Western Australian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 15th)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Saturday protected spots, Sunday morning, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing surf tomorrow with E/SE winds ahead of sea breezes
• Possible variable winds Fri AM though quickly strengthening from the W/SW then stronger W/NW into the PM
• Large W/SW groundswell building Fri, peaking Sat, easing Sun
• S-S/SE winds ahead of strong sea breezes in the South West Sat, S/SE-SE to the north in the AM
• Gusty SE tending E/SE winds ahead of sea breezes Sun
• Moderate E/SE winds Mon ahead of sea breezes
• Smaller Tue with strong S/SE winds

Recap

Our large W/SW groundswell filled in through yesterday with improving conditions across all locations from dawn as winds shifted cross-shore. The South West offered surf in the 10ft range, 3-4ft across Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth.

Today is the pick of it though with large sets holding in the 8ft range across the South West, 3ft+ Mandurah and 2-3ft Perth with great offshore winds.

Great, clean swell lines this morning

This week and next (Jan 16 - 24)

One swell down, another larger one to come.

Today’s easing surf will continue into tomorrow and conditions look great again with an E/SE offshore before sea breezes kick in. The South West should still be 6ft or so, 2ft+ Mandurah and the odd 2ft’er in Perth.

Into Friday winds will quickly shift onshore and strengthen after possible dawn variable breezes and swell wise, some new large W/SW groundswell should be on the build, with it peaking on Saturday.

The onshore wind will be thanks to the remnants of the large swell producing frontal progression moving up and across us.

Coming back to the system itself and a great, broad initial fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds has now been moving slowly east, aiding swell amplification, with the progression now projecting slowly towards us while weakening.

A large, consistent W/SW groundswell is due from this source, peaking Saturday across the region to 10-12ft+ across the South West, 3-4ft Mandurah and 2-3ft Perth.

Winds on Saturday will be SW-S/SW pre dawn but quickly swing to the S/SE-SE across Perth and Mandurah with weaker S-S/SE winds to the South West, giving into strong afternoon sea breezes.

Sunday, as the swell eases looks the pick with E/SE offshore winds kicking in through the morning along with easing surf from 8ft or so across the South West, 2-3ft Mandurah and 2ft+ Perth.

Monday looks smaller again but great with a weaker E/SE offshore wind before sea breezes kick in again, stronger from the S/SE in Tuesday in the wake of a trough on Tuesday evening.

Longer term the outlook is much slower but we’ll look at this in more detail on Friday once we’re done with the coming energy.