Sub-standard period ahead

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 15th January)

Best Days: Swell magnets in the South West Saturday morning, Wednesday and Thursday mornings in the South West

Recap

Easing 3-4ft sets across the South West with strong offshore winds, more manageable into the late morning, middle of the day, while further tiny unsurfable waves were seen.

Today was clean again but only surfable at the swell magnets in the Margaret River region as the swell bottomed out.

This weekend and next week (Jan 16 – 22)

A new SW groundswell should start to kick through tomorrow with morning offshores from the E/NE ahead of afternoon sea breezes. Exposed breaks around Margs are due to build to 3-4ft into the afternoon, easing back a touch into Sunday. Perth will remain tiny to flat tomorrow, with Sunday possibly showing 0.5-1ft sets but that's about it.

A secondary slightly stronger SW groundswell is due later Sunday and early Monday to 3-5ft, with 1ft sets around Perth, but there'll also be some short-range S'ly tending S/SW swell in the mix Monday. This will be generated by a mid-latitude low forming right off the South West tip of the state, aiming a fetch of strong to gale-force S'ly tending S/SW winds into the Margaret River region.

As a result strong S'ly winds are due to move in Sunday, swinging more S/SW Monday creating poor conditions.

Tuesday should see winds start to veer back to the S'th, with easing amounts of SW and S/SW swell, although there won't be enough size for any decent options in protected locations around Margs.

The next pulse of groundswell will be from the S/SW on Wednesday and Thursday morning from a strong but late forming polar frontal progression to our south-southwest over the weekend.

The swell from this progression isn't expected to really impact Perth, with 1-1.5ft sets max due later Wednesday and Thursday morning, while Margs should build to 4-5ft through Wednesday at exposed breaks and ease from 3-5ft Thursday morning.

Conditions will improve with SE winds due Wednesday morning and better E/SE offshores as the swell easing Thursday.

Longer term the outlook remains quiet as a large blocking high develops to our south-west through early next week, deflecting storms away from our main swell windows.

This is likely to break down into next weekend at the same time a tropical cyclone drifts in from the central Indian Ocean, but we'll have a closer look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!