Average end to the week, large swell for the weekend and early next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 2nd Novemeber)

Best Days: Saturday as the swell builds before the sea breeze, possibly dawn Sunday, protected spots Monday, Tuesday morning

Recap

Tiny waves around Perth and Mandurah but clean conditions each morning, while swell magnets around Margs have been the best the last couple of days.

This week and weekend (Nov 3 - 6)

Tomorrow is expected to reveal similar sized waves to today with a mix of small easing S/SW swell and new SW swell for the afternoon. Magnets around Margs should see 3-4ft sets for the most part, tiny around Perth and Mandurah.

Winds tomorrow are average for the South West with an onshore W/SW tending W/NW breeze and while Perth should see early S/SE breezes, there's no swell. Friday should be a bit cleaner in the South West with a morning S/SE'ly and slight lift in size from the change to 3-5ft or so.

Our large long-period and inconsistent W/SW groundswell due for the weekend is still on track, with satellite observations confirming a fetch of 50-60kt core wind speeds being generated through our swell window by a slow moving polar low.

This system is slowly weakening just north-west of Heard Island but will continue to aim a fetch of W/SW gales through our swell window until early Friday morning.

With this we'll see a prolonged W/SW groundswell event, with long-period fore-runners around 22s from the core fetch arriving early Saturday morning.

The swell should then build strongly into the afternoon, reaching 6-8ft by dark at swell magnets in the South West, maybe 1-2ft in Perth if we're lucky, with a peak Sunday to around 8ft with 10ft sets.

Perth should see infrequent 2ft+ waves.

Monday is likely to hang around a similar if not slightly smaller size, easing off from 6ft+ Tuesday morning.

Conditions are expected to be good Saturday morning ahead of the swell with E/SE offshores, with afternoon sea breezes, and then Sunday unfortunately sees an onshore SW change move in around dawn. There's a possibility for an early offshore, but we'll review this Friday.

Monday looks a little dicey with S/SE winds, and straighter offshores Tuesday, but more on this Friday.