Average period with winds set to spoil swell
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday February 25th)
Best Days: Monday in the South West, protected spots Wednesday morning in the South West and Mandurah, Thursday morning in the South West
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Easing surf on the weekend with strong S/SE winds (tending SE Sun AM)
- Inconsistent mid-period SW swell building Mon, peaking Tue with a stronger pulse of less consistent groundswell later in the day, easing Wed
- E/SE-SE tending SW winds on Mon, strong S/SW on Tue and strong S tending S/SW Wed
- Better SE winds Thu AM as the swell eases
Recap
Wednesday afternoon's increase in low period swell eased back a touch into yesterday morning with wind affected 3ft surf on the coast, improving through the day as winds shifted more offshore ahead of late sea breezes. Today there's a touch more swell in the water with good winds for semi-protected spots.
This weekend and next week (Jan 26 – Mar 4)
The weekend doesn't look too crash hot with today's slight bump in swell due to ease under a strong S/SE breeze tomorrow, tending a touch more SE on Sunday morning but being smaller.
We've got our fun pulses of SW swell due into next week but besides Monday morning, the wind outlook unfortunately looks to spoil most if not all of the swell.
The frontal progression linked to the swell is currently spread out west and east of the Heard Island region with an initial weak low being followed by a much stronger one, with a fetch of gale to severe-gales being aimed through our swell window.
This low will weaken with it racing quickly east, generating a weaker but favourable fetch of strong to near gale-force W-W/NW winds.
This weaker fetch will generate some new SW swell for Monday which will fill in through the day and likely build from 3-4ft in the morning to 4ft+ into thr afternoon across the South West, tiny in Perth and Mandurah. Winds should be offshore from the E/SE-SE through the morning with weak sea breezes, while a trough will bring poor, strong S/SW winds through Tuesday that will shift more S'ly into Wednesday morning.
On Tuesday we should see a peak in mid-period SW swell to 4-6ft across the South West, 1-1.5ft in Mandurah and 1ft+ in Perth, with the less consistent groundswell arriving later in the day, pulsing to 6ft+, easing slowly from a similar size Wednesday morning. Mandurah should ease from 1-2ft on Wednesday morning.
Those S'ly winds will severely restrict surfing options with winds due to shift back to the SE on Thursday morning but with smaller easing sets from 4-5ft in the South West, tiny across Perth and Mandurah.
Longer term we should see some better swell activity developing into next weekend and early the following week as some better Southern Ocean frontal activity fires up south-west of us later next week. Winds look to be more favourable as well but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!