Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st May)

Best Days: Selected spots tomorrow and Sunday

Recap

Much smaller surf yesterday with the swell dropping away from 3-4ft across the South West, tiny in Perth and Mandurah. Conditions were favourable all day though and this morning we've got stronger offshore winds and a building mix of long-period W/SW and SW groundswells.

Perth and Mandurah were tiny with 3-5ft waves in the South West, but we should see the swell building through the day. 6ft+ sets are no showing in the South West and we should see the swell magnets reaching 8-10ft, 3ft across Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth. While a little slow going this morning keep an eye on the cams for this new energy.

Sets showing and even bigger now..

This weekend and next week (May 2 - 8)

It's worth noting from the get go that the forecast models are under-representing the coming days of long-period swell with much more size than shown due across all coasts.

This afternoon's strong mix of new long-period groundswells are due to peak overnight, easing back tomorrow from 6-8ft tomorrow, 2ft to occasionally 3ft in Mandurah and 2ft+ across Perth. The possible late arrival of the swell today could help provide a bit more size on the coast into tomorrow, though we'll see.

Winds will be similar though slightly weaker than today, fresh to strong from the E/NE, tending NE through the day and then easing while tending N/NE, more variable to the north.

We then look at our larger and better W/SW groundswell due into Sunday and Monday.

The back to back mid-latitude storms linked to these swells have already come and gone firing up south-east of Heard Island and projecting east-northeast to a position above Heard Island. The first and strongest generated a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds (shown on ASCAT below), while a secondary slightly weaker but broader front quickly fired up on its tail and pre-activated sea state.

Large, long-period surf should build through Sunday from the first low, likely around 6t+ at dawn across the South West but building to 10-12ft on the swell magnets, 3-4ft in Mandurah and 3ft across Perth.

The secondary swell will slow the easing trend into Monday with sets dropping from 10ft+, 3ft+ and 3ft respectively.

Looking at the local winds and unfortunately we'll be dealing with a fresh N/NE breeze from dawn Sunday swinging more N'ly into the afternoon and then N/NW later. Monday will then be poor with fresh to strong NW tending W/NW winds and then strong W/SW into the afternoon as a mid-latitude front pushes in from the west.

This will be the first in a series of not overly strong but annoying mid-latitude lows as they bring onshore winds with Wednesday looking to be large and stormy from the W/SW.

Later week we may see a stronger polar frontal progression firing up through our southern swell window generating a good swell for next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!