Very slow period ahead

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 1st February)

Best Days: Swell magnets in the South West Thursday and Monday mornings for desperate surfers

Recap

Good fun surf across the South West yesterday morning with stiff offshore winds and 4ft of swell, a touch smaller to 3-4ft today. Perth and Mandurah were tiny yesterday and even smaller this morning.

This week and weekend (Feb 2 - 5)

It's all down from here unfortunately.

Over the coming period we'll see smaller mid-period energy from the S/SW as a blocking pattern sets up to our west.

This blocking high will deflect fronts from our main swell windows, with weak polar activity skirting around its south-east flank, through our southern swell window.

Some small S/SW swell will stop the South West going flat tomorrow and Friday, offering 2-3ft waves across magnets.

A slightly stronger S/SW groundswell pulse is due to fill in Saturday, produced by 'strongest' of the polar systems, currently on the polar shelf.

In saying, this, inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets are due to develop through Saturday, back to 2-3ft on Sunday and then smaller Monday, near flat Tuesday.

During this period Mandurah and Perth will become tiny to flat.

Conditions will be best tomorrow morning with an E/SE offshore, giving into afternoon sea breezes, while Friday and Saturday will see less favourable S/SE winds. Slightly better but fresh SE winds are expected Sunday morning while Monday will be clean again with a gusty E'ly but the swell will be lacking.

We should hopefully see some better swell later next week/weekend from a stronger polar low forming in our swell window, but we'll have another look at this Friday.

Comments

uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy Thursday, 2 Feb 2017 at 2:20pm

Here's one for you guys, chasing thoughts on north of Perth for winds on Friday, tomorrow morning.

Swellnet - Southerly 16-19 knots
MetEye - Perth ENE 5-10, Lanno 0-5
Bom marine - metro 10 variable, Lanno SE 15-20 becoming variable
Seabreeze - southerly 16-17 knots
Wind guru - SSE 10-14 knots
Willy weather - rottnest 4.9 knots and Lanno 3.9 knots

Normally just run with MetEye and willyweather but all the others are offering such contrasting conditions of a 15knot southerly drift to glass off 5knots ENE

Cheers

uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy Thursday, 2 Feb 2017 at 2:22pm

Wind prediction, the dart board's ready to go

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 2 Feb 2017 at 2:59pm

Looks S'ly out to sea, but inshore we're looking at light SE-E/SE breezes through the morning.

uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy's picture
uncle_leroy Thursday, 2 Feb 2017 at 3:04pm

Cheers Craig
Def won't be any surf around, contemplating a run for some fresh fish