House prices
freeride76 wrote:We'll see Don.
Huge demand for housing led by record immigration.
You'll have to explain to me how an asset class with huge demand behind it and not enough supply could crash.
Unless we have a total liquidity crisis and the banks stop lending I can't see it happening.
It's not led by record immigration at all. Sounds like casual Hansonism, Steve.
Is it one factor? Yes. But the bottomline line is AUSTRALIA is responsible for this housing bin fire, not migrants.
Howards policy of turning shelter into tradeable commodities is the root cause, backed by negative gearing. A million empty houses, not being rented in the first year of ownership ( as to not make taxable income off said property) is proof enough. Shows like "the block" , tempting "mum and dad investors" to flip houses and spend bucketloads at advertisers like Bunnings is also proof.
Pointing the finger at those dAmN fUcKinG iMmiGraNtS is below you, Steve. Australia made this clusterfuck. Australia should own it.
Below is is a graph of house prices. Note 1996, when John Howard took power.
You cant stop the blood if you dont know where the wound is.
Sheepdog wrote:campbell wrote:Rich, cashed up skilled migrants buying heaps of the nice established properties around the Margaret River area, no sign of that stopping. Cant blame them , living the dream but driving prices up cuts the grass of locals and the future generations of Australians that will never be able to afford a home.
Strange policy to keep the immigration tap pouring full bore while there is already nowhere near enough housing, hospital beds, places in schools, Doctors (oh yeah we steal them from the 3rd world) , roads/traffic in cities.... traffic in the lineup ,full of temp visa crowd of baristas, fruit pickers and somehow now FIFO workers who become permanent through the biggest loopholed immigration policy of any country in the world .
The best policy the gov can come up with is raise prices and bury their head further in the sand ..... 400,000 new residents a year ....What could go wrong?"Damn migrants".
THAY TOOOK OWR JERBBS
Sorry you read it that way sheepy, plenty of jobs , even the kiwis working these days!
"Sorry you read it that way sheepy, plenty of jobs , even the kiwis working these days!"
Even those bludging kiwis huh?
Jesus christ.
Bit of advice Campbo..... Best thing to do when u find yourself in a hole is to stop digging.
or just get someone in on a 457 visa to dig for you sheepy?
back in business...up up and away:
CoreLogic confirms Aust home prices up for 3rd mth in a row in May as the underlying demand/supply shortfall dominates higher rates.
— Shane Oliver (@ShaneOliverAMP) May 31, 2023
With the hit to buyer capacity, threat of more rate hikes, fixed rate reset & high & rising recession risk the risk of another down leg is still hi pic.twitter.com/S3PBsBjLIT
Cool the jets sheepy. That kind of response is exactly why leaders, politicians bbq chatter and policy is mute on discussing immigration. Because if they raise it they get shrill abuse and labelled racist. All fired up over semantics sheesh
gsco wrote:back in business...up up and away:
https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1664054567045328896
Yep. And generally speaking, I love Shane Oliver’s reports. They basically give me a quick summary of where the things are at in a short, concise format.
It ain't 2010 anymore Sheepdog. People are allowed to talk about immigration without being branded racists, xenophobes, or whatever petty insult the shoeshine boys of the neolibs wish to charge them with.
freeride76 wrote:There was a story on ABC radio yesterday detailing the exodus out of Sydney to the regions, which continues unabated in the post-covid era.
Dovetailing in with VJ's piece above this is one of the most incredible wealth engines this country has ever seen.
Boomers and others who bought property for peanuts, have completely paid it off and are sitting on equity piles in excess of a million dollars.
The sell up and buy outright in the regions- interest rates don't matter. They still have piles of disposable income to spend.
All that matters is demand for their houses stays high and we know that with record immigration into the cities demand is sky high.
This wealth engine is ironically one of the greatest sources of inflation (as noted by Dr Lowe in the most recent notes) because the cost of housing is sky high and is likely to remain so.
This is true FR and often after buying in the regions there's a substantial cash pile sitting left over that is now earning more, or earning even more in divs.
Sheepy: "People (myself included) have been saying that the property bubble is going to burst for the past 15 years.
It's now gotten to a stage that IF it did burst, and I dont mean a small drop but a proper reset, it would be a bloodbath."
That's so true too. If it were to go tits up, you would have to think a banking system event would be on the cards. We have lived for over 30 years with no consequences (ie, a recession, reset in pricing) and that also means we haven't had that reset and the benefit of a reset which lowers the bar for entry for young people; and so a whole generation have had to pay an enormous entry price, or just been priced out of a necessity. The higher they push it, the more people get left out and want to see it burn down.
On Howard turbo charging house prices, yes. But he wasn't the first, I'd go back to about 1984-5:
"How the current negative gearing legislation came about
In 1985 the Hawke/Keating government made legislative reforms many would agree were intended to encourage investing:
Investment property expenses were allowed to offset personal income, reducing personal income tax.
Many would argue that the intention was to increase the number of properties in the country.
This would ideally take some of the pressure off the government to supply housing – and stimulate the economy through the construction industry and all the flow-on industries (primary – materials, retail, sales, and more)."
source
https://www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au/research/15361-a-short-histor...
Also insane is the sheer numbers of immigrants (historic highs and I say this as an immigrant) and allowing foreign purchase, no chasing down potential money laundering, when the housing supply situation (including: the effect of land banked ones) is so tight. It's madness. Watch increasing homelessness amongst Australians and also the international students. It shouldn't happen to anyone here.
High RE prices are occurring across the world, not just the West, and it's got the flavour of tulips to it while we've built the society's functioning on the values of the RE. It's been good for tradies though:
stunet wrote:It ain't 2010 anymore Sheepdog. People are allowed to talk about immigration without being branded racists, xenophobes, or whatever petty insult the shoeshine boys of the neolibs wish to charge them with.
What a pathetic statement. Ok blame immigrants then Stu.
It's always someone elses fault with Hansonites like yourself
Sheepdog wrote:stunet wrote:It ain't 2010 anymore Sheepdog. People are allowed to talk about immigration without being branded racists, xenophobes, or whatever petty insult the shoeshine boys of the neolibs wish to charge them with.
What a pathetic statement. Ok blame immigrants then Stu.
It's always someone elses fault with Hansonites like yourself
Immigration is run by Australian politicians, Sheepy.
Sheepy, I'm not making up boogeymen to shoot down or blame for anything.
I'm just repeating the economic arguments put forth by Dr Phillip Lowe, head of the RBA.
From the ABC.
"When it comes to the rental crisis itself, Dr Lowe said the underlying issue had to do with supply and demand in the rental market.
He said the problem was being exacerbated by the extremely high level of population growth in Australia at the moment.
"Rent growth is going to stay high for quite a long time," he said.
"I think we're going to see a further pick-up because the rental markets are so tight and population growth is so strong."
Population growth in Aus is being driven almost entirely by record NOM (Net Overseas Migration).
It's not an argument being driven by racism- it's just the simplest form of economics: supply and demand.
There is record and growing demand for housing and not enough supply.
More from the ABC.
The house price recovery gathered pace in May, with Sydney continuing to lead a broad recovery, as the number of properties listed for sale fell further.
Sydney prices were up 1.8 per cent in the month, the biggest gain since September 2021, and up 4.8 per cent from January's low — the equivalent of a near-$50,000 increase in the median dwelling value.
Brisbane and Perth posted the next largest gains, up 1.4 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively, while all other capital cities also experienced accelerated growth in the month.
"There are several main factors driving this — we think it is largely the demand from returning overseas migration … met with that higher demand, we've not seen very high volumes of supply," CoreLogic's head of Australian research Eliza Owen told The Business.
"There are also other factors at play such as a really tight rental market, this might be prompting some renters to instead buy if they can afford it, as well as investors potentially looking back to the market as rental income and yields rise as well."
Supply is certainly tight, with the number of homes advertised for sale falling further in May, with fresh listings 13.1 per cent below the five-year average.
CoreLogic said there were around 1,800 fewer homes listed in capital cities than at the end of April.
Appearing before Senate Estimates on Thursday Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe said housing supply was one of the biggest challenges facing the country.
"Population growth is strong and housing stress is real. We need to address this; it's been an issue for a long time," Mr Lowe said.
freeride76 wrote:We'll see Don.
Huge demand for housing led by record immigration.
You'll have to explain to me how an asset class with huge demand behind it and not enough supply could crash.
Unless we have a total liquidity crisis and the banks stop lending I can't see it happening.
The article he referenced doesn't allude to the housing supply/demand issue, more of our impending slide into recession due to many other factors. The state of play with real estate, I think, will have a miniscule impact on whether we enter a recession. As you stated, boomers are driving the real estate pump, but those people aren't borrowing money remember, they cashed up, buying awesome coastal locations with cash, I know, they outbid me multiple times with cash bids while I am a mortgage guy. I believe we are on a one-way path to recession, as early as the end of this month, people with high mortgage to income ratio will lock down and live frugally for years to come, they won't drive the recession, inflation will.
I beg to differ.
Wealth effect is real and continues to drive consumption in the economy= strong employment.
Cafes full with cashed up Boomers means jobs for kids.
Massive demand for our mineral, fossil fuel and ag products keeps Govt flush with cash and able to pump prime economy if needed.
Tradies killing it means money in the economy.
All these interest rate rises and the RBA has barely made a dint in demand.
In fact RE prices are going up again!
Wilhelm Scream wrote:#White Flight Anyone?
Not really....actually, not at all.
I'd like to see the humanitarian intake - even the coloured ones! - increased markedly, but ignoring the fact that immigration has become a blunt tool to cover up poor economic policy, or calling anyone who questions it a racist, as Sheepy and Facto here are doing, is naive.
I can't be bothered looking it up in the database, but the explosion in AirBnBs in Jindabyne over that period accounts for an awful lot of that increase Udo. My housemate decided not to go back to work the snow season this year due to the housing crisis for workers and locals in the area. Endless stream of AirBnBs though.
freeride76 wrote:I beg to differ.
Wealth effect is real and continues to drive consumption in the economy= strong employment.
Cafes full with cashed up Boomers means jobs for kids.Massive demand for our mineral, fossil fuel and ag products keeps Govt flush with cash and able to pump prime economy if needed.
Tradies killing it means money in the economy.
All these interest rate rises and the RBA has barely made a dint in demand.
In fact RE prices are going up again!
You summarised it perfectly. I would also add that not all young people are cash poor. I personally know a few who are doing really well (bought the property in their 20s).
Bit of chart porn, here's the 30 day interbank cash rate
https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-derivatives-market/derivatives...
Also here is the 90 day bill, click on it's tab above if you want to see it's pricing
RBA next week I think, all is quiet...
freeride76 wrote:I beg to differ.
Wealth effect is real and continues to drive consumption in the economy= strong employment.
Cafes full with cashed up Boomers means jobs for kids.Massive demand for our mineral, fossil fuel and ag products keeps Govt flush with cash and able to pump prime economy if needed.
Tradies killing it means money in the economy.
All these interest rate rises and the RBA has barely made a dint in demand.
In fact RE prices are going up again!
Not trying to pick a fight or anything mate, but are you suggesting that boomers are going to prop up our economy? My boomer parents made a mint on property, fully retired, own everything and live very frugally, most of their friends do to. How does that relate to strong employment? The employment figures the government are releasing are ridiculously misinterpreted, employment is not strong right now, every person I talk to in trades, health and hospitality are so under staffed its not funny, the practice I work in has been running on 50% of our usual staffing levels for over a year now. If a person works on a family farm and receives no income they are counted as 'employed', I can mention numerous examples like this one, in other words the employment figures are wildly inaccurate.
I'm not being a smart ass, but kids working in cafes aren't going to scratch it. Tradies are not killing it right now, my builder has had to re-quote my renovation twice now and he has told me he doesn't know if he can start due to labour shortages. The picture on the ground is very different. And, yes your right CPI just went up again!
udo wrote:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-01/jindabyne-house-prices-more-than-...
Was devastated when almost all of Dinner Plain got bought....
Edit: the article including stories of long term locals being priced out sounds similar to the Vail resorts doco I posted in Vids other than surfing. The curse of living in a good place.
This immigration discussion is ridiculous. People should absolutely discuss current immigration policies without fear of being labeled in some negative way. Actually, this discussion is way more important than the one about who did what for 30 years. Who cares about that, for good and for bad, it's long gone.
No probs Pete, not trying to pick a fight either and I'm no economist.
Sich around here and it sounds similar to what you are describing is labour/staff shortages.
IE, there is more work on than tradies, businesses can handle.
Good luck trying to get a tradie to pick up the phone around here- most are solidly booked out for months.
But that's the opposite to what happened in the last proper recession (90's).
They had no fcuking work!
My building mates would do a job then be twiddling their thumbs for weeks waiting for the phone to ring.
And around here Boomers spend like drunken sailors; cars, cafes, food, health, OS trips etc etc.
I accept different places have different mechanisms working but the problem in the economy seems too much demand and not too little.
flollo wrote:This immigration discussion is ridiculous. People should absolutely discuss current immigration policies without fear of being labeled in some negative way. Actually, this discussion is way more important than the one about who did what for 30 years. Who cares about that, for good and for bad, it's long gone.
Novel idea isn't it, discussing an issue on its merits without getting all righteous and bent out of shape.
In any case, Sheepie and ol' mate are in the significant minority with their views on immigration.
And for what it's worth, I'm with Stu with regards to upping the humanitarian intake, regardless of skin colour.
Who woulda thought, eh?
freeride76 wrote:No probs Pete, not trying to pick a fight either and I'm no economist.
Sich around here and it sounds similar to what you are describing is labour/staff shortages.
IE, there is more work on than tradies, businesses can handle.
Good luck trying to get a tradie to pick up the phone around here- most are solidly booked out for months.
But that's the opposite to what happened in the last proper recession (90's).
They had no fcuking work!
My building mates would do a job then be twiddling their thumbs for weeks waiting for the phone to ring.
And around here Boomers spend like drunken sailors; cars, cafes, food, health, OS trips etc etc.
I accept different places have different mechanisms working but the problem in the economy seems too much demand and not too little.
I'm not going to suck your dick mate, but I really enjoy your writing and think you are quite gifted, I find myself agreeing with basically every angle you try to convey in every story, but I couldn't help but comment here as I think your finger isn't on the pulse with this one. I remember only too well my father, a builder, worked for himself, coming home stressed af and arguing with my mum about money during the 90's, he later told me there were multiple times he almost went under, a massive burden to carry for a family of 5 kids. The forces at play then are very different to the forces at play today, for what its worth, my opinion is that inflation is here to stay...for good, western powers will move away from our main source of cheap products/labour and thus low inflation (China) and due to national security concerns we will be forced to produce our own goods and services within the western world, and we all know us westerners don't work for peanuts, which means much higher costs to produce said item. I hope I'm wrong, I hope Russia stop killing innocent people, I hope China recognise international borders and I hope we don't get another juiced up virus, but these are the reasons we about to slide into recession, not property. But I'm happy to be proved wrong!
Sheepdog wrote:freeride76 wrote:We'll see Don.
Huge demand for housing led by record immigration.
You'll have to explain to me how an asset class with huge demand behind it and not enough supply could crash.
Unless we have a total liquidity crisis and the banks stop lending I can't see it happening.
It's not led by record immigration at all. Sounds like casual Hansonism, Steve.
Is it one factor? Yes. But the bottomline line is AUSTRALIA is responsible for this housing bin fire, not migrants.
Howards policy of turning shelter into tradeable commodities is the root cause, backed by negative gearing. A million empty houses, not being rented in the first year of ownership ( as to not make taxable income off said property) is proof enough. Shows like "the block" , tempting "mum and dad investors" to flip houses and spend bucketloads at advertisers like Bunnings is also proof.
Pointing the finger at those dAmN fUcKinG iMmiGraNtS is below you, Steve. Australia made this clusterfuck. Australia should own it.
Below is is a graph of house prices. Note 1996, when John Howard took power.
You cant stop the blood if you dont know where the wound is.
Yes housing prices went up when Howard was in
Because we went from an recession, high unemployment, high interest rates and uncertainty to the exact opposite a healthy economy, jobs, falling interest rates all which gives people confidence and ability to borrow.
High housing prices are really just an effect of long term wide spread prosperity 27+ years recession free only technically broken by Covid lockdowns.
velocityjohnno wrote:Bit of chart porn, here's the 30 day interbank cash rate
https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-derivatives-market/derivatives...
Also here is the 90 day bill, click on it's tab above if you want to see it's pricing
RBA next week I think, all is quiet...
VJ, Mind explaining why this dipping means they're expecting an interest rate rise?
freeride76 wrote:No probs Pete, not trying to pick a fight either and I'm no economist.
Sich around here and it sounds similar to what you are describing is labour/staff shortages.
IE, there is more work on than tradies, businesses can handle.
Good luck trying to get a tradie to pick up the phone around here- most are solidly booked out for months.
But that's the opposite to what happened in the last proper recession (90's).
They had no fcuking work!
My building mates would do a job then be twiddling their thumbs for weeks waiting for the phone to ring.
And around here Boomers spend like drunken sailors; cars, cafes, food, health, OS trips etc etc.
I accept different places have different mechanisms working but the problem in the economy seems too much demand and not too little.
Agree on tradies, all the tradies i know in pretty much every area, cant keep up with the work, its been like this for years though even during covid.
And its meant that their prices have gone up and up as can charge more, which puts even more pressure on housing prices atleast for new builds.
indo-dreaming wrote:freeride76 wrote:No probs Pete, not trying to pick a fight either and I'm no economist.
Sich around here and it sounds similar to what you are describing is labour/staff shortages.
IE, there is more work on than tradies, businesses can handle.
Good luck trying to get a tradie to pick up the phone around here- most are solidly booked out for months.
But that's the opposite to what happened in the last proper recession (90's).
They had no fcuking work!
My building mates would do a job then be twiddling their thumbs for weeks waiting for the phone to ring.
And around here Boomers spend like drunken sailors; cars, cafes, food, health, OS trips etc etc.
I accept different places have different mechanisms working but the problem in the economy seems too much demand and not too little.
Agree on tradies, all the tradies i know in pretty much every area, cant keep up with the work, its been like this for years though even during covid.
And its meant that their prices have gone up and up as can charge more, which puts even more pressure on housing prices atleast for new builds.
Which in return reinforces the voices for negative gearing. Back in the day, most houses were positively geared which is the way it should be. But now, building costs + land for new builds is so high that is nearly impossible to have a positively geared new property (unless the rents go up). Just look at these 3 - real estate agent fees, building costs, and the stamp duty. What a massive part of the price these are. Real estate agents in particular are ripping people off. What a vicious circle it all is.
Sheepdog wrote:freeride76 wrote:We'll see Don.
Huge demand for housing led by record immigration.
You'll have to explain to me how an asset class with huge demand behind it and not enough supply could crash.
Unless we have a total liquidity crisis and the banks stop lending I can't see it happening.
It's not led by record immigration at all. Sounds like casual Hansonism, Steve.
Is it one factor? Yes. But the bottomline line is AUSTRALIA is responsible for this housing bin fire, not migrants.
Howards policy of turning shelter into tradeable commodities is the root cause, backed by negative gearing. A million empty houses, not being rented in the first year of ownership ( as to not make taxable income off said property) is proof enough. Shows like "the block" , tempting "mum and dad investors" to flip houses and spend bucketloads at advertisers like Bunnings is also proof.
Pointing the finger at those dAmN fUcKinG iMmiGraNtS is below you, Steve. Australia made this clusterfuck. Australia should own it.
Below is is a graph of house prices. Note 1996, when John Howard took power.
You cant stop the blood if you dont know where the wound is.
What's the vertical axis here? Can't be $$.
Peter Reynolds wrote:freeride76 wrote:We'll see Don.
Huge demand for housing led by record immigration.
You'll have to explain to me how an asset class with huge demand behind it and not enough supply could crash.
Unless we have a total liquidity crisis and the banks stop lending I can't see it happening.
The article he referenced doesn't allude to the housing supply/demand issue, more of our impending slide into recession due to many other factors. The state of play with real estate, I think, will have a miniscule impact on whether we enter a recession. As you stated, boomers are driving the real estate pump, but those people aren't borrowing money remember, they cashed up, buying awesome coastal locations with cash, I know, they outbid me multiple times with cash bids while I am a mortgage guy. I believe we are on a one-way path to recession, as early as the end of this month, people with high mortgage to income ratio will lock down and live frugally for years to come, they won't drive the recession, inflation will.
Agree however recessions bring unemployment and you can't live frugally paying off a mortgage whilst unemployed, hence the only option will be to sell the farm, which the sheep will all do at the same time, causing a price dump to get rid of the excess fast!!!
Just look at the drop in retail spending so far. Unemployment will first be felt in this sector, followed by tradies etc as no one renovates or builds. The cascade then just follows.
donweather wrote:Sheepdog wrote:freeride76 wrote:We'll see Don.
Huge demand for housing led by record immigration.
You'll have to explain to me how an asset class with huge demand behind it and not enough supply could crash.
Unless we have a total liquidity crisis and the banks stop lending I can't see it happening.
It's not led by record immigration at all. Sounds like casual Hansonism, Steve.
Is it one factor? Yes. But the bottomline line is AUSTRALIA is responsible for this housing bin fire, not migrants.
Howards policy of turning shelter into tradeable commodities is the root cause, backed by negative gearing. A million empty houses, not being rented in the first year of ownership ( as to not make taxable income off said property) is proof enough. Shows like "the block" , tempting "mum and dad investors" to flip houses and spend bucketloads at advertisers like Bunnings is also proof.
Pointing the finger at those dAmN fUcKinG iMmiGraNtS is below you, Steve. Australia made this clusterfuck. Australia should own it.
Below is is a graph of house prices. Note 1996, when John Howard took power.
You cant stop the blood if you dont know where the wound is.
What's the vertical axis here? Can't be $$.
It looks like an index chart with a baseline of 100 set in 2011. So basically, ~20 in the 1880s would indicate that houses were 5 times cheaper than in 2011 (important - inflation-adjusted).
dandandan wrote:Endless stream of AirBnBs though.
And once people cut back on luxuries like holidays etc these empty AirBNBs will also flood the market dumping the price. Although some may revert to sanity and go on the long term rental market (which rental prices should also fall).
Craig wrote:velocityjohnno wrote:Bit of chart porn, here's the 30 day interbank cash rate
https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-derivatives-market/derivatives...
Also here is the 90 day bill, click on it's tab above if you want to see it's pricing
RBA next week I think, all is quiet...
VJ, Mind explaining why this dipping means they're expecting an interest rate rise?
OK - is the media banter that a rise is coming? I don't know this as I don't read msm... but the gist of the past week was that inflation came in hot at 6.8% iirc as opposed to 6.4% consensus - maybe that's why?
If you look at the charts on that link, what surprises me (all in this post is opinion & not financial advice) is that the candles have been very flat from about 1/5 to about 29/5 which suggests calm in the market and is atypical when you look at prior pricing. When I linked the post it still looked like that, but viewing it now I see yesterday's candle drops it to 96.11. Bonds: price is inverse to interest rate. As a very rough guide for myself, I take the level and subtract it from 100 to get a rough idea of where the interest rate sits. Eg on 29/5 100-96.15 = 3.85%, today 100 - 96.11 = 3.89%. I could be completely wrong in doing this too - if anyone knows better feel free to correct me. But it's what I look at. Looking at the contracts into the future, current pricing is July 96.020, Aug and Sep are 95.95, and Nov goes back to 96.05... note all of this can and will change as each trading day (and particularly an RBA announcement day) passes! Does that help Craig? Again, please feel free to correct and not financial advice.
Yeah seeing the cash rate there falling, being inverse leads me to believe there's more of a chance of a rise now.
Electricity prices going up another 20% will just filter through to increased prices, so still higher inflation likely. Interest rates still going to rise some more.
Yep cd and gas prices set the electricity prices and we've apparently got the most expensive gas in the world now on the East coast...
Good stuff Craig, a further question then, does that belief equate to a full 25 basis points?
Alot of people still sitting on the fixed mortage rates - so haven't yet had full affect of the rises. I believe Aug is a large percentage of people coming off the fixed mortage rate, right around the height of the interest rate cycle. Alot of pain to come back end of the year.
No idea VJ, ha.
VJ yes you're correct in that the 30 day rate given by
30 day rate = 100 - last trade
is believed to give the market's expectations for the cash rate over the respective contract expiry month (theoretically it should be an "unbiased estimator" of that month's cash rate). Here are the market's cash rate expectations as of close of market today:
Source: ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures Implied Yield Curve
And to answer your last question, actually this 30 day rate of this month's contract relative to the current cash rate is believed to give the market's estimated probability (as is often quoted in the media) of a cash rate change via the formula:
Source: Cash rate futures: a market expectation of interest rate changes
With a current cash rate of 3.85% and this month's implied cash rate of 3.895%, as of the close of market today the market appears to be assigning a very low probability of an interest rate increase this month.
Reports supporting what FR and others above said.
Prices up as migration increases (without a corresponding increase in supply):
Over 55's are spending more and pushing inflation up:
Possible solution... the Nordic model. 40% of Oslo's housing is cooperative/social:
Byron Shire Mayor on ABC radio this morning describing the homelessness problem as "out of control".
That area around Byron really has a chronic problem. You hear so much about Byron, everyone wants to go there and stay there but then you get there and realise it's still a tiny town with basically one road in and one road out. I honestly don't believe it will ever get fixed.
They had the chance to proscribe controls on holiday letting to maintain housing rental stock and they let it go.
They had the chance to maintain the traditional low cost housing (caravan parks) and they sold them off.
For all it's hippy/dippy image Byron is naked capitalism, red in tooth and claw.
I almost got t-boned on the main street early one morn going to the farmers market.
Elderly woman (in her 60's?) in a van, obviously living in it.
God know what she was running from.
Thanks gsco, appreciate that post and I'll have a go into understanding the formula later today. I feel a bit confirmed as made my reckoning on the lonesome, good to read that. It is almost a bit like how implied volatility changes through the term structure of options contracts - some big announcement can create IV skews (or the skews precede the announcement!) in different months' contracts and the overall expectation of volatility can form peaks that change, when viewing out in time, over time. That's enough nerding anyway.
I wish I understood a single word of that VJ!
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers