Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday June 28th)

Best Days: Tomorrow South West magnets for the desperate, Tuesday morning Perth and Mandurah, selected spots early Wednesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent, easing W/SW groundswell tomorrow with E/NE tending variable winds
• Smaller Fri with fresh E/NE tending N/NE winds
• Large W/SW swell building Mon PM with strong W/NW tending W winds
• Oversized swell peaking Tue with gusty W winds (variable E/NE to the north in the AM)
• Easing surf Wed with strengthening N/NW winds (N/NE early to the north)

Recap

The South West was a bit cleaner yesterday with inconsistent, fun surf to 3-4ft through the morning, deteriorating later morning as onshore winds kicked back in. Perth and Mandurah were clean and to 1-1.5ft.

This morning an inconsistent W/SW groundswell is in the water providing slow waves across all locations, maintaining 1-1.5ft sets across Perth and Mandurah, 4ft sets on the magnets in the South West.

This week and weekend (Jun 29 – Jul 2)

The current, slow and inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due to back off into the end of the week, with nothing much to work with in metro regions, and a couple of scraps across the South West magnets tomorrow morning.

Conditions will be good tomorrow with an E/NE tending variable breeze, fresher E/NE Friday morning, tending N/NE into the afternoon.

It looks like we'll reach a low point in swell Saturday and Sunday along with deteriorating conditions as winds strengthen out of the northern quadrant.

This will be ahead of the first in a flurry of strong storms moving through the Indian Ocean.

This first flurry of storms will be high-riding (north in latitude) with back to back fetches of W/SW-SW gales pushing through our western swell window.

This will bring back to back pulses of W/SW swell that should build Monday afternoon and peak Tuesday, easing slowly Wednesday.

The South West should build to the 10-12ft range later Monday with 3-4ft sets in Mandurah and 3ft waves across Perth but with strong W/NW tending W winds, peaking Tuesday to 12ft+, 3-5ft and 3-4ft respectively working from south to north.

The South West will continue to see strong W'ly winds on Tuesday while more variable E/NE winds are likely in Perth and Mandurah with lots of lump.

Now, the models diverge on the positioning and strength of the next round of frontal activity moving in from the west, with the more accurate European solution having it further north and quicker.

This means the window between the next bout of onshore winds will be small with strengthening N/NW winds due on Wednesday as the swell eases further (fresh N/NE to the north early).

This next flurry of activity looks significant though, generating XL W/SW swell through the end of next week/weekend but with onshore winds. The American solution has much weaker activity so check back here on Friday for a clearer idea on this.