Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon October 25th)

Best Days: Wed morning, Fri morning and Sat morning all have good winds with small surf

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mostly onshore surf likely from Tues as mid-latitude low approaches region, small window of good wind Wed AM
• Small window of good winds Fri AM and Sat AM with modest surf
• Larger pulse Sun but suspect winds
• Stormy onshore surf likely to build Tues/Wed next week

Recap

Solid surf on Sat exceeded f/cast expectations as leftovers from Fridays strong swell pulse maintained 6-8ft sets in the Margarets region, with smaller 3-4ft surf in Mandurah, 2-3ft in Perth. Light offshore winds kept prime conditions on offer until lunchtime. Surf dropped through Sunday with 3-4ft surf between the Capes, smaller 1-2ft north of Bunbury and a morning offshore wind. Onshores have re-established today as a trough moves inland with 4-5ft at Margarets and onshore WSW winds making a mess of things.

This week and next week (Oct 25 - Nov5)

A trough has moved inland and a mid-latitude low is approaching the SW of the state, bringing an onshore flow that is likely to tend NW to N through tomorrow. The low then crosses the South-West land division on Wed, bringing several wind changes through the day as it moves inland. 

There’s not a great deal of swell to work with in the short term, with SW swell from an earlier incarnation of the low expected to bring surf in the 3-5ft range through Tues, easing further into the 3-4ft range through Wed and Thurs. 

Wed looks to have the best wind as the low moves across and winds tend NE/SE through the morning. 

S’ly quarter winds then establish through Thurs and Fri with a chance of light SE/ESE winds Fri morning but again with the Indian Ocean in a suppressed state due to a large blocking high there won’t be much size to play with, more 3ft surf at exposed breaks between the Capes and tiny north of Bunbury to Perth.

The next increase in swell is nothing major, a small increase in mid period SW swell generated by a disturbance on Thurs /Fri in the area between 90-110E between 40-50S. The initial winds in the storm are poorly aligned for WA, with a slighty later incarnation better positioned but as the storm is weakening. That system is expected to generate a modest pulse of new SW swell for Sun in the 4ft range between the Capes, smaller 1-2ft for Perth and Mandurah. Winds look only OK, with a high in the Bight and an approaching ridge bringing S’lies, which may tend SE through the morning. 

This pattern holds for Mon with similar winds. 

It’s a not a great week by any means.

Longer term and onshore winds set in again as an approaching front and low that tracks aggressively NE early next week, generating large seas and swell, before easing in strength and slamming the SW. Unfortunately that is likely to see both onshore winds and swell arrive simultaneously, likely building in size Tues and peaking Wed with a speculative size in the 6ft+ range. 

Plug in the small windows if you can, plenty more onshore days to come.

Check back Wed for a full update.