Good swell for late today and more so tomorrow, with a larger swell early next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday October 8th)

Best Days: Protected spots tomorrow, Sunday morning, Wednesday protected spots, Thursday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Mod-large mid-period SW swell building late today, peaking tomorrow AM with mod-fresh S/SE tending S/SW winds (SE in Perth and Mandurah)
  • Easing SW swell Sun with moderate E/NE tending N and then N/NW winds (SW further north into the PM)
  • Large SW groundswell for Tue with strong S/SW winds
  • Easing SW swell Wed with S-S/SW winds in the South West, SE further north in the AM
  • Easing SW swell Thu with E tending SW winds
  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building late Fri, peaking Sat AM

Recap

Poor surf across the South West but clean and fun to 2ft across Mandurah and Perth yesterday morning, while Mandurah was the only decent option this morning, onshore in the South West with improving conditions but tiny surf in Perth.

This weekend and next week (Oct 9 - 15)

We've got a fun weekend of waves on the cards across the state as our new SW groundswell fills in later today and peaks tomorrow morning. This has been generated since the middle of the week by dual polar lows and patchy fetches of W/SW gales being projected towards us from the Heard Island region.

The swell should provide good 8ft sets across the South West tomorrow morning, easing through the day with easing surf from 3ft in Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth.

Winds will be best for Perth and Mandurah, SE through the morning ahead of S/SW sea breezes, while Margaret River looks to see mostly S/SE winds, tending more SE for periods across the northern half of the cape.

Sunday morning will be nice and clean with a moderate E/NE offshore, though this will quickly shift N'ly late morning and then N/NW in the South West and SW across Perth and Mandurah.

Size wise, the groundswell will be easing and back to mid-period energy with dropping sets from the 5-6ft range in the South West, 2ft+ in Mandurah and 2ft across Perth.

Smaller surf is due Monday morning but we'll see a strong cold front projecting from the Heard Island region, up into the state bringing strengthening W/NW winds ahead of SW change.

Perth and Mandurah look to see early lighter N winds at dawn but with no real size.

This frontal system will form tomorrow evening and project gale-force W/SW winds up towards us, generating a large SW groundswell that will arrive through Tuesday.

Unfortunately winds will remain strong from the S/SW on Tuesday as the swell peaks with 10ft+ surf due in the South West, 3-4ft across Mandurah and 3ft in Perth, improving Wednesday in Perth and Mandurah as a high starts to move in. This will bring SE offshore winds, with S'ly winds across the South West as the swell still comes in solid but on the ease.

Thursday is the cleanest but we'll be looking at smaller, weaker surf on the backside of the swell.

The easing trend will be slowed somewhat by some reinforcing energy, but we'll have a closer look at this on Monday. Longer term a fun, new W/SW groundswell is due next weekend (generated south-east of South Africa) with decent winds, but check back here after the weekend. Have a good one!

Comments

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 6:59pm

Feels like it's been a prolonged winter compared to last winter. Lots of wind out of the W quadrant throughout early October....not complaining down here but i'd imagine the Margs crew are getting mighty antsy about now. This is coming off what is being reported as one of the wettest winters in recent memory in the SW.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 7:05pm

Where you located if you don’t mind me asking?

Denmark?

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 7:39pm

.. or Windy?

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 7:44pm

haha. Can't give too much away Blowin! South Coast mate. ;-)

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 8:05pm

I understand! Just curious cause I have spent a little bit of time down there. Good people kicking around. Probably the loosest crew I’ve ever met but decent, genuine people. I love it down there. The coast is something else.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 8:19pm

Yeah it's a magic part of the world. Where i live isn't actually a town, and i cover miles and miles of coast in general. But you're spot on regarding the general attitude down South..., it's a loose and very eclectic crew but alot of warmth down here. Been good for me. Needed to chill out a bit! haha.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 9:02pm

It was weird when I lived there. A lot of young deaths amongst core crew which you’d think would temper behaviour but instead propelled them to extremes. Whether those extremes would have been reached without the untimely exit of rock solid relationships is anyone’s guess but that’s what happened and that’s how local crew evolved and I admire their resilience and fortitude in the face of the most serious of life’s dilemmas.

I don’t really know those crew beyond acquaintance, but it’s hard not to feel for them and the shit they went through years ago and respect what they’ve done in promoting the hardest of hard core surfing cultures in their home breaks.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 9:34pm

Yeah that's pretty heavy. Good reminder to keep spreading the love and look out for each other. We're all just trying our best at the end of the day. Sunny days are always just around the corner and the more we can lean on each other to get to them the better for us all. :)

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 9:47pm

Btw...watched another friend getting buried yesterday, (cancer) so in a pretty deep and reflective mood about it all.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 9:55pm

Life is short….get stuck in.

This isn’t a dress rehearsal. This is IT.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 10:05pm

Yep! Good call. Cheers Blowin.

groundswell's picture
groundswell's picture
groundswell Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 7:14pm

5 good days in a row for kalbarri. small today but i believe there's already a new swell kicking in, havent checked yet but according to here and another site.Its been a good winter and spring here but too many tourists and pests from Gero stealing shit etc...ruins the town.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 7:17pm

Stoked you're getting waves and not so much of the Westerlies up there Groundy. Holidays over Monday. Yew!

groundswell's picture
groundswell's picture
groundswell Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 8:58pm

nah its still tiny but people are somehow surfing. 4 days in a row, up until yesterday.
IGA is empty and after the fishing comp people have left town..nice.

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Friday, 8 Oct 2021 at 7:54pm

I am over drizzle. Sooner the drizzle pisses off the better.