Large swell this week as winds tend north

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 26th July)

Best Days: South West tomorrow morning, Wednesday, Thursday selected spots (Friday more so), Perth and Mandurah Sunday and Monday mornings

Recap

Good to great waves across the South West over the weekend, clean and easing from 5-6ft Saturday , a bit slow Sunday morning ahead of a new inconsistent SW groundswell into the afternoon. Mandurah and Perth were best Saturday to 2-3ft, and 2ft respectively, smaller Sunday.

Today, the increase in SW groundswell seen yesterday afternoon is now on the ease but with great conditions again and easing 4-6ft waves in the South West, 2ft in Mandurah and Perth.

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This week and weekend (Jul 30 – Aug 4)

We'll see yesterday's swell continuing to ease into tomorrow, but conditions will be good across the South West magnets in the morning with an E/NE offshore, shifting N/NE through the day and likely variable across the northern end of the cape into the afternoon.

Size wise, easing sets from 4-5ft are expected, small to tiny in Perth and Mandurah.

Wednesday morning will start small but a new long-period W/SW groundswell is due to arrive into the afternoon, with a secondary kick overnight, peaking Thursday.

This was generated since late last week and through the weekend by a strong frontal progression moving through the southern Indian Ocean, generating fetches of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds.

The progression didn't quite reach the strength forecast on Friday, but we'll still see a large and good quality W/SW groundswell, boosted by an additional fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds in our swell window, west-southwest of us tomorrow.

We should see Margs building to an easy 8ft by dark Wednesday afternoon, peaking Thursday morning to 10ft, 3ft in Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth.

Winds on Wednesday will be great most of the day, E'ly offshore, tending more E/NE and the N/NE into the afternoon before going variable. Thursday will then be suited only to selected breaks with fresher E/NE tending N/NE-NE winds.

Stronger N/NE tending N winds will then limit options further come Friday as the swell eases.

Onshore winds will then move in Saturday as the swell eases further, owing to a strong mid-latitude low encroaching from the west. This low is forecast to generate a fetch of slow moving W/SW gales in our western and then south-western swell windows later this week, producing a large W/SW groundswell for Sunday.

Size wise, we're looking at surf to 10-12ft range in the South West at this stage, 3-4ft in Mandurah and 3ft in Perth along with good winds to the north, but weak lingering onshore winds in the south.

Monday doesn't look much better (wind wise in the South West) as the swell eases, but more on this Wednesday.

A larger follow up swell is likely mid-next week from a more polar located storm, but we'll have another look at this on Wednesday.