Brief window Fri with a couple of good/great days on the radar next week
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 10th May)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Solid storm surf for winter spots Wed/Thurs
- Winds easing Thurs with lumpy but improving conditions
- Potential window of good winds Fri AM with solid leftover surf
- Mostly onshore winds this weekend
- Favourable winds expected early next week with solid swells
Recap
Fun sized surf in the 3-4ft range between the Cape yesterday had a window of clean conditions under NE winds before winds tended more NNW in the a’noon. Today is more of a write-off with a front slamming the SW of the state bringing onshore W’ly winds and a stormy, building surf to 6-10ft, smaller 3-4ft in Mandurah, 2-3ft in Perth.
This week and next week (May10 – May 19)
The front passes overnight with a residual S’ly flow tending light and variable during the day as a high centre quickly passes over the SW land division. Plenty of bump and onshore sea state is still expected tomorrow so it may be another lay day. Size in the 8-10ft range is expected as swell from the deep low below the front makes landfall. Keep an eye on it through the day as it cleans up and possible becomes surfable at the more protected spots. 3ft surf in Mandurah and 2-3ft surf in Perth will be all day options.
We should see a window of NE winds Fri morning as a high moves quickly into the Bight, and a front approaches, with winds tending NW in the a’noon. Leftover sets to 6ft+ between the Capes , smaller 2-3ft in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth will ease back during the day with winds tending onshore in the a’noon.
Into the weekend and winds don’t look great, tending mod/fresh W-W/SW Sat as a front tips the state and then S’ly on Sun (SE in Perth). Size to 5-6ft Sat may allow some protected spots to be utilised, moreso on Sun.
Monday looks a much better bet as a large high pressure band moves in across the SW of the state, bringing SE to E’ly winds which look likely to extend into most of next week.
As mentioned Mon a strong, zonal storm tracking past Heard Island Fri develops a wide swathe of seas to 20-30ft as it tracks between 80-110E (see below). This rolling fetch will generate moderate SW swell for Mon, up into the 6-8ft range, holding Tues morning , before easing. Expect 2-3ft surf in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth.
Further ahead and smaller pulses from trailing W’ly winds hold pulsey 4ft surf through Wed-Fri with offshore winds. These small/mod pulses look to continue into next weekend under a suppressed storm track, but we’ll keep tabs on that and see how it’s shaping up Fri.