Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed March 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate SW pulse Tues PM/ holding Wed AM with ESE-SE winds
• SE winds most of next week with another pulse Fri
• Moderate reinforcing SW swells this weekend with more ESE- SE’ly winds
• Pattern looks to continue into next week- small/mod SW pulses and ESE-SE winds

Recap 

Not much on offer yesterday with tiny surf across the region and just a few 2ft sets between the Capes until a swell rise in the a’noon. Today has seen more solid SW swell in the water with 4-5ft surf in the Margarets region under offshore E/SE winds, smaller 1-2ft in Perth and Mandurah. Winds tended more S-SSW in the a’noon and freshened, especially north of Margaret River. 

Solid sets this morning with offshore winds

This week and next week (Mar 23 - 31)

No great change to the slow moving pattern which is seeing a blocking high (1034 HPa) well to the SW of the state maintain a ridge of high-pressure across the SW with an inland trough enhancing ESE-SE winds through the morning. This stuck pattern looks to remain in place right through the end of this week and over the weekend, and even into early next week.

With winds taken care of, ESE-SE every morning fresh and gusty before late seabreezes we’re looking at a regime of continuing small/mod SW swell from rolling disturbances along a zonal, suppressed storm track which is occupying the Indian Ocean between 55-60S as they traverse the open stretch under WA. 

This will hold surf in the 4ft range through tomorrow between the Capes, smaller 1-2ft in Mandurah and 1-1.5ft in Perth. A stronger pulse from this pattern fills in Fri a’noon with size building to 4-5ft between the Capes, 2ft in Mandurah and 1-2ft in Perth. 

Trailing fetches in the storm track then hold surf in the 3-4ft range over the weekend in the SW, smaller 1-2ft in Mandurah, 1ft in Perth.

Into next week and small, residual SW swell from the above mentioned storms should hold size in the 3ft range through Mon/Tues, tiny in Perth/Mandurah.

Long range WSW swell from a compact low which flares up near on the other side of Heard Island Fri/Sat supplies some 3ft sets Wed. 

The storm track then gets suppressed again by a strong mid Indian ocean high with another zonal disturbance flaring up Tues next week expected to supply anther pulse by Fri next week, in the 5-6ft range under current modelling. Winds look to establish that E-SE pattern during this time frame.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.