Victorian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday March 19th)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow ahead of the change, Saturday morning Surf Coast, Monday morning both regions, Tuesday exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S/SW groundswell tomorrow with strengthening N-N/NW winds, shifting W/NW early PM ahead of a mid-late PM SW change
• Moderate sized W/SW-SW swell building Fri (peaking in the PM), easing Sat
• Fresh S winds Fri, easing through the day
• Variable W/NW winds Sat AM ahead of a freshening S/SW breeze from late AM
• Moderate + SW groundswell building Sun, peaking in the PM, easing Mon
• Freshening S/SE-SE winds Sun, variable offshore Mon AM ahead of sea breezes
• Easing swell Tue with N/NE winds ahead of sea breezes
• Moderate + sized, inconsistent W/SW groundswell Wed with SW winds

Recap

Monday’s large swell started to ease through yesterday but held in the 4-5ft range across the Surf Coast magnets with much cleaner conditions that improved through the morning before sea breezes kicked in.

Today a reinforcing mid-period swell ahead of a larger groundswell this afternoon is providing easy 4ft waves on the Surf Coast magnets again with good conditions and the exposed beaches are a solid 6ft.

This afternoon’s stronger groundswell should reach 6ft on the Surf Coast with 8ft sets to the east along with a shift in winds to the E/NE.

This week and weekend (Mar 20 - 23)

This morning’s and this afternoon’s pulses of swell were generated by a strong polar low to the south of the country earlier in the week, and we’ll see the size peaking this afternoon/evening before easing back slowly through tomorrow.

The Surf Coast should back off from a good 3-5ft with 6ft+ sets to the east and winds will have a touch of north in them through the morning, strengthening ahead of a shift to the W/NW early afternoon ahead of a SW change mid-late afternoon.

Unfortunately this change will leave lingering, fresh S’ly winds on the coast Friday morning, easing into the afternoon with more variable breezes out of the W/NW due to kick in Saturday.

Swell wise, a weakening polar frontal system projecting up towards us yesterday and today should generate a moderate sized increase in mid-period W/SW swell for Friday, building to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast into the afternoon and 5-6ft to the east, easing Saturday from 3ft and 5ft respectively with those better winds.

Make the most of the window on Saturday morning, as Sunday looks average thanks to winds swinging back to the S/SE-SE, creating bumpy conditions.

Our new SW groundswell due to build through the day Sunday is on track though, with a strengthening low moving in from the south-west of Western Australia due to generate a good fetch of W/SW gales through our south-western swell window while tracking east towards Tasmania.

A moderate + sized SW groundswell should reach 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east Sunday afternoon, easing Monday from 3-4ft and 6ft respectively west and east of Melbourne as winds go variable and locally offshore.

Tuesday morning looks temporarily smaller and good for the beaches under a N/NE offshore, while a mix of moderate + sized mid-period and W/SW groundswell energy should fill in Wednesday.

The groundswell is already starting to be generated by a strong but distant polar low forming west of the Heard Island region, with it due to push east while generating severe-gale W’ly winds. This low will then weaken on approach to Western Australia, adding the mid-period energy to the mix.

It’ll be inconsistent but the Surf Coast should offer 3-5ft sets with 6ft+ waves to the east though local conditions are still up for grabs. More on this Friday.