that before. Interesting
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Here you go Don, yield curve analysis
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/australia/
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/united-states/
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donweather wrote:If it truly is that low, spending (or lack of) is going to cop a flogging over the coming months....which can really only ultimately point to one outcome....the BIG R!!!!
Also note as pointed out above there's a divergence between those who can and are spending, and those who have tightened belts. Eg BIL is a lot older than us, retired worker, just got the biggie 200K RAM truck all decked out, stupendous money to tow a van on the lap
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No big R. They will throw everything at it again, even if it means more inflation.
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Unemployment low, no destruction in wealth effect (Boomers still spending wildly), rents high, huge demand for housing from high pop growth, massive favourable terms of trade etc etc.
Doesn't sound like a Recession to me.
They'll keep pumping the brakes, with the foot on the accelerator for as long as they have to.
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Don’t forget that ~35% of our economy is government spending and is forecasted to go even bigger. I think I worked it out to around $2 trillion over a 3 year period. I shared some of these numbers/sources a few pages back I believe. So, if there was a recession in the next 3 years do you think they won’t go to $2.2 for example? Some of these people can’t wait for it as it gives them a chance to push their agenda. Look at Biden. I saw a 2016 campaign video of Trump complaining about the US $20T debt. Fast forward to 2023 and they are arguing about defaulting on the $31T debt ceiling. So $10T+ in 7 years!? These consumer confidence surveys are kinda weak if government is the no 1 customer in the market.
Honestly, there is no shortage of money to fix some structural issues but there is a shortage of will and desire to do so. Billions are being spent but clearly not in the right places to address issues discussed in this thread.
On the individual level, the only way one will buy a good house in the future is to increase the income side of the equation. Not the easiest thing to do but waiting for government is probably even worse. House prices (give or take) will either stay flattish or grow. I don’t believe anything will change that.
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"Billions are being spent but clearly not in the right places to address issues discussed in this thread"
sounds like a job for the department of consultants.
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Don’t forget peeps - the gen (slightly) prior to the boomers were the ones who felt the GFC the most. When they were due to retire, their super absolutely tanked and their props stagnated or declined. They stopped spending and became stupendously defensive.
Difficult to think we won’t have another cycle of systemic shocks - ever. And if boomers are the engine room with their new-found equity and div yield or share price-growth then it would be folly to hang our hopes on them.
Ask a 2008 retiree how long it was before they were comfy again. I’m tipping it was 2020 or later. If they weren’t so populous they would have been consigned to the scrap heap long ago
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freeride76 wrote:Unemployment low, no destruction in wealth effect (Boomers still spending wildly), rents high, huge demand for housing from high pop growth, massive favourable terms of trade etc etc.
Doesn't sound like a Recession to me.
They'll keep pumping the brakes, with the foot on the accelerator for as long as they have to.
It's really just a question of when now Steve.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/06/01/recession-rba-alan-kohler/...
"Dr Lowe told the senators that mortgage repayments are now the highest as a proportion of income that they have ever been, and that 15 per cent of variable rate borrowers will be in “negative cash flow” by the end of the year." Negative cash flow!!! Meaning more money going out than coming in. That can only mean....sell the fcking farm folks.
These numbers can and only will get higher as interest rates continue to rise.
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We'll see Don.
Huge demand for housing led by record immigration.
You'll have to explain to me how an asset class with huge demand behind it and not enough supply could crash.
Unless we have a total liquidity crisis and the banks stop lending I can't see it happening.
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There was a story on ABC radio yesterday detailing the exodus out of Sydney to the regions, which continues unabated in the post-covid era.
Dovetailing in with VJ's piece above this is one of the most incredible wealth engines this country has ever seen.
Boomers and others who bought property for peanuts, have completely paid it off and are sitting on equity piles in excess of a million dollars.
The sell up and buy outright in the regions- interest rates don't matter. They still have piles of disposable income to spend.
All that matters is demand for their houses stays high and we know that with record immigration into the cities demand is sky high.
This wealth engine is ironically one of the greatest sources of inflation (as noted by Dr Lowe in the most recent notes) because the cost of housing is sky high and is likely to remain so.
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Rich, cashed up skilled migrants buying heaps of the nice established properties around the Margaret River area, no sign of that stopping. Cant blame them , living the dream but driving prices up cuts the grass of locals and the future generations of Australians that will never be able to afford a home.
Strange policy to keep the immigration tap pouring full bore while there is already nowhere near enough housing, hospital beds, places in schools, Doctors (oh yeah we steal them from the 3rd world) , roads/traffic in cities.... traffic in the lineup ,full of temp visa crowd of baristas, fruit pickers and somehow now FIFO workers who become permanent through the biggest loopholed immigration policy of any country in the world .
The best policy the gov can come up with is raise prices and bury their head further in the sand ..... 400,000 new residents a year ....What could go wrong?
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donweather wrote:freeride76 wrote:Unemployment low, no destruction in wealth effect (Boomers still spending wildly), rents high, huge demand for housing from high pop growth, massive favourable terms of trade etc etc.
Doesn't sound like a Recession to me.
They'll keep pumping the brakes, with the foot on the accelerator for as long as they have to.
It's really just a question of when now Steve.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/06/01/recession-rba-alan-kohler/...
"Dr Lowe told the senators that mortgage repayments are now the highest as a proportion of income that they have ever been, and that 15 per cent of variable rate borrowers will be in “negative cash flow” by the end of the year." Negative cash flow!!! Meaning more money going out than coming in. That can only mean....sell the fcking farm folks.
These numbers can and only will get higher as interest rates continue to rise.
People (myself included) have been saying that the property bubble is going to burst for the past 15 years.
It's now gotten to a stage that IF it did burst, and I dont mean a small drop but a proper reset, it would be a bloodbath.
This is what nearly 30 years of neo conservative fed gov, started by Howard, will give you.
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campbell wrote:Rich, cashed up skilled migrants buying heaps of the nice established properties around the Margaret River area, no sign of that stopping. Cant blame them , living the dream but driving prices up cuts the grass of locals and the future generations of Australians that will never be able to afford a home.
Strange policy to keep the immigration tap pouring full bore while there is already nowhere near enough housing, hospital beds, places in schools, Doctors (oh yeah we steal them from the 3rd world) , roads/traffic in cities.... traffic in the lineup ,full of temp visa crowd of baristas, fruit pickers and somehow now FIFO workers who become permanent through the biggest loopholed immigration policy of any country in the world .
The best policy the gov can come up with is raise prices and bury their head further in the sand ..... 400,000 new residents a year ....What could go wrong?
"Damn migrants".
THAY TOOOK OWR JERBBS
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers