Large swell with light winds tomorrow

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 2nd May)

Best Days: Margs tomorrow morning, Perth Tuesday and Wednesday morning, protected spots around Margs and Perth Thursday morning

Recap

A large peak in new S/SW groundswell Saturday across the South West but with onshore winds, while further north Perth and Mandurah were cleaner with good 2-3ft sets, easing back more from the 2ft range Sunday.

Conditions varied across the cape yesterday with onshore winds from Cape Leeuwin north to around Margs and more variable winds up towards Naturaliste through the morning.

Today onshores were in across all locations in the South West as the swell reached a low point, while Perth and Mandurah were cleaner but tiny.

This week and weekend (May 3 - 8)

Our large S/SW groundswell is still on track tomorrow, with a vigorous polar low firing up in the Heard Island region generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds before projecting north-east towards the Bight under the influence of the Long Wave Trough.

An expansive fetch of severe-gale SW winds are now being generated through our southern swell window, helping to prolong the swell event through into Wednesday morning as it starts to ease.

We should see the swell build strongly from dawn, building to a large 10-12ft across the exposed reefs in the South West and 3ft in Perth through the day.

Conditions are looking less than perfect but workable across the South West tomorrow with a light variable SW breeze likely through most of the day, while cleaner conditions are due to the north through the morning ahead of sea breezes.

A drop in size is due through Wednesday from 8-10ft in the South West across exposed breaks but freshening onshore W/SW winds will create poor conditions. Perth will be clean and easing from 2-3ft.

Into Thursday the easing trend will be stalled as an unfavourably aligned but strong pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales move up through our swell window Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping 6ft sets hitting the South West. Perth won't see much of this swell with 1-2ft waves.

Conditions Thursday will be better in the South West with a morning S/SE breeze, more E/SE around Perth, while Friday will be back to onshores as a small mid-latitude pushes into the state.

A moderate to large sized and short-range SW swell is due off this low, building later Friday with strong onshore SW winds, peaking Saturday morning in the 6ft+ range with 2ft sets around Perth.

Onshore S/SW winds look to keep conditions average with yet another approaching front bringing onshores and easing surf.

Longer term we've got some decent W/SW groundswell pulses on the cards from later next week with hopefully lighter winds, but more on this Wednesday.

Comments

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Monday, 2 May 2016 at 6:17pm

There'll be somewhere .