Victorian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday March 7th)

Best Days: Tomorrow ahead of sea breezes, Sunday exposed beaches, Monday morning exposed beaches, Wednesday morning, Friday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing mix of swells tomorrow with, light, local offshore winds ahead of sea breezes mid-PM
• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell Sun with strengthening N-N/NE winds, easing and tending N/NE into the PM
• Smaller Mon AM with light, local offshore winds ahead of sea breezes mid-PM
• Late increase in inconsistent W/SW groundswell Mon, peaking Tue with fresh E winds, tending SE
• SE windswell in the mix Tue
• Easing surf Wed with light NE winds, tending SW through the day
• Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell likely later Thu, peaking Fri with fresh N/NE winds

Recap

Conditions were poor yesterday morning with a building windswell across all locations that improved into the afternoon a little as winds backed off in strength.

Today we’ve got a shift in winds to the east along with a mix of new mid-period W/SW and SW swells (along with some SE windswell) that are solid and to 5-6ft on the exposed beaches to the east, peaky and wind affected on the Surf Coast and to 3ft to occasionally 4ft.

This weekend and next week (Mar 8 - 14)

Today’s mix of swells are due to ease over the weekend with conditions being great for the exposed beaches as high pressure pushes slowly east, under the state.

Light, local offshore winds are due across both regions tomorrow morning with sea breezes kicking in around mid-afternoon along with easing 2ft sets on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft to the east.

On Sunday, a less than ideal W/SW groundswell is showing on the charts, with it generated by the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Garance forming into a tight but poorly structured low to the south-west of Western Australia.

This low generated a pre-frontal fetch of N/NW gales aimed away from our swell window with the fetch tweaking more W/NW-NW through today but still being poorly aligned while tracking south-east towards the polar shelf.

Regardless we’re probably still likely to see inconsistent 2ft sets on the Surf Coast from this source on Sunday with 3-4ft sets to the east and a strengthening N/NE-N breeze through the morning is due to shift back more N/NE into the afternoon, favouring exposed beaches.

Monday now looks clean again across both coasts with light, local offshore winds ahead of weak sea breezes but fading levels of swell that look tiny on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east through the morning.

Later in the day but more so Tuesday, our more reliable but inconsistent groundswell from a strong polar low that traversed the Heard Island region is expected.

As touched on in Wednesday’s update, a great but distant fetch of severe-gale W’ly winds were generated, weakening while tacking more east-northeast towards Western Australia yesterday, leaving the groundswell to arrive Monday afternoon but peak Tuesday morning.

Inconsistent 3ft+ waves are due on the Surf Coast with 4-6ft sets to the east, but a shallow trough moving through Monday evening will be followed by high pressure, quickly swinging winds to the E.

The exposed beaches will likely be too solid while some SE windswell is due to be in the mix on the Surf Coast, with Wednesday likely fairing best as the swell eases under light, morning favourable winds.

Into the end of the week, another long-range but moderate sized SW groundswell is due, produced by a healthy polar low forming to the east of the Heard Island region on the weekend.

This looks to be met with N/NE winds, while we could see some larger surf developing later next weekend. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!